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Football tips, predictions and best bets: Europa League and Europa Conference League for Thursday 15/02/24
Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
Europa League:
1pt Kerem Akturkoglu to be carded in Galatasaray vs Sparta Prague at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Olivier Giroud to score anytime in Milan vs Rennes at 13/8 (bet365)
1pt BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in Braga vs Qarabag at 7/5 (Boylesports)
Europa Conference League:
1.5pts Over 3.5 goals in Ajax vs Bodo/Glimt at 11/8 (Betfair)
Galatasaray vs Sparta Prague
- Kick-off time: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports (red button)
- Home 4/6 | Draw 11/4 | Away 15/4
- Galatasaray vs Sparta Prague odds, form and stats in our new and improved live match centre
Galatasaray are rightly firm favourites to win this first leg, the Turks in scintilating form, winning eight straight in all competitions.
The bet that catches the eye though is for their winger KEREM AKTURKOGLU TO BE CARDED at 7/1.
He was substituted at the weekend after 47 minutes with his team 2-0 up, with coach Okan Buruk saying it was more precaution and that he will be fit for this.
The Turkish winger is having an excellent season for the Super Lig leaders, scoring 12 and assisting seven, but interestingly he has also picked up six yellows and a red - eight yellows and a red if you include his games for the national team.
He is in fact the second most carded player this season for Gala, making this price a head scratcher.
This game is overseen by referee Alejandro Hernandez Hernandez - so good they named him twice - and he is a cracking appointment for a game that will be full-blooded and hopefully full of cards. The Spaniard has averaged a whopping 5.44 yellow cards per game this season, dishing five reds too in his 18 outings.
If Arturkoglu isn't fit enough to start, it's likely we see Baris Yilmaz, and his price of 4/1 looks large too given he's averaged 0.36 cards per 90 this season.
Milan vs Rennes
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 8/13 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/1
- Milan vs Rennes odds, form and stats in our new and improved live match centre
OLIVIER GIROUD tops AC Milan’s charts for goals scored in Serie A this term (11), he only managed one goal in the Champions League though.
Context is important here, Milan were in the ‘group of death’ alongside PSG, Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund. The Italian side did only find the net five times in UEFA’s premier competition.
It wasn’t for a lack of effort either. The French forward had 13 shots in five appearances, generating an xG of 2.58.
As Rossoneri’s odds-on price suggests on Thursday, they are expected to win and siding with their top goalscorer TO SCORE ANYTIME makes sense.
The drop down in level will suit Giroud, who has pedigree in the Europa League, netting 14 times in 20 appearances for Arsenal and Chelsea.
Odds correct at 1510 GMT (13/02/24)
Braga vs Qarabag
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 4/11 | Draw 15/4 | Away 13/2
- Braga vs Qarabag odds, form and stats in our new and improved live match centre
While this tie may not jump off the page as an obvious entertainer, I think it has all the hallmarks of being an excellent high-scoring two legs.
Braga have been nuts for goals this season, with both teams scoring in 27 of their 37 contests (73%) in all competitions, over 2.5 goals clicking in 25 of those (68%) and seeing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS on 22 occasions with a 59% strike rate, so at a price of 7/5 here, that simply has to be backed.
Across their 10 games in Europe, half of their games have seen this bet land, and Qarabag's recent form brings this bet to life.
Admittedly in a weak league, but the Azerbaijani side's last six games have seen BTTS + Over 2.5 goals - those six seeing Qarabag fire 20 and concede 11.
In the Europa League they have scored in nine of 10 outings, even away at Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen, with the BTTS + Over 2.5 bet landing in 50% of their games.
This bet should be closer to even money.
Ajax vs Bodo/Glimt
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports (Red Button)
- Home 1/2 | Draw 7/2 | Away 17/4
- Ajax vs Bodo/Glimt odds, form and stats in our new and improved live match centre
Betfair’s price of 11/8 about OVER 3.5 GOALS to be scored in Ajax’s Europa Conference League game with Bodo/Glimt stands out as it is a touch bigger than generally available across most other firms.
The Dutch sides 28 games in all competitions this campaign have seen 122 goals, that is 65 scored, 57 conceded and an average of over four a game.
This bet has clicked in 20 of those matches and half of their Europa League group games which includes the six goal thriller against Marseille and 3-1 win over AEK Athens at the Johan Cruyff Arena.
The visitors are also good on the goals front. Including the qualifying rounds, Bodo/Glimt have played 12 games in this competition and half have seen at least four goals scored.
Odds correct at 1535 GMT (13/02/24)
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