FA Cup betting preview: Prediction, preview and best bets for fourth round replays, including Liverpool, Newcastle and Derby

Recommended bets

1pt Shrewsbury to beat Liverpool at 10/3

1pt Aaron Pierre to score anytime in Liverpool v Shrewsbury at 19/1

0.5pt Marcus Browne to score anytime for Oxford v Newcastle at 9/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Liverpool v Shrewsbury (Tom Carnduff)

A real test of this Liverpool squad with Jurgen Klopp confirming that their youth side will be involved.

It's created a huge debate surrounding the FA Cup and its value. Liverpool have played 40 games this season, Shrewsbury have played 38, but we all know who should have the squad to cope with the amount of fixtures.

Liverpool have argued constantly about this but Shrewsbury have been busy, have other priorities, but will be playing a first team against the Reds' kids. That makes the 100/30 about a home win very much appealing.

Neil Critchley and his under-23s side have played one senior game this season and got hammered 5-0 by Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup. The Shropshire outfit won't pose the same kind of threat, but they will still fancy their chances - especially when you factor in their efforts in coming from 2-0 down to force a replay against a Liverpool team with senior players involved in their original fourth-round encounter.

To their credit, that young Liverpool side had more possession and more attempts on goal than Villa in the League Cup meeting in December. The problems came when it came to converting the chances though. Men against boys on display, literally.

The Liverpool back line of Ki-Jana Hoever, Sepp van den Berg, Morgan Boyes and Tony Gallacher struggled in that contest and the physicality that comes with this Shrews side should make it another difficult evening.

There's a bit of value in the goalscorer market and the price that immediately jumps off the page is the 19/1 available on Shrewsbury centre-back Aaron Pierre finding the net anytime.

Crosses into the area proved to be a problem for the young Liverpool defence with three of Villa's five coming as a result of balls being hit from out wide towards the centre.

Pierre's aerial presence will be an issue for the hosts to deal with throughout the 90 minutes. He's combined for ten aerial duels won in his previous two games, while there were nine in each of their three games over the Christmas period.

He's also registered at least one shot in eight of his last nine League One games. The 19/1 best price, and the 18/1 available across bookmakers, is far too generous considering the circumstances surrounding this game.

Best bet: Shrewsbury to beat Liverpool at 10/3

Best bet: Aaron Pierre to score anytime at 19/1

Winner to play: Chelsea

Key stats

• Liverpool host Shrewsbury in a match for the first time, with their two previous meetings coming at the Shrews in FA Cup ties - a 4-0 win for the Reds in February 1996 and their 2-2 draw in this season’s fourth round.
• In all competitions, Shrewsbury have won one of their 28 away matches against sides from the top-flight (W1 D3 L24), a 1-0 win at Leicester City in August 2014 in the League Cup.
• Liverpool have won just one of their last five home FA Cup matches against sides from outside the Premier League (W1 D3 L1) – three of those five games have ended 0-0.
• In all competitions, Shrewsbury will be the 99th different English team to play away at Liverpool and first new opponent for the Reds since Havant & Waterlooville in January 2008. Only eight of the previous 98 won their first away game at Liverpool, most recently Wimbledon in March 1987.
• Shrewsbury Town’s Jason Cummings scored with both of his shots on target in their 2-2 draw in the original tie against Liverpool – the Shrews were the first team to come from two goals behind to avoid defeat against the Reds since April 2018 when West Brom did so.

Oxford v Newcastle (George Pitts)

We tipped Marcus Browne to score for Karl Robinson’s side in the original tie at St James’ Park and the Middlesbrough loanee was left rueing a huge opportunity in that goalless draw.

He did all the hard work to beat a defender with his first touch before squandering a great chance to put them in round five.

Browne later told the Oxford Mail: “I’ll probably lie in bed and just visualise being in that moment again and think ‘what if I did this or that’.

“But you have a split-second to decide and when you’re getting pressurised at the same time it does make it an awful lot more difficult.

“I did well to get it towards the goal but it just wouldn’t get down for me.”

It came soon after arriving from Boro for the rest of the season. He scored on his debut against Rotherham last month and impressed after that before a brilliant brace in the weekend win over Blackpool.

It gives Browne and Oxford renewed confidence going into the home tie and they can at least get on the score sheet against a Newcastle side that struggles on the road – even drawing 1-1 at Rochdale in the previous round.

Browne’s double against the Tangerines came after Karl Robinson moved him into a more central striker’s role, with his manager later hailing a ‘sensational’ display, and he is likely to feature there again.

Considering his likeliness to start up front, and his three shots-per-game average since joining Oxford, the 9/2 anytime price on Browne is well worth considering – and the 11/1 for him to score first equally as tempting.

Best bet: Marcus Browne to score anytime at 9/2

Winner to play: West Brom

Key stats

• Oxford have won their last three home matches against Newcastle in all competitions, most recently a 3-0 win in the FA Cup fourth round in January 2017.
• Newcastle are looking for their first away win against Oxford since December 1987, when they won 3-1 in a top-flight match with goals from Mirandinha, Michael O’Neill and Neil McDonald.
• Oxford won their most recent home FA Cup match against Premier League opponents, winning 3-2 against Swansea City in January 2016.
• Newcastle United have won just one of their last 17 away FA Cup games (W1 D6 L10), winning 4-2 in a third round replay against Blackburn last season.
• Newcastle have won their last four FA Cup replays, scoring 14 goals across those four victories.

Odds correct as of 1300 GMT on 03/02/20

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