Football betting tips: FA Cup third round
Saturday
1pt QPR to beat Leicester (14:00) at 9/2 (General)
1pt Stoke to beat Sunderland (15:00) at 9/2 (General)
1pt Reading to beat Burnley (15:00) at 11/2 (General)
1pt Leyton Orient to beat Derby (18:00) at 11/5 (General)
Sunday
1pt Bristol Rovers to beat Ipswich (15:00) at 12/1 (General)
I've said many times how much I love the FA Cup and particularly the third round stage of the competition.
Shocks will happen but it seems like a tricky fixture list to navigate in terms of predicting them this time around. A number of the underdogs have been drawn away when home advantage is often significant.
What is a 'shock' anyway? It's probably worth clarifying for this piece before we get into the picks.
In the traditional sense, it's a team beating another team from a higher league. For this piece, I'll be driven by the prices and siding with those who are viewed as the outsiders in their match-ups.
So that could mean teams from the same league feature or even those who are higher in the pyramid. If the prices say they're the outsiders then they are eligible for involvement.
This is probably also a good time to mention, as I always do in these pieces, that we are ultimately taking the outsiders to win. We're buying into a number of factors such as a recent form and team selection which may not go the way we expected when the line-ups are announced.
We're hoping for a winner or two but then one may get hammered. That's the nature of it when taking such big prices in one-off matches. The 12/1 pick may well end up being beaten 5-1.
But we can be confident that upsets will happen, they always do, and here's some of the games where I think they may take place.
Leicester vs QPR
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Away 17/4
A nice, traditional 2pm Saturday kick-off here as Premier League strugglers Leicester welcome Sky Bet Championship outfit QPR.
It looked as if the Rs' upturn under Martí Cifuentes last season wouldn't last into the new campaign but they have turned things around recently with just one defeat from their last 11 league outings.
Confidence will be high then and the 9/2 price on a QPR WIN is certainly interesting.
This is a contest where the pressure is all on Leicester. Ruud van Nistelrooy's side sit 19th in the Premier League table and have lost each of their last five games.
You could say that this game may present an opportunity to return to winning ways but they are in the midst of a relegation battle and the FA Cup is going to provide extra games that they won't really want at this point.
Of course, they're not going out to lose, but expected rotation coupled with them knowing where the priorities lie may give QPR a way through.
I'll side with the form team in this contest.
Sunderland vs Stoke
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 29/10 | Away 9/2
I refer you back to the intro section of this article where we try and define what a 'shock' may be.
Both of these sides play in the Championship and Sunderland are having a significantly better season than Stoke but there a couple of factors that could prove the odds wrong in play here.
The first of which being the Black Cats' involvement in the promotion race and whether or not they'll fancy a cup run alongside that given the riches that come with a Premier League place.
The other is Mark Robins' appointment as the Potters' new manager and that's why the 9/2 on a STOKE WIN is worth backing.
In Regis Le Bris' two seasons in charge of Lorient, they never progressed beyond the round of 16 in the Coupe de France - that is only the second round stage for Ligue 1 sides.
And he faces a manager in Robins who has a great recent track record in the FA Cup. He guided Coventry to within a penalty shootout of a spot in the final last season.
There's also the fact that he's only recently taken the job and will want to use this game to further implement his ideas and style. They have a good reason to go as strong as possible - particularly after being held to a 0-0 draw at home to Plymouth last time out.
Reading vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 1/2
Ah, a home team to get involved with. That's nice.
League One outfit Reading welcome Championship promotion hopefuls Burnley and the Royals have kept up their solid home form despite Ruben Selles' departure for Hull.
They've won nine of their 11 home league games so far, and while Burnley have been flying in the second tier, particularly in defence, they hold hopes of progression.
It's why the 11/2 on a READING WIN is interesting here.
The Clarets are likely to make changes as they did in their Carabao Cup defeat to Wolves earlier in the season and that always makes you vulnerable on the road in this competition.
Parker's also not placed a great deal of priority on the domestic cups when guiding sides to promotion from the Championship.
Both his Bournemouth and Fulham sides were eliminated in the fourth round. The Cherries beat Yeovil in round three before losing at home to Boreham Wood a month later.
They have been excellent in the league but changes to their starting XI could cause issues against a strong side from the division below. The prices make it an appealing bet.
Leyton Orient vs Derby
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/10
A shorter price on an outsider here but one worth getting involved with given their form.
Odds of 11/5 are available on LEYTON ORIENT TO WIN and that appears good value based on recent showings.
Orient are flying in League One. Richie Wellens' side are unbeaten in their last ten across all competitions with eight of those ending in victory in 90 minutes.
They've lost just one of their last ten in front of their own supporters. It's a run that has pushed them to within three points of the play-off positions.
And in Derby, they face a team who are struggling to secure results on the road.
The only away win of the entire campaign came at Coventry at the beginning of November with each of their last three ending in defeat.
In terms of the Championship, nine of their 14 away contests have been losses - conceding twice as many (24) as they've scored (12).
The priority for the Rams will be staying in the division and that could well mean a third round exit against a side who are flying currently.
Ipswich vs Bristol Rovers
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 1/5 | Draw 21/4 | Away 11/1
The side sat 20th in the Sky Bet League One table travelling away to a team in the Premier League? Yep, that's get included here.
Bristol Rovers travel to Ipswich in a game that can be viewed as a complete free hit for them. There is very little pressure on them to get a positive result.
But the appointment of former Brighton player Iñigo Calderón may give them a chance to progress. He secured victory over Cambridge in his third game at the helm.
It's his first senior managerial role but they've shown potential in attack even if there has been some defensive vulnerability. They scored twice while creating chances worth 2.41 expected goals (xG) in the recent defeat to a flying Leyton Orient side.
A few bookmakers go 12/1 on a BRISTOL ROVERS WIN and that's worth backing at the price.
Ipswich were the victim of a major upset last year when they were beaten by Maidstone and this season has already delivered a defeat on penalties to AFC Wimbledon in the second round of the Carabao Cup.
Rovers will need to show some defensive solidity to get through this but there will be opportunities to counter the spaces left behind when Ipswich go forward - they may be able to exploit this.
It's a big ask at the odds but it's one to get involved with.
Odds correct at 1425 GMT (07/01/25)
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