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Richard Jolly on Manchester City v Real Madrid and the role of Kevin De Bruyne
Go back a month to Manchester City’s demolition of the 2019 European champions Liverpool and Pep Guardiola described Kevin de Bruyne as the best midfielder in Europe. As they face the 2016, 2017 and 2018 Champions League winners, he has a chance to cement his case.
The last time City met Real Madrid, De Bruyne ended with an assist and a match-winning goal. His February performance in the Bernabeu was the kind that lends itself to suggestions he is one of the continent’s outstanding players. But as Guardiola accepted in 2018, De Bruyne may need to win the Champions League to get the Ballon d’Or.
But his dominant display in the Bernabeu featured two anomalies. The Belgian’s penalty was only his second shot on target in this season’s Champions League and it came in a different role: as a false nine of sorts. Or, to be precise, as one of two. He and Bernardo Silva were the central attackers, flanked by Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus in what was a 4-2-4-0 formation.
It was the sort of gambit that, had City lost, would probably have led to accusations that Guardiola had overcomplicated and overthought things. Victory lent it the feel of a masterstroke. It allowed City to flood the midfield, to thwart attacking full-backs and leave Real’s centre-backs alone with no one to mark. The two Real players with the most touches were the central defenders, Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane, but the City men were on the ball most were the holding midfielders; it was Guardiola’s gameplan working to perfection.
The false nine is a strategy he tends to reserve for the bigger games; rewind to his first autumn in charge, Guardiola famously benched Sergio Aguero at the Nou Camp to use De Bruyne in attack in a 4-0 defeat to Barcelona. Bernardo Silva played as a false nine away at Chelsea in the Premier League and Manchester United in the Carabao Cup this season. Whether or not Aguero is fit again, Friday’s reunion could see the false-nine blueprint brought out of storage. It could entail a central role for Raheem Sterling, who played in lieu of a specialist striker at Stamford Bridge in December 2018 and Sterling at Old Trafford 12 months earlier when, after substitutions, David Silva took over as the false nine; it was another time when Guardiola used Jesus’ pressing game on the flanks.
Starting anywhere would be different for Sterling, whose three City appearances against Real have brought just 59 minutes on the pitch. But he averages a goal every 86 minutes in the Champions League this season. He actually scores at a better rate in continental competition. Over three seasons when he has become a regular scorer, he averages a goal every 128 minutes in Europe and one every 146 in the Premier League. Nor can they be dismissed as group-stage goals: he scored four times in the knockout stages last season.
De Bruyne struck in both legs of the 2016 quarter-final against Paris Saint-Germain but since then his goals have been rarer in Europe: just three in the last four seasons of the Champions League. However, he registered twice as many assists as in the Premier League (four compared to two) last season.
That may be a small sample size in an injury-hit campaign and in his last three full seasons, he has always averaged considerably more attempts per game in the Premier League – 2.4, 2.5 and 2.8 – than the Champions League, with 1.7, 2.1 and 1.4; he is more shot-shy in Europe. In each year, too, he has averaged more crosses in England. In between, though, came his astonishing display in vain in last spring’s 4-3 win over Tottenham, when he recorded a hat-trick of assists, Sterling scored twice and City controversially still went out.
Now they face a side whose specialist subject has been prevailing in Cup football. Real lost only one of their last 13 Champions League knockout ties, the implosion against Ajax last season. They have won their last four away games in knockout stages, with Ajax, Bayern Munich, Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain representing a deluxe quartet of scalps.
They have demonstrated a capacity to peak at the end of seasons in both of Zinedine Zidane’s spells in charge. It has often been more apparent in the Champions League but Real finished La Liga with 31 points out of 33. They took 93 percent of available points after lockdown, compared to just 69 percent before. They conceded only two goals in their first eight games after the restart.
One reason for their improved form was more clinical finishing. Before lockdown, Real scored 49 goals from an xG of 53.48; after, they got 21 goals from an xG of 18.67. Karim Benzema and Ramos both outperformed their expected goals in summer, though the latter is suspended for the City game, having both underperformed relative to chances in the first seven months of the season. Benzema has been reinvented as the top scorer after years as Cristiano Ronaldo’s selfless sidekick but he can still be the supplier. He has the highest xA in the Champions League, of 3.2. If it may be Sterling against Benzema in the battle of the scorers, the clash of the creators could be De Bruyne versus Benzema. Either way, it could be a false nine against Real’s real No. 9.