The football on Friday night comes in the Sky Bet Championship where Cardiff take on Fulham. Tom Carnduff has a stats-based best bet.
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2pts Aden Flint to have 1+ shots on target at 11/4
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Cardiff v Fulham (Friday, 1945 BST, Sky Sports Football)
Fulham have started the season as expected in the Sky Bet Championship, sitting fifth with nine points from a possible 15.
For Cardiff, they are finding it harder to adapt. Neil Warnock's men have just two wins from five and have struggled to find early consistency.
The positive for them is that both of those victories have come at home. A much-changed side were convincingly beaten by Luton in the Carabao Cup in midweek but you get the impression that the focus is fully on the league campaign.
Unsurprisingly, Cardiff are a good side in the air and that could work in their favour against a Fulham team who struggle when it comes to aerial duels.
They've lost more aerials than they have won in games this season, with four of the six contests in all competitions seeing the opposition coming out on the better side of that statistic.
We should expect Cardiff to add to that tally here in fairly convincing fashion. Their home win over Luton saw the Bluebirds near double the number of aerial duels won.
That will play into the hands of someone like Aden Flint, who is likely to be tasked with keeping Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic quiet on the night.
He'll also be expected to pose a threat going forward, particularly at set-piece situations. The centre-back has posted two shots in three of his five league games this season and he's capable of doing the same here.
A best price of 11/4 is available on Flint to have one or more shots on target in this contest, which looks fantastic value given the aerial mismatch and the fact he already has one goal on his tally.
Score prediction: Cardiff 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Opta facts
- The last two league meetings with Cardiff and Fulham at the Cardiff City Stadium have ended 4-2 – Fulham won in December 2017 and Cardiff won in October 2018 by that scoreline.
- Fulham are looking to secure consecutive league wins over Cardiff for the first time since November 1996.
- Cardiff have lost just once in their last 12 Championship home games, winning 10 in the process (D1 L1).
- Fulham have won nine of their last 14 away games in the Championship (exc. play-offs), losing just twice (D3).
- Cardiff manager Neil Warnock has won seven of his 10 home Football League matches against Fulham (W7 D2 L1).
- Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic has failed to score in his four league appearances against Cardiff, although he’s provided two assists in those games.
Odds correct at 1115 BST (29/08/19)
