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Fiorentina v West Ham tips: Europa Conference League final best bets and preview
West Ham face Fiorentina in the final of the UEFA Europa Conference League. Liam Kelly has four fancies in his preview of the game.
Football betting tips: Europa Conference League final
2.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/13 (Unibet, VBET)
1pt Thilo Kehrer to commit 2 or more fouls at 7/5 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5pts Cristiano Biraghi to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet, BetUK)
0.5pts No Goalscorer at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
All selections are regular time only.
A definitively poor piece of UEFA scheduling means their third tier club competition is the second to reach a conclusion on Wednesday night.
The Europa Conference League takes a back seat for the majority of the season, even for the clubs involved, but there is no doubt that it is taken seriously in the final stages, despite its infancy.
This final is a chance for Fiorentina and West Ham to add to their substantial history, an opportunity to add European silverware in an otherwise humdrum campaign for both.
With that opportunity, however, comes the fear of losing at possibly the worst point of the journey. It is why we endure so many bad final games.
We saw it just last week when Sevilla and Roma served us up a plate of absolute slop.
Only a first half mistake that led to a Roma goal made the Europa League barely watchable for the remainder. Before that, very little was happening.
Unfortunately, I think we can expect another rather banal final match-up in Prague. Indeed, it was a surprise to see UNDER 2.5 GOALS in regular time offered up at a price of 10/13 in places.
Despite allowing three goals across the two semi-final legs against Basel, Fiorentina limited their opponents to just one big chance and 1.84 expected goals against (xGA), displaying an ability to defend well.
That can be seen in their most recent Serie A matches, too, averaging 1.02 xGA per game across the last 10 — with a couple of big outliers included.
I wouldn't exactly associate David Moyes' West Ham with a swashbuckling style, either.
He appears to have valued defensive solidity in the knockout rounds of the Europa Conference League when playing away from the London Stadium, conceding only one while scoring just four across those three fixtures.
It's easy to see the Hammers employ similar tactics against a side that gave Inter a scare in the Coppa Italia final two weeks ago.
As a result, NO GOALSCORER looks a bit of value at 8/1 with Sky Bet, too.
Not wanting to put all my eggs in the 'this game will be boring' basket, a further two bets make appeal in the player markets and can be added to the staking plan.
THILO KEHRER has been deployed at right-back in West Ham's vital end-of-season fixtures and his price TO COMMIT 2 OR MORE FOULS appears too big.
Available at 7/5 with PaddyPower and Betfair's Sportsbook, Kehrer ranked third in fouls conceded for West Ham this season (31), despite not playing a full schedule.
Likely to be pitched against Nicolás González, who has been fouled 55 times in just 1,458 Serie A minutes this term (3.40 per 90), or maybe the tricky Jonathan Ikoné and Christian Kouamé, the German international might be in for a rough game no matter who plays on Fiorentina's left.
At smaller stakes, CRISTIANO BIRAGHI TO BE SHOWN A CARD is the final selection at a best-priced 4/1.
Fiorentina's captain was only booked once in Serie A in 2022/23, but just four teammates committed more fouls than the left-back.
Biraghi has been shown a card four times in this competition, however. He faces the tough task of trying to keep Jarrod Bowen relatively quiet.
Bowen has drawn 21 more fouls (84) than any other Hammers player this season and can get Biraghi in trouble.
Fiorentina v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/13 (Unibet, VBET)
- 1pt Thilo Kehrer to commit 2 or more fouls at 7/5 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
- 0.5pts Cristiano Biraghi to be shown a card at 4/1 (Unibet, BetUK)
- 0.5pts No Goalscorer at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
All selections are regular time only.
Score prediction: Fiorentina 0-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (05/06/23)
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