- ASTON VILLA to beat Crystal Palace
- NORWICH to beat Stoke
- LINCOLN to beat Carlisle
- GILLINGHAM to beat Morecambe
ASTON VILLA are serious flat-track bullies. Between losing 5-1 and 3-0 at Newcastle and Liverpool they have scored 16 goals and conceded once in beating Everton, Hibs (twice) and Burnley, and stretched their winning run at Villa Park to nine matches.
Of Unai Emery's 30 league games in charge, six of their eight defeats have come against teams who finished in the Premier League's top five last season. Crystal Palace haven't beaten a team who finished in the top seven last term for more than a year.
NORWICH have started strongly on the pitch and on the spreadsheets, sitting fifth in the actual table and with the best expected goal difference (xGD) in the Sky Bet Championship. They are averaging more than 2.0 xG per game and madcap 4-4 draw at Southampton aside are allowing just 0.6 xGA per game.
Stoke sit 16th, which fairly reflects their mediocre start. Despite putting 10 goals past Rotherham in league and cup, they have scored just three across their other five matches.
LINCOLN are unbeaten in five since losing on the opening day and have beaten both Wycombe and Blackpool 3-0 in their only home games so far. They welcome a Carlisle side who are winless on the road and rank as League One's worst travellers according to the data, generating a measly 0.41 xGF per away game.
Sky Bet League Two leaders GILLINGHAM’s strong defence puts them in a good place against a Morecambe side who are struggling to create. Neil Harris’s men limited Harrogate to just 0.09 xG in victory last week and their latest opponents have lost both their away games without scoring.
Not only did Morecambe create only 0.80 xG across defeats at Mansfield and Harrogate, they allowed an alarming 6.53 at the other end.
Every week Tom Carnduff is joined by Jake Osgathorpe and Joe Townsend to thrash out who will feature in the coming Saturday's 3pm accumulator, running through a list before settling on what they believe is a potentially winning fourfold - aiming for a minimum 10/1 price.
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Odds correct at 0930 BST (15/09/23)
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