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Football tips, predictions and best bets: FA Cup, League One and League Two for Saturday 25/1/24
Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
2pts Ben Brereton Diaz to have 2+ shots in Sheffield United vs Brighton at 10/11 (Paddy Power)
2pts Cheltenham to score 1+ goals vs Derby at 17/20 (General)
1pt Joe Taylor to score anytime in Lincoln vs Peterborough at 15/4 (bet365)
0.75pt BTTS in both halves in Altrincham vs Eastleigh at 12/1 (bet365)
Sheffield United vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/7
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
BEN BRERETON DIAZ’s Sheffield United full debut was almost perfection.
I say almost because Brereton Diaz missed a ‘big chance’ (xG greater than 0.30) to put the Blades ahead but the Chilean international had already scored the equaliser. He hit four shots in total, two on target, and generated an xG of 0.79.
Although Premier League survival seems a matter of when not if, Chris Wilder will be keen to maintain the momentum he’s built at Bramall Lane so should name a strong XI here which would see Brereton Diaz continue on the left.
At a shade of odds on, his price to have 2+ SHOTS appeals on Saturday.
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (25/01/24)
Lincoln vs Peterborough
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/2 | Draw 13/5 | Away 8/11
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
JOE TAYLOR was a constant threat against Derby last weekend.
The Luton loanee looked lethal on the counter, hitting five shots in total and squandering three ‘big chances’ (xG greater than 0.30). It means in two appearances for the Imps he has racked up an xG of 1.01 without finding the net, so he is due one.
Taylor scored 11 at Sky Bet League Two’s Colchester in the first half of the campaign, averaging 0.51 goals per 90.
The jump up in quality to League One must be acknowledged but the frontman looks to have adapted to the level immediately. His price to SCORE ANYTIME appeals this weekend.
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (25/01/24)
Derby vs Cheltenham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 18/5
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
It's interesting that, when you look at Derby's results this season, a small pattern starts to emerge on the sort of teams that have picked up points against them.
Of course, this is a top side in England's third tier so they will beat most teams, but those who have been successful to an extent are those who play direct football.
Shrewsbury and Stevenage have secured maximum returns, while Wycombe secured a point in their visit to Paul Warne's side. Enter, Cheltenham, who also drew with the Rams back in October.
You can get around 2/1 on the double chance in favour of the away side, but I'll take the 'safety net' of the 17/20 for CHELTENHAM TO SCORE 1+ GOALS.
They may have been shut out in trips to Bolton and Northampton, but they were on a run of scoring in six games on the road before that. They scored twice past Portsmouth in their recent encounter.
Despite Derby's good position in the table, they've conceded in each of their last five home league games.
Odds correct at 0950 GMT (26/01/24)
Altrincham vs Eastleigh
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 18/5
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
I pushed for this game to be included as a home win in the latest episode of the This Week's Acca podcast, but I was overruled and we looked elsewhere.
The reason for that? My word, Eastleigh just can't defend. To their credit though, their attack is bailing them out a little bit.
You can get 12/1 on BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN BOTH HALVES which is a big-priced play that has potential.
We need Altrincham to play their part, of course, but this is an Eastleigh side which has conceded four goals in three of their last four league outings - remarkably, they've gained a point in two of those games.
It's no surprise then that this bet has landed recently. The Spitfires' goal difference standing at -4 despite scoring 50 this season paints the picture nicely.
Both teams have scored in five of Alty's last six at home too, so while they have been strong in front of their own supporters, they have been conceding.
Odds correct at 0935 GMT (26/01/24)
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