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FA Cup third round upset tips: The best bets for outsiders backed for success
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Peterborough to beat Leeds at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Already advised:
1pt Rotherham/Draw double chance vs Fulham at 4/1 (General)
1pt Cambridge to beat Blackburn at 15/2 (General)
1pt Stoke to beat Brighton at 11/2 (Coral)
1pt Walsall/Draw double chance vs Southampton at 11/4 (General)
You'll have heard the dulcet tones of Andy Williams with It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year at some point over the past couple of weeks.
Some may associate that song with Christmas; I'd have it for the FA Cup third round.
It's the best weekend on the footballing calendar. The true mix of top-level sides having to travel to the lower league underdogs.
Your out-of-form Premier League sides facing the full of confidence League Two-ers; the complacent mid-tablers caught out by the third-tier set-piece kings. It's all there.
And as has been the case of recent years, this column returns with the aim of finding the sides who look a little overpriced to secure victory.
As ever, I'll add in my usual disclaimer here that there is the potential for some of these selections to go very wrong. After all, we are backing for upsets to happen.
But the value is there to be had if we look in the right places. Contrasting form, plenty of rotation and managerial experience are just some of the reasons we can focus on when finding outsiders.
Honourable mentions go to Wimbledon hosting Ipswich with 5/1 available on them for success, although I'm not too keen on getting involved with the Dons this month as top scorer Ali Al-Hamadi is away with Iraq at the Asia Cup, while fellow forward Omar Bugiel is with Lebanon.
Gillingham (13/2) v Sheffield United were another on the longlist that didn't make the staking plan - there's value elsewhere that provides more appeal...
Peterborough vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/7
Leeds are aiming for an immediate return to the Premier League; Peterborough have the Sky Bet Championship in their sights.
Questions remain on Daniel Farke's ability to adapt to opponents. Sides set up to sit deep and frustrate have largely been successful this season - particularly when Leeds are the away side.
I don't think PETERBOROUGH will do that, but their attack has the potential to lead them to VICTORY against a changed opposition.
Darren Ferguson's side have scored the most goals (50) in League One this season, while the underlying numbers also make them a league leader in terms of the quality of chances they are creating.
Without Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk - the latter will definitely not be involved here - Leeds' defence looks vulnerable. Add in different full-backs and the whole back line will be troubled on the road.
Leeds' own attack is remarkably strong and they have all the potential to score a few if the usual suspects feature, but it's at the other end of the pitch where this game can be lost.
Taking the overs wouldn't be the worst idea in this, but at a best price of 19/4, I'll back the Posh.
Blackburn vs Cambridge
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
Lower mid-table Championship side against League One opposition seeing slight upturn following a managerial change. Perfect FA Cup material? I hope so.
CAMBRIDGE travel to Blackburn for a Saturday kick-off and provide some appeal at big prices TO WIN.
Blackburn were battling for the play-offs last season but find themselves stuck in 17th this time around. Despite that, they are somehow still closer to the top six than they are to the drop zone.
The home record has them 19th, with seven defeats coming from their 13 matches. They've also lost six of their last eight at all venues in the league - their form is really poor.
Defensively they are terrible too, conceding 48 goals across their 26 outings so far. At home, it's 23 against in 13 contests - the second-worst record in the division.
There is also some concern about their ability to play against the more direct teams. Huddersfield, Preston and Sheffield Wednesday have all beaten Rovers in the past couple of months while Rotherham did get that draw on New Year's Day.
Cambridge may have lost their last two but home wins against Exeter and Blackpool, combined with an away draw at Charlton, has kicked them away from the relegation places slightly.
They'll want to return to winning ways and will fancy their chances of striking against this bad Rovers back line.
Southampton vs Walsall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 19/4 | Away 17/2
Southampton are on a remarkable unbeaten run that has thrown them well into contention for automatic promotion back to the Premier League.
It now stands at 18 matches, although an FA Cup tie at this stage leaves boss Russell Martin with a dilemma.
Do you go strong with the aim of keeping that run going? Or do you assess the situation and understand how promotion is far more important than any mini-run in this competition?
I'm hoping it's the latter, with WALSALL/DRAW on the DOUBLE CHANCE an interesting pick.
Walsall's upturn in form has been unexpected, in all honesty. They looked poor in their second round clash at Alfreton, but since then it's six wins from seven, including the replay of that one in 90 minutes.
The first time we have scored 6️⃣ in a league game since 2️⃣0️⃣1️⃣1️⃣
— Walsall FC Official (@WFCOfficial) January 1, 2024
The first time we have scored 6️⃣ in a away league game since 1️⃣9️⃣4️⃣8️⃣
Happy New Year Saddlers 🥳 pic.twitter.com/jPaYxHjrYn
That run has included wins over Crewe, Notts County and Wrexham, too - three sides who currently sit in the top six in the Sky Bet League Two table.
They also go into this game on the back of a 6-1 thrashing of Grimsby away from home. We have to give credit to boss Mat Sadler for the turnaround over the past month or so.
Walsall are a big price as you'd expect, but we'll back them to capitalise with their current momentum.
Stoke vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 19/4 | Draw 7/2 | Away 1/2
Finally! A home side!
This is a pick I wouldn't have been interested in a few weeks ago, but Stoke's appointment of Steven Schumacher has delivered an unbeaten run across his four games at the helm.
The most recent one of those was a home draw against Ipswich, making it two draws but perhaps crucially two clean sheets in both home games under his guidance.
You can get 11/2 on a STOKE WIN, which looks interesting enough when we factor in availability issues for the Seagulls.
Roberto De Zerbi likes to change his side anyway, but he's been forced into making more than he would perhaps have done during the half-season so far due to that long list of those injured.
They've also had to balance the Europa League with maintaining their Premier League form. The fact that they are through to the round of 16 in the former and sit seventh in the latter gives hope to the FA Cup being put on the back burner.
Brighton are currently dealing with around ten first team injuries - here's hoping Stoke can capitalise on the forced rotation.
Fulham vs Rotherham
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Friday
- Home 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Away 14/1
A non-televised game on Friday to kick us off. An excuse here to rant about Thursday's TV selection by the way. I'm not saying it should have been this game, of course, but Palace vs Everton? In the FA Cup? Grow up, ITV.
Fulham sit 13th in the Premier League table, Rotherham are bottom of the Sky Bet Championship. So, naturally, we're backing the AWAY SIDE to earn at least a replay.
'Are you okay?', I hear you ask. 'What is wrong with you?', from others. 'No' and 'a lot' are your answers, but the Millers' appointment of Leam Richardson as their manager has delivered a slight upturn in form.
They're unbeaten in their last three games - beating Middlesbrough, drawing with Sunderland and getting a point at Blackburn last time out. A good run considering the opposition.
Rotherham had a good first half against Blackburn despite falling behind and deserved their equaliser after a period of pressure in the second. They were also good value for their lead vs Sunderland.
I'm hoping for the potential of some Fulham changes as has been the case in recent years. The visitors should view this as a 'nothing to lose opportunity to keep the momentum going'.
Odds correct at 1650 GMT (03/01/24)
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