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Fantasy Football tips and advice: Transfers and captains for Gameweek 38
After a drama-filled season with twists and turns at almost every corner, the 2020/21 Premier League campaign reaches its conclusion on Sunday.
Gameweek 38 of England's top flight will decide the European places, with two Champions League spots still up for grabs, although we know that Manchester City are champions and that Fulham, Sheffield United and West Bromwich Albion will all be returning to the Sky Bet Championship.
For fantasy football players, it's one final chance to gain points for final positions in the overall standings and mini-leagues.
When is the FPL Gameweek 38 deadline?
As it is the final day of the Premier League season, all games will kick off at 16:00 BST meaning that the FPL deadline is at 14:30 BST - an hour and a half before kick-off.
Sky Sports Fantasy Football players will be able to see team news from all 20 teams before making transfers and captaincy choices prior to games getting underway at 16:00.
Do you gamble or play it safe? It depends on current position. The final day will be one of playing the percentages or hoping for points that many others won't have and that is based on whether or not you're ahead or trailing in those leagues.
If there is a 20+ point gap to make up, it's well worth a gamble at this point. Anything smaller may need more of a balance while those ahead can look to the 'big hitters' as captaincy choices as that is what the large majority of players will be going with.
For FPL players, check and use any chip that is available. Free Hit, Triple Captain and Bench Boost will be common this week as many will save at least one to use on the final day - although it's not a necessary move to guarantee success.
For Gameweek 38, we discuss strategy, potential transfers and captaincy choices.
Should I transfer in Sergio Aguero?
- Position: Forward
- Sky cost: 11.8
- FPL cost: 10.3
“Can he make the weekend? I hope so, I hope so," said Pep Guardiola on Sergio Aguero's chances of being fit for Manchester City's final Premier League game against Everton at the Etihad.
It's a huge risk to include Aguero in any fantasy football teams. He's struggled with injuries throughout the season and it's hit-and-miss if he will be fit enough for involvement on the day that City receive the trophy. Guardiola's press conference is likely to take place on Friday - check his comments in this before committing to an Aguero transfer.
However, if he is fit, it would be cruel not to allow him involvement from the start in his last game in front of the Manchester City home supporters. A club legend, his ten-year spell with the champions will be coming to an end in the summer and a move to Barcelona is expected.
Not only is it a chance for Aguero to say farewell, he's also chasing another record. He needs one goal to equal Wayne Rooney's record of 183 goals scored for one club in the Premier League - with two goals enough to claim sole ownership.
If, and it still feels like a big if, Aguero is involved for City on Sunday, they will surely be looking for him to finish with a goal. There may be some sentimental attachment to this selection but he could be a huge differential player if he is involved - any opportunity to score and City will want him to have it.
After all, this is a City team scoring plenty and they should go fairly strong to try and build some momentum for the Champions League final. Having Aguero leading the line will see him have numerous opportunities to score against an Everton team who have become really hot and cold.
We wait and see what Guardiola says on Aguero's fitness and his chances of being involved, but if he does pass the tests, it could be a move that pays off in a big way - even if he does carry a big price tag on both games.
Should I transfer in Roberto Firmino?
- Position: Forward
- Sky cost: 10.4
- FPL cost: 9.1
While Mohamed Salah is the go-to player for Liverpool fantasy football assets, the form of Roberto Firmino means that he could be a wise differential player to bring in for the final week. The Reds host Crystal Palace knowing that victory will see them secure a Champions League spot for next season.
Firmino's selection rate is a small 4.5% of FPL teams and an even lower 1.68% on Sky. He is often overlooked with Salah and Sadio Mane expected to provide the majority of Liverpool goals.
However, Firmino has contributed his fair share in recent weeks and is finishing the season strongly. The striker scored twice against Manchester United and followed that up with a strike against Burnley.
That means that his return over the last five games on Sky has been 32 points while he's hit 29 points over the same period on FPL. Against a Palace side whose only clean sheet in their last eight has come against bottom of the league Sheffield United, Firmino will fancy his chances.
