Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.75pts e.w. Manchester City to win the FA Cup at 5/1 (Betfred 1/2 1,2)
1.25pts e.w. Chelsea to win the FA Cup at 7/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
1pt e.w. Newcastle to win the FA Cup at 12/1 (General 1/2 1,2)
The FA Cup is such a brilliant competition and despite the best efforts of the powers that be to destroy it for the benefit of the few, there is still an excitement which comes with seeing your team progressing through the rounds.
The Magic of the Cup™️ is still well and truly alive yet the reality is that the winner is often a member of the established 'big six'.
Leicester in 2021 were the exception to the rule but then they had been battling around the European places for a while following their unexpected Premier League triumph in 2016.
Around the Foxes, winners across the last 11 years have been both Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool.
FA Cup 24/25 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 10/3
- Liverpool - 5/1
- Arsenal, Chelsea - 7/1
- Tottenham - 8/1
- Manchester United, Newcastle - 12/1
- Aston Villa - 16/1
So picking a winner usually means focusing on those towards the top of the football pyramid.
Sure, you get a few from elsewhere which push them all the way but the trophy often finds its way into the already packed trophy cabinets of the 'bigger' names in the game.
It's also impossible to work out the route a team will go on in this competition too.
One club may appear decent value but then there's not a great deal you can do if they're drawn away at a Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City in the fourth round. That's just something we have to accept.
Three picks are made this season, trying to follow the 'formula' laid out above.
Added importance for City
You can't really use the word 'disaster' to describe a season of a team sat 6th in the Premier League table and also have Champions League involvement.
But by their usual standards, MANCHESTER CITY's season has been a disaster.
Pep Guardiola's once formidable outfit are no longer striking fear into their opponents but they do at least go into the third round weekend on the back of consecutive victories.
They already trail Liverpool by 12 points in the English's top-flight and if the Reds win their game in-hand that becomes 15.
As far as another title charge goes, it's over for City.
So the FA CUP provides them with an opportunity for the silverware they are so used to WINNING, with prices of 5/1 particularly appealing for once.
They are seven times winners of this tournament with two of those coming under Guardiola's guidance. They were also runners-up last season.
City perhaps don't boast the squad depth of others - a somewhat bizarre statement given their financial backing - but it's certainly a squad significantly better than their rivals.
And it's the added importance following their so far unsuccessful league campaign. There is a real possibility this is the only trophy they come close to this season.
For a club so used to recent success, it would be notable if they conclude the campaign empty-handed. This competition gives them a chance to avoid that.
Salford at home awaits in the third round but they won't fear too many opponents in the rounds which follow.
Chelsea's route to success
On that subject of squad depth mentioned above, nobody can boast it more than CHELSEA who have a range of talent in every position to choose from.
So much so that they don't even feature their 'best' players in the Europa Conference League. Unsurprisingly, they topped that table after the group stage.
I'm going to agree with Joe Townsend in our team's best bets for 2025 and say that the Blues are a good bet to WIN THE FA CUP at prices of 7/1.
Chelsea host League Two strugglers Morecambe in the third round which is more of a case of 'how many will they win by?' rather than 'will they win?' and they know one of Arsenal or Manchester United will depart at this stage.
They could make multiple changes in every round and still be in a strong position to progress. It's a squad which has been built with the aim of being able to compete on multiple fronts.
They may have hit a wobble recently but the quality is clear. They will have also been disappointed to depart the Carabao Cup as early as they did - a fourth round defeat to Newcastle.
We see two all-Premier League ties elsewhere in the third round and others play strong Championship outfits. While Chelsea should dispatch of Morecambe with ease, others in the top-flight may drop out.
The weaker the opposition pool the better anyway, but particularly with a Chelsea side who have players keen to impress for Premier League involvement.
This season presents a good opportunity to end the eight-year wait for this trophy.
Finally the Toon's time?
NEWCASTLE are in the battle for the top-four once again but that shouldn't stop them competing in the cup.
Sure, they will view that return to the Champions League as a priority yet they are also now at a point where they'll understand the importance of silverware - both to their own project and the club's supporters.
When they finished fourth in 2022/23, they would also make the final of the Carabao Cup where they were beaten by Manchester United.
Involvement in the battle at the top-end of the table doesn't mean Newcastle stop going strong elsewhere - the involvement in the Carabao Cup semi-final highlights this.
Therefore, the 12/1 on them WINNING THE FA CUP is another bet to consider.
Bromley are outperforming expectations in Sky Bet League Two but it's still much weaker third round opposition and, as outlined above, others in the Premier League could drop out at this early stage.
Eddie Howe has got his side playing again and they are currently enjoying a run of five wins in a row in the league. We, obviously, await to see what happens against Arsenal in the first leg of that semi-final.
In terms of 'the rest' in the market, Villa face West Ham, Manchester United face Arsenal and while Tottenham travel to Tamworth, not too many will be backing them for success given the way things are currently going under Ange Postecoglou.
You have to go back to 1955 for the last time Newcastle lifted a major domestic trophy. How close they've come in the other competition in recent years shows how important they feel it is to end the wait.
Odds correct at 0915 GMT (07/01/25)
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