Ben Coley believes the best way to bet on the FA Cup final is to keep things simple and side with the favourites.
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Chelsea v Arsenal (1730 BST, BBC One, BT Sport 2)
While the supposed demise of the FA Cup is probably exaggerated, and one of the big sides tends to take it seriously enough to win, Saturday's final is the first since 2012 to feature two of the Premier League's elite.
Whether that adds to the spectacle will depend on your own point of view, but Arsenal fans know better than most that having a strong favourite doesn't guarantee a one-sided final, even if they did thrash Aston Villa a year after they'd come from behind to beat Hull 3-2.
When it comes to punting, however, there can be no doubt that more options are revealed by a game which should in theory be fairly close to call.
Yes, Chelsea are the best team in England, and Arsenal have fallen some way behind, but the Gunners have signed off in flying form and have won this competition twice in three years.
That they're 2/1 to lift the trophy would therefore come as a surprise, were it not the consequence of the key information at hand: Arsenal will be without at least two, probably three of their centre-backs, including the only one who can be termed world-class.
This is a serious problem and it becomes hard to see how Arsenal will cope with a confident, fluid Chelsea side, one which has no obvious weaknesses. The Blues come into this in equally strong form and their own seven-match winning run has seen them score 24 goals. This isn't a side to take on without a drilled defence.
What's more, the Gunners are no longer capable of dominating games in the way they once did, a way which might once have kept the pressure off a makeshift back-line. Chelsea will have plenty of opportunities to get at the likes of Per Mertesacker, who has featured for little more than half an hour in the last year, and are not likely to pass them up.
Antonio Conte's side will of course have to deal with Alexis Sanchez, expected to feature despite being withdrawn with a hamstring complaint in Arsenal's 3-1 victory over Everton on Sunday, but this will be his 51st start for Arsenal this season and there's certainly a question mark as to how effective he can be as we approach June.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain's participation is far less certain and while Aaron Ramsey looks close to his best again, Arsenal will go into this game far too dependent on him, Sanchez and Mesut Ozil, from whom they need the type of performance only players of his calibre can produce, but one which has been lacking far too often in the big games.
The ongoing mystery surrounding Arsene Wenger's future is a further concern for a side who are under pressure to deliver some form of consolation at the end of a disastrous campaign, which ended in their first failure to secure Champions League qualification under the Frenchman.
That Manchester United won the Europa League in midweek might act as some kind of inspiration but that's stretching things somewhat and the reality is it will take Arsenal's performance of the season - better than their 3-0 victory over Chelsea at the Emirates - to lift this trophy.
And while they're at least in form, Wenger's side started winning when their top-four hopes had all but disappeared. In other words, when the pressure was off, and when all of their opponents had next to nothing to play for, including United who by this time had shifted their focus to Europe.
Granted, Arsenal's upturn does coincide with a switch in formation, so there's a tactical element to justify their improvement. However, playing three at the back is all well and good when you have options. It seems likely that the success of the change is undermined by a lack of classy defenders, a problem which Arsenal must deal with this summer.
Truth be told, Arsenal's Premier League campaign all but ended with a 2-0 defeat to Spurs in their last meaningful game, and while they had previously shown something of a spine to earn their place in this final, both Gabriel and Laurent Koscielny were excellent against Manchester City that day.
With both out and Shkodran Mustafi near certain to join them on the sidelines, this is a second-rate defence for an under-pressure team against opponents whose season would be called a resounding success even in the aftermath of a heavy defeat here.
Chelsea have no new injury concerns, and there's little to suggest that they'll ease off having won the title - their results over the last few games of the season suggest it's business as usual. In fact, they even hint Chelsea are more dangerous now the shackles are off.
Conte will also be determined to avoid a repeat of his first season in charge at Juventus, in which they were unbeaten in Serie A but limply lost the Coppa Italia final to Napoli.
There are similarities to be drawn with Arsenal's situation here - Napoli had finished fifth, one point off fourth, following a difficult spring run - but they're coincidental.
So, Chelsea should have no trouble scoring and it becomes a question of whether Arsenal can keep up. It's this dynamic - the likelihood that Arsenal have to risk exposing their frail defence - that undermines a long-established trend in FA Cup finals, for at least one side to fail to score.
Seventeen of the last 23 finals have involved a clean sheet for at least one of the two sides, a 5/4 chance here, but perhaps the fact that the figures are steadily coming closer together is symptomatic of English football's apparent distaste for organised defending.
Whatever the case, it would make more sense to back Chelsea to keep a clean sheet (7/4) or to win to nil (23/10), because if this Arsenal defence can keep out Diego Costa and Eden Hazard, it will be an almighty surprise.
