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FA Cup tips: Outright best bets and preview for 2023/24 season
Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts e.w. Chelsea to win the FA Cup at 11/1 (William Hill 1,2 1/2)
1pt e.w. Nottingham Forest to win the FA Cup at 66/1 (General 1,2 1/2)
I can never quite work out how I feel about outright previews on cup competitions.
On the one hand, you can get some big prices on teams for success, opening up the each-way value if they reach the final. On the other, the entire thing is dictated by a completely random draw.
I backed Manchester United at 16/1 for Carabao Cup glory last season, and their run highlighted why that price turned out to be great value in the end. The draw was fortunate with this selection.
Erik ten Hag's side faced Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Charlton (H), Nottingham Forest (semis) and Newcastle (final) en route to lifting the trophy - a meeting with Arsenal, City or Liverpool could have made it a completely different story.
Whenever we're taking a team to win the whole thing at this stage of the competition, we need to be realistic in hoping for a kind enough draw to get through the various rounds. Home ties against lower opposition the ideal scenario.
I'm going to approach this preview in the usual manner for cup competitions - take one of the favourites and an outsider who can go far. Both have to have some juice for the each-way prices though in case they fall short.
Chelsea up for the Cup?
Arsenal's clash with Liverpool in the third round means we're definitely losing one of the big hitters at the first hurdle. It's enough to keep me away from both.
Instead, with Manchester City staggeringly clear in the market - as short as 5/2 as a general price - there's one team that stands out as having the potential to go all the way.
CHELSEA's season has been one of disappointment, again, but the cup competitions could provide a source of joy at Stamford Bridge.
Mauricio Pochettino's team are in the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup currently, with a two-legged affair against Middlesbrough giving them a great opportunity to reach Wembley.
They've remarkably had an all-home run in that competition so far, but have dispatched Brighton and Newcastle on their way to the final four. Improvement in the league is their priority yet the cups have given them a chance for success.
Their boss took Tottenham to the semi-finals of the FA Cup despite their issues with winning silverware. He won the cup in France with PSG (not difficult, I know) - the desire for success coupled with a head coach who has done well enough in knockout football is a nice mix.
The third round puts them up against an unimpressive Preston side at home. A good draw and one they should be winning comfortably.
You're getting similar prices on Arsenal and Liverpool, and as already mentioned, one of those will definitely be out on the first weekend. Newcastle's injury woes also makes them an unappealing option around the same marker.
This Chelsea side is better than the Premier League table shows and the return of Christopher Nkunku will be massive for them in terms of converting the chances they create.
Expect better from them in the second part of the campaign. That can lead to glory here.
Forest fancied for a surprise
I was unsure on this considering the talk of a points deduction in recent days.
That, of course, relates to the Premier League, but it can adjust how a club views the FA Cup if they are in a battle for survival.
I'm happy enough ignoring that noise though and taking NOTTINGHAM FOREST as a 66/1 outsider with a few bookmakers.
The short-term impact of Nuno Espirito Santo has been huge, beating Newcastle away before home success over Manchester United.
They could have also gained something in the loss against Bournemouth - although he'd only been there a few days at kick-off of that one.
The early stages of the FA Cup may be viewed as crucial for Nuno to keep the momentum going. Those two wins have proven to be vital in pushing them away from the relegation zone.
As it stands, Forest shouldn't really be worrying about the drop under current management. The three promoted teams have been poor and they should be in a far better position following the switch in the dugout - they've demonstrated this in recent weeks.
A repeat of last season's third round awaits in terms of the opponent, although this time Forest are the home side. Blackpool may have won convincingly 12 months ago, but we're backing the expected outcome now.
Scant value elsewhere
Brentford are 40/1 despite being in torrid form and one point closer to the drop zone than Forest. Everton and Palace can be backed at shorter prices and they play each other.
Aston Villa, Brighton and West Ham also have European involvement to contend with - Fulham have been inconsistent. In terms of prices, Forest actually jump out as the most appealing of 'the rest', considering the recent change.
Nuno reached the semi-finals of this competition with Wolves in 2019 - beaten by Watford in extra-time at Wembley - but he has the potential to go one further with this Forest side if the draw is kind enough.
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (03/01/24)
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