Richard Jolly delves into the numbers behind Bruno Fernandes’ performances and the excitement around the midfielder, generated not merely by his exploits for Sporting Lisbon, where he scored 48 goals in his last 18 months, but in England.
(First published March 6)
His first five league games for Manchester United have produced two goals, three assists and an average of two points per match which, if they had maintained all season, would put them just behind their neighbours.
A catalytic figure already looks both a crowd favourite and a talisman. Fernandes promises to be transformative figure; in terms of how many goals United score, which department of the team they come from and which part of the pitch.
United are the lowest scorers in the top five and have underperformed their expected goals this season, with 42 goals from an xG of 46.58. As two of their three most prolific players, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood, have actually over performed considerably – the Frenchman with 10 goals from an xG of 8.48 and the teenager five from an xG of just 2.02 – in particular, it reflects a failing in the attacking midfield positions Fernandes now occupies. Andreas Pereira has one goal from an xG of 2.29, Juan Mata and Jesse Lingard none each from 1.21 and 1.89.
Fernandes represents their antithesis, with two goals from an xG of 1.40. If it is a small sample size and includes a penalty, while he benefited from an error from Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford on Sunday, there are other indications of his willingness to shoot and capacity to get in threatening positions. The Portuguese’s xG per 90 minutes is 0.35, which is bettered only at Old Trafford by Martial and the runaway leader Marcus Rashford (0.72). Compare him with other attacking midfielders and wingers and it is evident he poses far more of a threat: Daniel James and Pereira are twinned on 0.14, Mata fractionally ahead on 0.15 and Lingard at 0.19. Each is far nearer defenders Brandon Williams (0.12) and Marcos Rojo (0.10) than Fernandes.
Fernandes shows far more similarities with the injured Paul Pogba. In one sense the Frenchman, with no goals from an xG of 1.90, is one of the worst offenders. In another, his average xG of 0.33 per 90 minutes is Fernandes-esque (albeit again influenced by one penalty). An extraordinary outlier is United’s other January recruit: Odion Ighalo has an xG of 4.09 per 90 minutes, showing he has had golden chances in his cameos, though his only goals have come in the knockout competitions.
Fernandes has seemed an immediate upgrade in terms of creativity. Aided by his set-pieces, he already has two assists, level with Mata and Pogba, one behind Pereira and two ahead of the impotent Lingard. The most significant element may be that his corner, which Harry Maguire headed in against Chelsea, was only United’s fifth set-piece goal this season, excluding penalties.
However, Fernandes may actually be less of a supplier in open play than imagined: his xA90 (expected assists per 90 minutes) of 0.18 is actually lower than those of Mata (0.25), Pogba (0.24), Pereira (0.24) and level with that of James. Only Lingard, with a mere 0.11 – suggesting he would merit one assist for every nine full games – trails far behind him.
But in the four games he has played, he has nonetheless felt United’s creative fulcrum. His xA in that time, of 0.71, is much the highest, with his closest challengers – Fred, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Nemanja Matic and Luke Shaw – all occupying very different roles. Mata (0.11 from 105 minutes on the pitch) and James (0.09 from 263) have created virtually nothing.
Over those four games, Fernandes averages a goal involvement every 90 minutes; over the season, so does City’s Kevin de Bruyne, even if his eight goals and 16 assists dwarfs the Portuguese’s two and three. He has sustained his impact for far longer, though a back injury means he could miss a first match-up with Fernandes.
Because De Bruyne presents a relevant comparison. They have a shared willingness to take a chance to make something happen. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer compared Fernandes to Juan Sebastian Veron, saying “risks the ball like Seba.” Perhaps like De Bruyne, too: the Belgian’s pass completion rate of 81.7 percent is the second lowest of any City outfield player, after Sergio Aguero, and far below Pep Guardiola’s other central midfielders; David Silva, at 87.3 percent, is the closest.
Fernandes’ pass completion rate, at 76.1 percent, is lower still; only the little-used Diogo Dalot, Marcos Rojo and Tahith Chong, have a worse numbers. But if United’s figures reflect a lesser emphasis on possession and a greater reliance on counter-attacking, it is notable that Mata and Lingard, at over 87 percent, are far more accurate in their passing. De Bruyne and Fernandes seem to have an unofficial trade-off: fewer safe passes that boost personal numbers for more attempts to unlock a defence.
So far Fernandes is averaging two key passes per game, which puts him behind only the injured Pogba and far ahead of United’s other attacking midfielders; Pereira, at 1.3, is nearest. That determination to score or create is shown in the shooting statistics. He looks United’s shotaholic, with an average of 4.0 efforts per game that puts him some way clear of top scorer Rashford, on 3.4, let alone anyone else. He is adding a long-range threat that United lacked: he averages 3.0 attempts from outside the box; no one else is over 1.5.
Fernandes stands alone: not just at United, or in Manchester, but across the Premier League. Mohamed Salah, with 3.8 shots per match, ranks second. De Bruyne, at 1.7, has the next most long-range shots for anyone in a category largely dominated by clean-striking midfielders; Jonjo Shelvey, Ruben Neves and James Maddison are all in the top seven.
It all points to a directness, shooting regularly and from distance and giving United another dimension, but also to how Solskjaer have built around him. United have had the most shots from outside the box this season but, until Fernandes let fly at Goodison Park, they only had three goals from long range.
It has been a trend in football for efforts from distance to become rarer as figures show they rarely go in. Fernandes may be the exception to the rule at Old Trafford as United look for a long shot who proves a winner.
