Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded at 3/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Carlos Baleba to be carded at 10/3 (Unibet)
0.5pts Gibbs-White and Baleba to be carded at 14/1 (Unibet)
All in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded
- Carlos Baleba to be carded
- Ola Aina 3+ tackles
All in 90 minutes
What an opportunity for Brighton or Nottingham Forest to make it to an FA Cup semi-final.
In years gone by both would have likely faced one of the 'big six' at this stage of the competition and duly exited, but this season has been a bit different.
The established sides have faltered massively, and it's coincided with a closing of the gap from the middle of the Premier League, meaning not only could we end the season with two unfamiliar names on domestic trophies, but we could have some non-big-six-sides in Europe's top competitions.
Both of these sides are in good form, though the recent head-to-head, which saw Forest maul Brighton 7-0 at the City Ground, has me scratching my head as to why the visitors are such a big price to advance.
What are the best bets?
It's 21/10 best price for the visitors to make the semis and I wouldn't put anyone off that. The only reason it doesn't feature in my staking plan is that Chris Wood is a major doubt for this clash, and that is enough to have me swerving.
Instead, cards are likely on the agenda, and I'll be returning to a theory that has paid dividends this season - backing Forest's opposing holding midfielder to be booked.
That means I have to back CARLOS BALEBA TO BE CARDED at 10/3. The 3/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power is fine too.
He has been booked in seven of 24 starts against Premier League opponents this season, including this exact fixture in the Premier League. You may wonder why that last bit of information is important, well, it's the Morgan Gibbs-White factor.
Forest's number 10 has contributed to seeing 18 of his opposite number (defensive midfielders) being carded this season in just 24 starts against top flight teams. Baleba was one of those in the meeting at the Amex, and Jack Hinshelwood was another when he started in defensive midfield as the teams met at the City Ground. He's 5/1 to be carded but his record is nowhere near as enticing as Baleba's who should be tasked with clamping down on Gibbs-White.
Referee Peter Bankes is averaging 4.4 cards per game this season, a healthy number, and the all-Premier League clashes in the last round of this competition saw 4.75 cards per game as everyone remaining in the competition saw it as a legitimate chance to win silverware, so more of the same can be expected here.
That means I have to back GIBBS-WHITE TO BE CARDED too, as he gives as good as he gets.
Like Baleba, he's been carded in seven of 24 starts against Premier League opposition, boasting a cards per 90 of 0.31, and interestingly, he was sent off in this fixture earlier in the season and sparked scenes commentators like to call 'unsavoury'.
That's a load of rubbish as we all love seeing a fracas and pushing and shoving, and on that day it resulted in both Fabian Hurzeler and Nuno Espirito Santo being sent off too.
There could still be some needle between these two clubs, maybe even more so after Forest embarrassed the Seagulls 7-0 at the City Ground, and that could lead to Gibbs-White playing the pantomime villain and getting his name taken.
I also have to back the double, with BOTH BALEBA AND GIBBS-WHITE TO BE CARDED landing in the first meeting between these sides this season.
In terms of Gibbs-White and his opposing defensive midfielder, the card double has won five times in 24 starts this season (vs Wolves, Brighton, Ipswich and Manchester City twice), so the 14/1 available with Unibet looks large. It's 12.5/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power, and 12/1 with bet365 and I'd take both.
Team news
Tariq Lamptey is out for Brighton due to injury, and joins Igor Julio, Jason Steele, James Milner and Ferdi Kadioglu in being unavailable.
Manager Fabian Hurzeler hopes to have captain Lewis Dunk back fit for this one, as well as Matt O'Riley, Solly March and Joel Veltman, with the latter expected to start right back in Lamptey's absence.
Forest could be without top scorer Chris Wood after he was subbed off with an injury on international duty, and boss Nuno Espirito Santo hasn't been optimistic this week about his striker's chance of being available.
If that's the case Taiwo Awoniyi could be called upon to lead the line.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton: Verbruggen; Veltman, Dunk, Van Hecke, Estupinan; Baleba, Hinshelwood; Minteh, Pedro, Mitoma; Welbeck
Nottingham Forest: Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Anderson, Dominguez; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Awoniyi
Odds correct at 1015 GMT (28/3/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