Fantasy Football Fix's statistics also show that over the past five games, only Chris Wood (36), Christian Benteke (32) and Kelechi Iheanacho (32) have gained more points than Firmino, while the Liverpool man has the highest expected assists (xA) figure of any forward with 1.93.
That ultimately placed him second in their Expected Fantasy Premier League points (xFPL) charts to Benteke among forwards.
This isn't to say that it's worth taking out Salah to get him in, but his position as a forward on the FPL game while Salah sits in midfield maximises the potential Liverpool attacking output. The Reds have, of course, scored in 11 of their last 12 games in all competitions.
It's also worth noting that Fantasy Football Fix predicts that Salah's price will rise before the FPL gameweek gets underway so potential budget restrictions may mean Firmino is the better option.
Liverpool know the importance of three points here with victory nailing down a top-four spot and they will have fans in Anfield backing them across the line. His form may have gone under the radar and that makes Firmino a strong differential pick for Gameweek 38.
Should I transfer in Joe Willock?
- Position: Midfielder
- Sky cost: 6.7
- FPL cost: 4.8
If ever an example was needed of a player benefitting from a loan spell, Joe Willock's time at Newcastle has been a huge success. Joining the club on loan from Arsenal in January, the midfielder has scored seven goals in 13 appearances for Steve Bruce's side.
He was building a reputation as a super sub but has been given the start in recent games and that again provided another goal in the win over Sheffield United. With Newcastle travelling to relegated Fulham on Sunday, Willock will be hopeful of another goal.
Delving into Infogol's statistics really highlights just how much of an impact Willock has had since joining Newcastle. The stand out one is that his expected goals figure per 95 minutes is 0.43. The top line is that this is very good as it has the midfielder just outside of the top 20 in the league since the start of February.
It's the same as Raheem Sterling and marginally better than both Jamie Vardy (0.42) and Timo Werner (0.41). It's also a higher average than Southampton striker Danny Ings (0.39) and Manchester United forward Edinson Cavani (0.37).
His form since Gameweek 30 has been exceptional, with Fantasy Football Fix highlighting that he sits seventh for points returned over that period. However, he has played fewer games than those above him and yet no midfielder can better his six goals scored - that is level with Matheus Pereira and Mason Greenwood.
At the time of writing, the same website reports that 37,989 have transferred in Willock so he should be one of the most moved-for players on the FPL game for Gameweek 38 - we await to see how serious a potential injury picked up in the win over Sheffield United is.
With his selection rate at a tiny 0.31% on Sky, and just 2.3% of FPL players owning him, Willock will remain a differential player going into the final day of the season and another goal will provide plenty of points that many others won't have.
Who should I captain in Gameweek 38?
Harry Kane or Salah? Who will finish as the Premier League's top goalscorer this season? Both players are locked on 22 goals with one game remaining and they will both be popular captaincy choices for the final gameweek of the campaign.
Kane's Tottenham face a tricky trip to Leicester while Liverpool host Crystal Palace. Based on form and fixtures, everything points towards captaining Salah if we were to make a choice between the two. Even with a blank/clean sheet return against Burnley, we remain hopeful that he will be back on the scoresheet here.
Of course, there is the element of it potentially being Kane's last game for Spurs and him wanting to go out with a goal but they looked so passive in defeat against Aston Villa. Despite European qualification still being a possibility, they look like a team who just want the season to end.
Liverpool will be more fancied out of the two for a positive result and Salah should be the most captained FPL player for Gameweek 38. If you're in a position at the top of a mini-league and just want to consolidate your position by playing the percentages - go for the Liverpool man.
Fantasy Football Fix says that 97.8% of the top-1000 FPL teams have Salah in so it's fair to assume that he will be captained by a lot of those at the top while Kane's 86.3% makes him a solid vice choice.
Differentials include Aguero if he is to be involved while Willock may reward his owners with a goal to potentially see out his short-term spell with Newcastle.
