Paul Higham is going for a rare away win down the Amex with Burnley tipped to take advantage of Brighton's FA Cup exploits to take three points.
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1pt Burnley to win at 3/1 (General)
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Brighton v Burnley (1730 GMT on BT Sport 1)
Brighton have a tremendous home record and their continued progress in the Premier League comes as a direct result of the points they pick up at the Amex, but the stars could be aligned for Burnley to bag a surprise away win from their long journey south.
All the stats point to a low-scoring affair, and the Clarets certainly have a decent enough record against the Seagulls to suggest that a win is by no means out of the question, and the timing is spot on with Brighton having had FA Cup extra time to deal with during the week.
Behind the bare stats though, Burnley have been finding their feet under Sean Dyche after a nightmare start to the season, and the recent display at Old Trafford in particular pointed to them being back to their hard-to-beat best.
The effort and energy they will be able to put into Saturday evening's performance may prove tough to match if there's any FA Cup hangover from Brighton's players, so if you like to target an away win against the odds then this could be your chance.
Betting guide
Prediction: Brighton 0-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
This game just looks like a low-scoring Burnley win - everything surrounding the game, the recent record between the two sides and their form seems to line up perfectly for a close game, but we'll go with the Clarets to pinch it.
Best bet: Burnley to win at 3/1
These games are so tough to call, but if you have a strong view either way then you're usually rewarded with some decent prices. There's been a lot to like about recent Burnley displays despite them drawing three out of the last four - and while Brighton are great at home they have had successive 0-0 draws, meaning a narrow loss is not exactly a stretch.
Goals: No first half goals at 11/8
Expecting this to be a slow burner with plenty of hustle and bustle but no first half goals to show for it. 0-0 is a popular scoreline for Burnley's away games this season and they'll play this one the same way as well - staying in the game for the first half and then trying to pinch it in the second.
RequestABet: Burnley to win, under 3.5 total goals and less than 10 match corners at 9/1
Brighton v Burnley Opta stats
- There has been just one goal scored in the three previous Premier League clashes between Brighton and Burnley, with the Seagulls failing to score on each occasion (D2 L1).
- Burnley are looking to do the league double over Brighton for the third time in their history after the 2011-12 and 1972-73 seasons.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last six league matches against Brighton, although the first five games in this run ended level (W1).
- Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their league encounters with Brighton (14/29); their best such ratio against a side in their history (min. 20 games).
- Brighton have won only one of their last 10 Premier League games (D3 L6), beating Everton at the end of December.
- Only one of Brighton’s seven home defeats in the Premier League has come against a side from outside of the ‘big six’ (0-2 v Leicester in March 2018).
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games (W3 D3), with only Manchester United on a longer current run without defeat (8).
- Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored five goals in his last eight league starts against Brighton, although he’s failed to net in five of the last six.
- After netting seven goals in his first seven home Premier League games this season, Brighton’s Glenn Murray has failed to score in his last five at the Amex Stadium.
- With Joe Hart starting in goal this season, Burnley have won just three of their 19 Premier League games (16%), conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game. With Tom Heaton starting, the Clarets have won three of their six Premier League games (50%), shipping just 0.8 goals per game.
Odds correct as of 0000 GMT on 08/02/19
