Liam Kelly picks out six stats to include in a BuildABet for the FA Cup semi-final between Brighton v Manchester United, recommending an 11/2 fourfold.
- Brighton to win
- Solly March 2+ total shots
- Antony 1+ tackles
- 30+ booking points
Brighton to win
Manchester United's humiliating defeat in the Europa League on Thursday highlighted the fragility of this squad when certain playersare missing.
A patchwork United defence can be taken advantage of by a Brighton team that have been one best in the Premier League for some time. It's not in doubt as to which side is better at the moment.
Solly March 2+ total shots
Roberto De Zerbi's style of play has clearly been beneficial to Brighton's wide players, with Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March shining during the Italian's tenure.
March's threat as a goalscorer is significant now, scoring seven goals from 40 shots in 15 league games since the World Cup. He can get two shots away in this match-up.
Antony 1+ tackles
Antony was perhaps the only Manchester United player to emerge from the Sevilla game with credit, but the right winger might have his hands full from a defensive perspective on Sunday.
Pervis Estupiñán and Kaoru Mitoma love to bomb forward, so Antony can be expected to log at least one tackle. He's attempted 33 in just 17 Premier League games this season.
30+ booking points
The likely open nature of this game could lead to cards, too. Both sides are fairly aggressive when it comes to winning the ball back and space can equal cynical fouls.
A total of 30+ booking points looks a low target considering the importance of this semi-final to both Brighton and Manchester United.
Over 2.5 Goals
Three or more goals is also a solid possibility. Brighton are excellent at create chances, averaging 2.52 expected goals for (xGF) per game across their last 10 Premier League games.
Manchester United's defence may well be shorthanded but they do have a lot of quality in attack. Marcus Rashford might even play a part, a massive boost for Erik ten Hag's side.
26+ match total shots
There should be plenty of space to operate for both these teams on the Wembley pitch, which can lead to plenty of attempts at goal.
A total of 26 or more shots is well within reach in a match where both teams like to get forward. Brighton have averaged 17.3 shots per game in the Premier League this season, with United not far behind in the same metric, averaging 16.9 attempts per game.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (21/04/23)
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