One team who I am interested in is Leeds. They have secured a top-half finish and face relegated West Brom at home on the final day. Following the announcement of Sam Allardyce's departure on Wednesday, and with their status having been a long time coming, you wonder just how much the Baggies players will want this 90 minutes to go as quickly as possible.
I was fortunate enough to be at Leeds' final game of last season. They had already secured the Championship title and were cruising to a 4-0 victory over Charlton. Even then, Marcelo Bielsa was shouting from the sidelines and demanding more from his players - it doesn't matter if it's the first or the final minute of the season.
Raphinha or Patrick Bamford could be strong differential captaincy options with the attention firmly on the teams battling for European places. Leeds hammered West Brom 5-0 in their meeting at the Hawthorns and will be fancied for more goals on final day.
Fantasy Premier League tips: Gameweek 38 captain picks
Safer options:
- Mohamed Salah, Harry Kane, Patrick Bamford
Alternative options:
- Raphinha, Joe Willock, Sergio Aguero
Sky Fantasy Football tips: Gameweek 38 captain picks
Safer options:
- Mohamed Salah, Harry Kane, Patrick Bamford
Alternative options:
- Raphinha, Joe Willock, Sergio Aguero
Gameweek 38: Our XI and picks
This is our ideal XI for the Gameweek and focuses on Gameweek 38 only. This XI doesn't take into account future fixtures and this is worth remembering when it comes to any potential transfers. Can be seen as a guide for the Free Hit chip on FPL.
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GK: Kiko Casilla (LEE)
Marcelo Bielsa has confirmed that Leeds' second-choice goalkeeper will play against West Brom after keeping a clean sheet against Southampton and his 4.1 price on FPL frees up budget for other big hitters to come in.
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DEF: Trent Alexander-Arnold (LIV)
Another solid performance as Liverpool kept a clean sheet against Burnley and there is potential for another as they welcome Crystal Palace. Set-piece threat and could provide attacking returns too.
DEF: Cesar Azpilicueta (CHE)
He has switched from CB to RWB in recent games which could boost his chances of an attacking return. Chelsea have to win at Aston Villa to guarantee a spot in the Champions League next season.
DEF: Stuart Dallas (LEE)
Leeds go into their game against West Brom on the back of two clean sheets and Dallas' advanced position increases the possibility of a goal or an assist - he has eight goals on his tally this season.
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MID: Joe Willock (NEW)
Seven goals from 13 appearances during his half-season loan spell at the club and his xG/95 figure of 0.43 matches and betters some of the game's most expensive strikers.
MID: Raphinha (LEE)
The last Leeds selection but he had a great game when Leeds went to The Hawthorns and got an assist in the recent win over Burnley. Carries a set-piece threat but can strike from open play too.
MID: Mohamed Salah (LIV)
Battling Harry Kane for the Golden Boot and Liverpool need to beat Palace to secure their place in the top-four. Captain material for Gameweek 38.
MID: Jesse Lingard (WHU)
West Ham need a point against struggling Southampton to secure a place in the top six and Lingard has been fantastic since joining the Hammers. He got an assist in the win over West Brom.
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ATT: Roberto Firmino (LIV)
Three goals across his last three games and will be hoping for another against an average Crystal Palace defence. A real differential option up front but he plays for a good attacking team.
ATT: Sergio Aguero (MCI)
Check the team news on this one of course and replace with Michail Antonio if not available or if budget restrictions dictate but his final home game for Manchester City should see Aguero given plenty of chances to score.
ATT: Harry Kane (TOT)
Could take sole ownership of the Golden Boot with a goal and Tottenham need a positive result for their own European ambitions.
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FPL TEAM COST= 84.0
Fantasy Football Podcast: Final Gameweek tips
Tom Carnduff, Billy Lumsden and Aidan Smith sit down to discuss a huge final day of the Sky Sports Fantasy Football season.
In this episode, the trio discuss everything related to Sunday's fixtures. Is it better to target the games that 'matter' or will points be on offer where positions are already decided?
Is a 'safer' captain choice a wise move or is it worth taking a risk? Suggestions to cover both options are made alongside potential transfers if you have one or two left to make.