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Football tips: Euro 2024 qualifying best bets and previews
Our Sporting Life football team finished the domestic season in great form, and return with their best bets from across the Euro 2024 qualifying action.
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifying
1.5pts Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 3+ Total Shots at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Hungary v Lithuania at 11/8 (Betfair)
Hungary v Lithuania
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Viaplay
- Hungary 1/7 | Draw 6/1 | Lithuania 18/1
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Hungary are prohibitive favourites to beat Lithuania on Tuesday, but I don't expect them to rack up a score, and siding with UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the selection at a large 11/8 price.
The hosts have seen the Unders land in nine of their last 15 home internationals, and that includes games against teams such as Estonia and Cyprus who are ranked similarly to Lithuania.
Hungary just aren't that good in attack to suggest they can romp to victory here, or that the Overs should be a short favourite, especially after a paltry 0.21 xGF outing in a goalless draw last time out.
Defensively they are solid though, and Lithuania represent a poor side, but they do hang around in matches.
Across their last 15 internationals, they have won just once, but the Under 2.5 Goals selection has landed on 12 occasions - including all of their last eight.
In that 15-game span they have conceded a steady 24 goals, but have scored just five, and have only been beaten by a margin wider than two goals once.
They may not be good, but Lithuania hang tough and frustrate.
Score prediction: Hungary 2-0 Lithuania (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1820 BST (18/06/23)
Liechtenstein v Slovakia
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Viaplay
- Liechtenstein 33/1 | Draw 12/1 | Slovakia 1/25
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)
Liechtenstein are as big as 45/1 in places to win this game, and that's a fair reflection of just how bad they are.
The Blue-Reds are ranked 199th in the FIFA World Rankings... out of 211 teams. There are only 12 teams on the planet that are ranked worst.
They come into this game having lost 19 of their last 20 international matches, with the game in which they avoided defeat clearly a fluke - a 1-1 draw away at Armenia in a game they lost the shot count 28-3 and allowed 10 shots on target.
That was one of only three games in that 20 match span in which Liechtenstein have hit the back of the net, so a Slovakia win to nil makes enormous appeal if you can get on at the 4/5 offered in a couple of places.
This bet has landed in 17 of Liechtenstein's last 20 games, a strike rate of 85% which would imply odds of 1/5.
Even at home, this bet has landed in nine of their last 10, where they have lost by an aggregate of 1-32.
Slovakia aren't exactly a juggernaut of European football, but they have made a bright start to their qualifying campaign, winning two and drawing the other of their three games, keeping two clean sheets in the process.
Away from home they have won four of their last six - all against much better opposition than they face on Tuesday - with three of those four victories coming with an accompanying shut out (56th ranked Finland, 98th ranked Belarus and 124th ranked Azerbaijan).
General prices in the region of 8/15 probably still underestimate the likelihood of the return becoming 18 in 21 and those looking for accumulator options on Tuesday night need search no further.
Score prediction: Liechtenstein 0-2 Slovakia (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1930 BST (18/06/23)
Scotland v Georgia
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1
- Scotland 4/9 | Draw 3/1 | Georgia 6/1
Read Jake Osgathorpe's full preview here
At the heart of the vibrant Georgian attack is Napoli star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and he has license to do what he wants when on national duty, being his country's difference maker.
That means we see him shoot on sight, racking up some eye-watering shot numbers.
Across his last eight competitive international matches - the earlier three of the games saw him deployed as a hybrid wing-back, he now plays predominantly as a number 10 - his shot stats read as such with most recent first; 6, 5, 5, 2, 6, 2, 4, 6.
That is an incredible run and highlights just how quick 'Kvaradona' is to pull the trigger. An average of 4.5 shots per game. He hasn't been very accurate with them mind (shots on target most recent first; 0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 2, 2, 2).
Despite Scotland being strong favourites to win here and keep a clean sheet, I'm happy to have a play on KVARATSKHELIA 3+ TOTAL SHOTS given the data presented.
This bet is odds-on in places, so the 6/4 available should be snapped up.
Score prediction: Scotland 2-1 Georgia (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1440 BST (19/06/23)
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