Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.5pts Crystal Palace to win the FA Cup at 11/1 (Unibet 1/3 1,2)
1pt Will Hughes to be carded in 90 minutes at 7/2 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 11/1
- Will Hughes to be carded
- Crystal Palace to qualify
- Alex Iwobi 1+ shot on target
All in 90 minutes
Both Fulham and Crystal Palace will feel they have a good chance of winning the FA Cup. Not only are Manchester City the only member of the big six still in the competition, but Pep Guardiola's side are very beatable this season.
It looks wide open, and with Newcastle beating Arsenal and Liverpool en route to Carabao Cup success, the last eight of the Premier League will be full of belief and hope that this could be their year.
Fulham sit eighth in the Premier League and my good mate Jimmy the Punt has tipped Marco Silva's side for a top four finish this season, while Crystal Palace are one of the form teams in the division, sitting 12th though only Liverpool have collected more points over the last 10 games.
Two good teams going at it for a spot in the FA Cup semi final at Wembley, we should witness a good game on Saturday lunch time.
What are the best bets?
I think CRYSTAL PALACE are solid value to qualify here at 6/5, but I'll instead take a small punt on them WINNING THE FA CUP at 11/1.
It may seem odd to get involved in the outright at this late stage, but the price looks massive given the Eagles are only three games from victory.
Aside from Pep Guardiola, who's side face a very tough quarter final at Bournemouth, and Unai Emery, who's Villa side must continue to juggle league and Champions League duties alongside their FA Cup run, Oliver Glasner is the manager with the most cup pedigree of the remaining eight.
He led Frankfurt to Europa League glory in 21/22 before making it to the DFB Pokal final a year later, and the way he has his Palace playing right now should instill fear in every opponent they come up against.
Not only have the Eagles collected 31 points from their last 16 league games, the fourth most in the league, but Glasner's men have collected the third most expected points per game in that time, while putting up the second best underlying process of all top flight sides (+0.80 xGD pg).
They have been the third best defensive team (1.06 xGA per game) and the fourth best attacking team (1.86 xGF per game), all to the backdrop of a schedule that has seen them play eight of the top 10 and only four games against the poor bottom three.
Finally, should they get past Fulham, they will fear no one in the semis or final, with their record against the Premier League sides they could face in the last four or showpiece reading W3 D3 L1. Of the other five potential opponents, only Nottingham Forest, way back in October when Palace were dealing with huge injury issues, have beaten Palace this season.
They are the form team, have a proven manager in cup competitions, a clean bill of health and a favourable record against possible opponents. What's not to like?
In terms of this game, the Eagles recently went to Craven Cottage and cruised to a 2-0 win, limiting Fulham to just 0.20 xG on that occasion, and while the Cottagers have shown they are capable of competing with anyone in any given game, they lack the consistency shown by Palace.
For those not interested in a longer shot bet, I'll return to an old favourite of mine for this clash and back WILL HUGHES TO BE CARDED at 7/2.
The English midfielder is currently in the middle of a league suspension thanks to collecting 10 cards this season, but is all good to play in the FA Cup.
Overall, in 25 games against Premier League opponents this season he has been booked 11 times at an average of 0.55 cards per 90.
He's a fouling machine, leading the top flight with 2.83 per 90, and with Darren England in charge, he could have his name taken again.
The man in the middle, England, has averaged 4.2 cards per game this season but last time out flashed eight yellows and a red, and could be in a simila sort of mood given the high stakes in South London.
Hughes was booked on his last outing at Craven Cottage only a few weeks ago when his side were 2-0 up, and I could see a similar scenario here, with Palace leading and Hughes pulling out all the stops to keep his side ahead.
Team news
Sasa Lukic will be back from suspension for Fulham and he could come in for Emile Smith Rowe, with Andreas Pereira slotting into the number 10 position.
Adama Traore and Alex Iwobi should start out wide, with Rodrigo Muniz set to be given the nod over Raul Jimenez. Defensively Fulham should be unchanged.
The Cottagers' only absentees remain Kenny Tete, Harry Wilson and Reiss Nelson.
Crystal Palace should be able to call upon the services of top scorer Jean-Philippe Mateta for this semi final, with the Frenchman returning following his nasty head in jury in the last round of the FA Cup.
That will mean Eddie Nketiah makes way and the only other decisions Glasner has to make are in goal and midfield.
His cup goalkeeper, Matt Turner, is vying to start, but given the magnitude of the game, Glasner could opt to stick with his number one Dean Henderson, while the Austrian supremo will have to choose between Will Hughes and Adam Wharton to partner Jefferson Lerma.
Predicted line-ups
Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson; Berge, Lukic; Traore, Pereira, Iwobi; Muniz
Crystal Palace: Henderson; Richards, Guehi, Lacroix; Munoz, Hughes, Lerma, Mitchell; Eze, Sarr; Mateta
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (27/3/25)
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