Ahead of the third round, our Andy Schooler picks out 100/1 and 250/1 shots for glory in this season's FA Cup.
The big guns enter the FA Cup on Friday night so it’s time to preview the competition from an outright perspective.
I say big guns but watch some of English football’s biggest names this weekend and I suspect you will find them unrecognisable from the teams they field week in, week out, in the Premier League.
And such ‘rotation’ will be far from confined to the top-flight clubs. Expect most of those from the Sky Bet Championship to make similar changes to their line-up.
Various interested parties will tell you otherwise, but the FA Cup’s stock has never been lower and that lack of prestige makes the outright market a real minefield.
Who will take things seriously? Which managers couldn’t give a hoot? Even if the big boys survive the early rounds, will other competitions take priority come March and April?
All are questions that need answering but it is difficult to do so.
What we do know is that even in the current era, the powerhouses of English football do tend to be victorious.
Over the past decade, Wigan and Portsmouth have emerged as surprise winners but the other eight seasons have seen the cup won by one of Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City.
For this renewal, none of the Big Six is available at greater than 10/1 and it’s a case of take your pick for I struggle to really split them.
Unlike like season, all six have European football to deal with come February and those ties regularly sit next to FA Cup dates (see below), while all bar City could easily be fighting to secure a top-four spot for the rest of the campaign.
FA CUP ROUND DATES
Third round (Jan 5-8) – followed by Carabao Cup SF 1st legs (Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea)
Fourth round (Jan 27-28) - preceded by Carabao Cup SF 2nd legs (Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea) & followed by Premier League midweek round
Fifth round (Feb 17-18) – preceded (Spurs, Man City, Liverpool) and followed by (Man Utd, Chelsea) Champions League last-16 1st legs; preceded & followed by Europa League last-32 1st and 2nd legs (Arsenal)
Quarter-finals (Mar 17-18) – preceded by Champions League L16 2nd legs (Man Utd & Chelsea) and Europa League L16 2nd legs
Semi-finals (Apr 21-22) – followed by Champions League and Europa League SF 1st legs
Final (May 19) - preceded by Europa League final and followed by (a week later) Champions League final
If pushed, I’d side with the 11/2 favourites, City.
They’ve shown in the Carabao Cup that they can make changes and still put out strong sides capable of making progress.
Even when Pep Guardiola has given some of his youngsters their chance, they’ve lined up alongside a smattering of senior players with real quality. His squad is simply the best.
He also showed that winning with such ‘lesser’ teams still means plenty to him – just look at the celebrations after the Carabao Cup quarter-final win at Leicester. That’s sure to elicit a response from those he trusts in this competition.
The problem with backing City, who start at home to Burnley, is they are currently fighting on all fronts and frankly the FA Cup, for now at least, is surely the lowest of their four priorities.
You could make that five as achieving an unbeaten league season is another target which could be realistic come April when they face a devilish set of fixtures while potentially chasing an unprecedented quadruple.
Is this when the #MCFC Quadruple-Treble-unbeaten dream dies? My look at City's record chase for @SportingLife https://t.co/j69mAoyGdL pic.twitter.com/YqDAhgvPHK
— Andy Schooler (@NetTalkTennis) December 24, 2017
So rather than pick out one of six and hope for the best, I’d much prefer to keep stakes small and try to find an outsider or two and back them each-way.
For all the trophy success of the big clubs, the competition has consistently rewarded punters with big-priced finalists.
As already said, Wigan (2013) and Portsmouth (2008) both triumphed but the likes of Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Hull, Stoke and Cardiff have also made it all the way to Wembley over the past 10 years which clearly shows the potential in the market.
In the Premier League, both Leicester and Burnley warrant consideration given their positions in the table – the pair are already 10 and 14 points clear of the relegation zone and would appear to have little to worry about on that front.
Looking up the table, seventh place could bring with it European football but right now that’s a long way off.
Both would therefore seem to have a good opportunity to put some real focus on the FA Cup.
Leicester, away to Fleetwood on Saturday, are offered at 28/1 and have really picked up under Claude Puel. They’ve tightened up at the back, are offering goal threat via Jamie Vardy, while Riyad Mahrez is vibrant once again.
The concern here is that Puel threw out a much-changed team at home to City in the League Cup quarter-finals – a decision which angered many Foxes fans – and if he can do that with Wembley almost within touching distance, what is he going to do in the early rounds of this competition?
Burnley, who made the firth round last season only to lose to non-league Lincoln, at 100/1 also appeal but the problem there is two-fold.
First they are away to Man City in their opening match and secondly Sean Dyche’s decision to field his strongest-available team in virtually every game so far this season could well catch up with the Clarets come the business end of this competition.
Instead a 100/1 shot I prefer is Palace.
Roy Hodgson is doing a terrific job at Selhurst Park and the Eagles have now taken 22 points from their last 15 league games.
If (OK, it’s a big if) the league had started in October, Palace would be in the top half.
That’s reflected by their current form of one defeat in 11. They should have become the first team to beat City in that run and were convincing victors at Leicester.
The injured Scott Dann will definitely be missed at the back but Mamadou Sakho should return soon and the likes of James Tomkins and rising star Timothy Fosu-Mensah provide a sturdy platform from which they can build attacks.
Wilfried Zaha is enjoying a fine campaign while you’d expect Hodgson to get the best out of Christian Benteke sooner rather than later.
Yes, Palace still very much have a relegation battle to fight but if they continue their current form they will soon pull clear and that would allow them to take this competition seriously.
It’s worth remembering that Hodgson took Fulham to the Europa League final during his spell there and also has cup wins in Sweden and Switzerland on his managerial CV.
Palace start away to Brighton on Monday but with that being a big derby for two clubs with a long history, it’s hard to see either side fielding a truly weak side.
For me, Sky Bet's 100/1 simply looks too big and is worth some small change.
My other selection comes from even further down the market and is admittedly a real long shot – Sheffield Wednesday at 250/1 (Sky Bet).
The Championship club have seriously disappointed this season and currently sit 17th in the table.
However, there’s little doubt that a talented squad of players is underperforming and there appears every chance that the soon-to-be-appointed new manager is able to get more out of them than Carlos Carvalhal, who looked a dead man walking for weeks until leaving the club on Christmas Eve.
Optimistic fans may well feel a 13-point gap to the play-offs can be bridged over the next 20 league games but a more realistic target – one which should be easily achieved – will be to steer clear of the drop zone which they are currently six points above.
Their position essentially means that come the end of February their league season may have little at stake and if they are still in the FA Cup by then, they would have the ability to upset one of the big boys.
They have the experienced Glenn Loovens at the back, Barry Bannan in midfield, while there’s an abundance of riches up front with Gary Hooper, Steven Fletcher and Jordan Rhodes battling for places and Fernando Forestieri likely to return form injury soon.
The Owls start away to Carlisle, a mid-table League Two outfit, which is a decent-enough draw.
In short, there’s potential for Wednesday here and so some small change can be thrown their way.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Crystal Palace at 100/1
0.5pt e.w. Sheffield Wednesday at 250/1
Posted at 1410 GMT on 04/01/18.
