Fiorentina bid to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit as they travel to Basel in the Europa Conference League semi-final return. Michael Beardmore has two best bets.
Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
1pt Basel (Draw No Bet) at 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Sofyan Amrabat to be shown a card at 3/1 (BetVictor, PariMatch)
- Aggregate score: Basel 2-1 Fiorentina
FC Basel stand on the brink of a first ever major European final thanks to last week’s 2-1 Europa Conference League semi-final first-leg win in Florence.
But despite that result, Fiorentina are odds-on to win the second leg in Switzerland, even if the hosts remain marginal favourites to progress overall.
I can’t shake the feeling Basel are being slightly disrespected – while the Conference League isn’t choc full of quality, they’ve beaten decent sides in Trabzonspor, Slovan Bratislava and Nice to get here.
Fiorentina do not arrive in the greatest vein, having lost four of their past eight in all competitions and they will need to rediscover their form from earlier in the season to turn this tie around.
I think this second leg is far closer, over the 90 minutes, than the bookmakers suggest and therefore backing BASEL (DRAW NO BET) at 13/5 is our first tip.
You can get 15/4 on a home win and I wouldn’t put you off but we have to bear in mind a draw is enough for Alexander Frei’s side. Therefore backing the Draw No Bet is the smarter option as we profit nicely with a Basel win but also get our stake returned if the second leg ends level.
The Double Chance (Basel or draw) was also a consideration here but at 6/5 top price, that looks a bit skinny in comparison to other prices mentioned.
Of equally good value, if not better, is the 3/1 on offer for Fiorentina midfielder SOFYAN AMRABAT to be SHOWN A CARD.
The Morocco man has racked up 11 bookings in 28 Serie A appearances this season and he averages 1.8 fouls per game – those are both the joint second highest figures among the hundreds of players plying their trade across the Italian top flight.
There’s every chance Basel approach this game as the 'away' side – protecting their lead and trying to catch Fiorentina on the break. That game state bodes well in drawing a tactical foul from a player like Amrabat, no stranger to the referee’s notebook.
FC Basel v Fiorentina score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Basel (Draw No Bet) at 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 1pt Sofyan Amrabat to be shown a card at 3/1 (BetVictor, PariMatch)
Score prediction: Basel 1-0 Fiorentina (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct 1430 BST (17/05/23)
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