And what of Michy Batshuayi? Here's a player who could even be on Arsenal's radar this summer, should Chelsea consider selling to a rival club rather than, say, Newcastle, as has been suggested.
The Belgian has taken time to make an impact since his arrival almost a year ago, but four goals over the closing three games of the season confirm the potential he has and his pace could frighten the life out of Mertesacker and co, who would arguably be more comfortable against Costa's robust threat.
Clearly, Conte prefers the Spaniard - that much has been made clear - but Batshuayi's form, and the fact he started the semi-final against Spurs, suggest there's at least an outside chance he gets the nod here.
Should that be the case, he'd be worth getting on-side in the man-of-the-match market at 14/1 - Costa is just an 11/2 chance - whereas little has been given away by quotes of around 6/4 to find the net given that he'd be a runner if coming off the bench.
Conte has these welcome problems to dwell upon, whereas his opposite number has to piece together a line-up for what could still be the final game of his Arsenal adventure, now well into its third decade.
Fifteen years have passed since Ray Parlour inspired Arsenal to victory over Chelsea in the FA Cup final. How Wenger wishes he could call upon a centre-back pairing even close to the quality of Tony Adams and Sol Campbell now.
With Rob Holding and Mertesacker potentially holding fort, a near-full-strength Chelsea will have no excuses and it's only the get-the-job-done personality of their manager which should lead us away from handicap markets to the most straightforward of them all.
Back Chelsea to beat Arsenal, without the need for extras. The best team in the country should be too good for a weakened version of the fifth.
Prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Arsenal
Opta Facts
This will be the second FA Cup final contested between Arsenal and Chelsea. The Gunners triumphed in the 2002 FA Cup Final in Cardiff 2-0, with goals from Ray Parlour and Freddie Ljungberg.
This is the first FA Cup final fixture to be played at both the Millennium Stadium and the new Wembley Stadium.
A win for Arsenal would see them claim their 13th trophy, moving them one ahead of Manchester United on 12.
If Chelsea were to win, it would move them to eight FA Cup trophies alongside Tottenham (third overall).
Regardless of the result, it will mean that seven of the last 11 FA Cups will have been won by either Arsenal or Chelsea.
Arsene Wenger could win his third FA Cup in four seasons by beating Chelsea. Should his team lift the trophy, he would be set a record for most FA Cup wins as a manager (7, currently on 6 with George Ramsay).
Antonio Conte could become the fifth Italian manager to win the FA Cup, with three of the previous four achieving this at Chelsea (Vialli 2000, Ancelotti 2010, Mancini 2011 and Di Matteo 2012).
Conte’s only previous domestic cup final as a manager (excluding Super Cups) came at Juventus, losing 2-0 to Napoli in 2011/12.
Chelsea haven’t lost any of their last four FA Cup Finals, all of which have been contested at Wembley (2007, 2009, 2010 and 2012). The last team to beat them in an FA Cup Final were in fact Arsenal in 2001/02.
The eventual top-flight champions have also gone on to win the FA Cup on 11 of the 18 occasions they’ve played in the final, most recently Chelsea in 2010. The last team to fail to win the double having reached the final was Manchester United in 2007.
This is Arsenal’s 20th FA Cup final appearance, the most in history. They haven’t lost any of their last five FA Cup Finals since losing to Liverpool in 2001.
Theo Walcott is the top-scoring player left in the competition with five goals. He scored the opening goal for Arsenal in their 2015 final win over Aston Villa (4-0).
Pedro has scored four times and assisted another two Chelsea goals en route to the FA Cup Final. A Spaniard has scored in the FA Cup final in two of the last three years (Santi Cazorla 2014 and Juan Mata 2016).
Pedro is the only Chelsea player to reach double figures for both goals (13) and assists (11) in all competitions this season.
John Terry is the only current Chelsea player still at the club who was part of the squad that beat Liverpool in 2012. He has been captain for Chelsea’s last four FA Cup wins.
The Gunners have won each of their last six games at Wembley. This is their best run at the ground (new or old).
Arsenal defeated Chelsea 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium back in September 2016 – this is still the heaviest defeat that Antonio Conte’s Chelsea side have suffered.
Chelsea have lost just twice in their last 13 games against Arsenal in all competitions (W8 D3), however one of those defeats was at Wembley (2015/16 Community Shield).
This will be Arsene Wenger’s 57th game against Chelsea as Arsenal boss – he’s won as many as he’s lost (W21 D14 L21).
Alexis Sanchez has been involved in 44 goals in 50 appearances for Arsenal so far in 2016-17 (29 goals, 15 assists).
Posted at 1545 BST on 25/05/17.
