Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
2pts Watford to beat QPR at 10/11 (General)
1.5pts MK Dons double chance v Wrexham at 13/10 (General)
1pt Plymouth to beat Huddersfield at 6/5 (General)
1pt Oxford to beat Cambridge at 7/5 (Unibet)
1pt Danny Johnson to score anytime in Morecambe v Walsall at 13/5 (William Hill)
Plymouth v Huddersfield
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST
- Home 23/20 | Draw 23/10 | Away 12/5
Joe Townsend (@JoesterT)
It was an unforgettable 2022/23 for PLYMOUTH as they racked up 101 points to win the Sky Bet League One title, immediately bouncing back from the disappointment of missing out on the play-offs on the final day 12 months earlier.
Success across their past two campaigns has been built upon a phenomenal record at Home Park, with 20 victories from 23 last term and the fourth-best home record in the third tier in 21/22.
Neil Warnock pulled off yet another miracle by keeping Huddersfield in the Championship via an incredible turnaround in their final 10 games (W6, D3, L1) but the expected goals (xG) data suggests those results are unsustainable without a marked improvement in performance.
Given Town's limited summer business that looks unlikely, and starting the season with a 350-mile trip to a Pilgrims side who have won 34 of their last 46 home games could well see the Terriers come unstuck.
Score prediction: Plymouth 1-0 Huddersfield (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 1300 BST (04/08/23)
In all honesty, I'm not truly sure what to expect from Watford this season, but I have serious doubts about QPR.
Gareth Ainsworth has long been linked with the R's job, yet his time at the club has been far from happy following his arrival earlier this year.
Only Reading (9) picked up fewer points than QPR (11) over the final 13 games of last term, all fixtures that Ainsworth was in charge for.
At a general price of 10/11, WATFORD TO WIN provides appeal.
Those concerns about the visitors here aren't just limited to myself it seems. QPR are now 5/2 second-favourites for the drop having been 4/1 a couple of weeks ago.
Watford's lack of patience with managers means that this is a fixture Valérien Ismaël knows they can't afford to lose - it's set up to be an ideal start to the season for the Hornets.
Score prediction: Watford 3-0 QPR (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (04/08/23)
Cambridge v Oxford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST
- Home 2/1 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/10
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Anyone who has listened to the 'This Week's Acca' podcast will know I am high on Oxford this season. The U's have the potential to be right in the automatic promotion mix in what is a much weaker edition of Sky Bet League One this term.
A 19th-place finish last season was an extremely bad representation of Oxford's season, as they ranked sixth best on underlying numbers, highlighting just what a good platform they have to build upon this term.
Liam Manning, who guided MK Dons to a third-place finish a few years ago, was brought in at the back end of the season and guided them to safety, and the moves in the transfer window - notably the addition of Ruben Rodrigues but also loanee Stanley Mills from Everton - means they should be battling near the top end of the table this time around.
On opening day they are away at Cambridge - yes it is 'the boat race derby' and also the 'U's derby' - a side who are favourites to be relegated and survived by the skin of their teeth last season.
This should be a great opportunity for OXFORD to start their campaign with a WIN, even on the road. After all, last season they ranked as the seventh best travelers according to underlying numbers.
Score prediction: Cambridge 0-2 Oxford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1415 BST (04/08/23)
Morecambe v Walsall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST
- Home 6/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 17/10
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
Walsall’s campaign last term could quite simply be divided into two halves – the first half of the season with Danny Johnson and the second half without him.
During the striker’s loan spell from Mansfield, he scored 12 goals in 22 Sky Bet League Two games and helped the Saddlers into a position to challenge for the play-offs.
The Stags took him back in January and Walsall fell off the pace but now he's back on a permanent deal.
Johnson has form in the fourth tier, netting 17 goals for Leyton Orient in 2020-21 as well as last season's haul, and he could not wish for better opening-day opposition than Morecambe.
The Shrimps shipped 78 goals in 46 games in being relegated from Sky Bet League One and odds of 13/5 on Walsall’s biggest threat breaching their defence look inviting so back JOHNSON TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Score prediction: Morecambe 1-2 Walsall (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1425 BST (04/08/23)
Wrexham v MK Dons
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST
- Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/1
Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore)
It’s understandable that the media circus surrounding Wrexham and their Hollywood owners has sucked in TV viewers but it seems the bookmakers are falling hook, line and sinker too.
As impressive as the Dragons’ National League winning campaign was, they have not only failed to strengthen their squad in the summer, they’ve also lost top scorer Paul Mullin to a punctured lung in a showy pre-season tour of America.
And yet, without their best player, they are 8/13 favourites to open their return to the Football League with victory over an MK Dons side who are as big as 9/2 in places.
I find this astonishing. There were two divisions between these sides last season. I don’t begrudge Wrexham being favourites at home but the disparity in odds between the two seems much, much too large.
The away win price tempts but when the DOUBLE CHANCE on MK DONS is available at a plump 13/10, it makes sense to back that instead to have the draw in our corner too. Try both if you fancy.
Score prediction: Wrexham 0-1 MK Dons (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1505 BST (04/08/23)
More from Sporting Life
- Sunday's best bets: Goals on the menu
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
