Michael Beardmore has registered almost 7pts profit this season in his Saturday Seven column and he peruses the 3pm accumulators to provide his picks, including a best bet.
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- Saturday Seven Nap 21/22: +9.8pts profit | 12% return on investment
- Saturday Seven Nap 22/23: +6.75pts profit | 26.5% return on investment
Football betting tips: Saturday best bet
3pts Tottenham to beat Bournemouth at 5/7 (SBK)
There’s no denying Bournemouth have over-achieved on their return to the Premier League – but the key word is over-achieved: on expected goals (xG), they should sit bottom, not 14th.
TOTTENHAM have put away all bottom-half opposition this season (P5 W5) while the Cherries have picked up points against bottom-half teams but the big boys have all swept them aside. The away win is too short here.
BRENTFORD have become a reliable team to back at home so it’s a pleasant surprise to see them odds-against when goal-shy Wolves pay a visit on Saturday.
Wolves have lost five of six, scoring just two goals in that run, and unrest is rife over delaying the appointment of a new manager until 2023 – they are the division’s third worst team on away metrics while the Bees are top-six on home form.
BURNLEY are on fire in the Sky Bet Championship, winning seven games in an unbeaten 12-match run to go top of the second tier. It’s no fluke, their Expected Goals process has them deservedly top.
Visitors Reading began well but have lost three of their past four – and are not great travellers, beaten five times in seven away games so the Clarets should be backed confidently at Turf Moor.
Another team on the slide is Wigan, losing five of their past six, with off-field financial issues rumoured to be again rearing their head.
WATFORD have been up and down since Slaven Bilic took over but are totally worth a play at 29/20 generally after beating both Luton and Stoke 4-0 recently as well as edging out Norwich.
After six wins out of nine – including four in five at home – BOLTON have been one of Sky Bet League One’s most consistent sides in the past few weeks.
Visitors Oxford have won just one in seven and have struggled for goals all season (15 in 14 games) which should prove a problem against the third tier’s meanest defence (played 15, conceded 11).
A price I cannot ignore in League One is LINCOLN away at Port Vale with a number of firms going 7/2 or north. The price is simply too high for those seeking value for singles or doubles.
The two teams are evenly matched but the Imps are four places higher and have won four of eight away this season, including 1-0 wins at second-placed Ipswich and Barnsley plus a 6-3 thrashing of Bristol Rovers.
It’s also a shock to see STEVENAGE odds-against at Colchester, given Sky Bet League Two’s second-placed outfit have won five of their past seven.
The U’s sit 23rd after seven defeats in 11 and have netted just 12 times in 15 games - they are relegation material.
Odds correct at 2100 BST (26/10/22)
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