Mark O'Haire returns with his best bets across this weekend's action, featuring Premier League final day fixtures.
Football betting tips: Mark O'Haire
3pts Leicester to beat Southampton and Over 1.5 Goals at 23/20 (Unibet)
1.5pts Tottenham to win to nil v Norwich at 6/5 (Betfair)
Leicester v Southampton
- Kick-off time: 1600 BST, Sunday
- Leicester 17/20 | Draw 29/10 | Southampton 14/5
Brendan Rodgers believed a draw was the “very least the players deserved” as Leicester shared the spoils against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Thursday night. The Foxes lost the shot count 20-2 and were dominated in the second-half but showed plenty of resilience to remain in the running for an eighth-placed Premier League finish.
Regardless of Rodgers’ positivity, it’s been an underwhelming campaign for Leicester, yet the Foxes remain keen to finish with a flourish. Prior to picking up a point in the capital, Norwich and Watford were comfortably swatted aside and City should be capable of producing something similar when Southampton arrive at the King Power on Sunday.
Southampton have long since tailed off. Saints put in a below-par performance against a much-changed Liverpool in midweek at St Mary’s, and Ralph Hasenhuttl’s changes succumbed to an eighth league defeat in their last 11 Premier League outings. Worryingly, the south coast club have shipped multiple goals in nine of those contests.
Over the course of the season, Saints have been beaten in half of their away days, allowing a hefty 2.17 goals per-game on the road. In fact, Southampton have conceded at least twice in 14 of their previous 18 games as guests, silencing only two hosts along the way. More often than not, the visitors have been too fragile to trust on their travels.
In contrast, Leicester are looking to cement a top-half position and have regularly excelled at their KP base despite their selection woes throughout the season. Exclude efforts against the top-five, and Rodgers’ outfit have returned W8-D4-L1 on home soil, scoring twice or more on eight occasions. A repeat should therefore be well within range here.
Backing LEICESTER TO WIN AND OVER 1.5 GOALS gives us an attractive 23/20 (2.15) shot with Unibet and sees us paid out should the Foxes pick up maximum points by any scoreline that’s not 1-0. A huge 86% of the hosts’ league outings have produced two goals or more with Southampton also delivering Over 1.5 Goals in 81% of their own Premier League dates.
Norwich vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 1600 BST, Sunday
- Norwich 12/1 | Draw 11/2 | Tottenham 1/5
Tottenham are understandably too short to support ahead of their curtain-closer at Carrow Road on Sunday. Spurs can secure a top-four finish by avoiding defeat against already-relegated Norwich with the market giving Antonio Conte’s charges a 95% chance of clinching Champions League qualification this weekend.
However, the leap in price from the standard 1/4 (1.25) offering on a Tottenham triumph to the 6/5 (2.20) available on a SPURS WIN TO NIL just looks a bit too big to turn down, even if Cristian Romero fails to recover from injury in time to travel to Norfolk.
The North Londoners have undoubtedly improved in both boxes under Conte and should expect to collect top honours here considering Norwich have been nilled in 57% of their overall Premier League matches, including half of their Carrow Road contests.
The Canaries have scored just once in five fixtures and managed two goals in seven games against top-four opposition. Strip things back further and City have been beaten without scoring in 10 of their 13 match-ups against top-six teams, whilst also failing to score in 14 of their 19 showdowns with top-half sides during their doomed season.
Norwich boasted the worst attacking process in the division this term, but their figures have worsened since relegation was confirmed. The hosts have conjured up an average of only 0.50 Expected Goals (xG) per-game and just 4.50 shots in the box on average across their most recent four encounters, making the Canaries ideal final-day opponents for Spurs.
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