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Free football betting tips: Sunday FA Cup games, including Nottingham Forest v Arsenal

Football

Sun January 07, 2018 · 7y ago

David John and Ben Coley combine to preview Sunday's four FA Cup third-round ties.

Newport County v Leeds (1200GMT, BBC1 Wales)

It is the only the second time in history that this pair have crossed swords but the rematch comes just a few months after they met in the Carabao Cup at Elland Road.

Leeds were 5-1 winners on the night, built on the foundation of Kemar Roofe’s hat-trick, but Newport gave a good account of themselves in the first period and even had the temerity to take the lead in West Yorkshire.

The away side are in a similar situation to 12 months ago in as much as they face an awkward tie at a lesser rival - they managed to get the better of Cambridge United then before suffering an embarrassing defeat in the following round against non-league Sutton.

Manager Thomas Christiansen will make the inevitable changes to his starting XI but another dubious exit at such an early stage won’t sit well with the fans so he needs to get the balance just right in terms of putting out a side capable of doing the job, preferably at the first attempt.

A couple of disappointing efforts over New Year in the Sky Bet Championship has seen them lose ground in the race for automatic promotion so perhaps this game has come at just the right time in terms of a quick reset before pressing on once more in the league.

Both teams to score would be my selection if pressed for a bet but I am happy to let that one go at 4/5 considering there are plenty of imponderables before the line-ups are unveiled.

Leeds are 5/6 to win on the day and I have a feeling they will do enough to land the odds but it is a game I am more than happy to pass on.

Prediction: Newport County 1-3 Leeds (DJ)

Shrewsbury v West Ham (1400, BBC1)

There is little doubt West Ham are gaining some momentum under David Moyes and a couple of impressive results over the New Year period continues to rebuild the confidence of both manager and players.

The Hammers may not have offered a great deal in the final third against Tottenham on Thursday night beyond Pedro Obiang’s wonder strike from 35 yards but the effort they displayed in defence to thwart the hosts time and again was admirable and highlights a team all of sudden utterly committed to the cause.

Last-ditch tackles and blocks inside the area meant Spurs’ only way back into the game was a late peach of a strike of their own from distance as Moyes clearly wants to make his side tougher to break down before perhaps looking at more lively options further up the field.

Like all Premier League managers though over this particular weekend, he is in a bit of a quandary when it comes to team selection.

There is no doubt he will want to give some of his squad a breather but too much tinkering could potentially undo all of the good recent work and leave them with unwanted egg on their face either needing a replay or even going out of the competition.

It would be a big surprise to see West Ham under the sort of pressure they endured against Tottenham but high-flying League One outfit Shrewsbury are a classic FA Cup opponent for the first week in January and well within their rights to have the scent of an upset in their nostrils.

"There is a real buzz about the place," said the home side’s chief executive Brian Caldwell.

"This is more than just a game of football," he added for a fixture that will take place in front of a sold-out New Meadow crowd of just under 10,000.

West Ham are even-money chances to get through to the next round at the first attempt and the time has arrived in this preview to try and do a bit of second guessing as to who Moyes will send into battle.

The game absolutely screams Andre Ayew to me, the Ghanaian gadget player capable of coming up with a goal and already proving himself this season as a bit of a cup cracker with three in the in the version sponsored by Carabao.

Rested up on Thursday against Spurs and only playing the final 25 minutes, Ayew is the ideal type with plenty of nous to toss into this situation and backing him to get on the score sheet somewhere along the line at 51/20 represents a very tempting wager.

Prediction: Shrewsbury 1-2 West Ham (DJ)

Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon (1500)

"I wouldn’t blame Pochettino for changing his whole 11," said AFC Wimbledon boss Neil Ardley earlier this week as he prepares his side for a trip to Wembley to face one of the FA Cup favourites.

Spurs ended a hectic Christmas period with a 1-1 draw against West Ham on Thursday, two days on from what was ultimately a hard-fought win at Swansea, and it does seem sure that their manager will ring the changes as a result. It's unlikely to make a difference to the result.

AFC Wimbledon have been struggling towards the foot of the League One table all season and their FA Cup pedigree is limited. They scraped through against Curzon Ashton last year only to lose to non-league Sutton and while their away from this season does include victory at Blackburn, this is an entirely different kettle of fish. Ardley referenced the myriad ways even Spurs Reserves can hurt them, how it differs from the direct approach of their regular competitors, and how difficult it will be to stop.

At 1/7, Spurs are too short even for a Sunday four-fold but it's fairly tempting to throw them in conceding two goals on the handicap at odds-against. They've put five past both Stoke and Southampton recently, four past Liverpool and three past Dortmund and Real, all of which underlines that an early goal here could make for a chastening afternoon for the visitors.

Adrian showed on Wednesday that an outstanding goalkeeping display can make life difficult even for a world-class side and it's probable that Harry Kane and various cohorts aren't involved. Still, Fernando Llorente is an international stand-in who scored against former club Swansea on Tuesday and there's plenty more talent waiting for this opportunity to prove a point, including Georges-Kevin N'Koudou, who scored in the Champions League last month.

The one to be interested in, however, is Erik Lamela. He's been used sparingly since returning from another injury setback but made his first start against Swansea and seems certain to be handed another here. And he's exactly the type of player Ardley knows can hurt his side; his threat, unlike Llorente's, is totally different to that experienced further down the football pyramid.

Lamela showed us last season that if handed an opportunity like this, he's likely to take it. He contributed a goal and three assists as Spurs thumped Gillingham 5-0, a game in which N'Koudou made his first Spurs appearance and one which further underlines the approach Pochettino will take. Back then he said, "the young players have the quality to impress and are very important for Tottenham for our identity," and it'll be a similar side here.

There's no reason Lamela can't once again run the show and, short of a Man of the Match market to get really stuck into, I'll back him to score first, each-way, at a generous 6/1.

Prediction: Tottenham 4-0 AFC Wimbledon (BC)

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (1600, BT Sport 2)

Managerless Nottingham Forest host energy-less Arsenal in the final FA Cup game on Sunday.

Arsene Wenger's side hauled themselves off the canvas for a point against Chelsea to bring to a close a busy and dramatic Christmas period which had seen them go blow-for-blow with Liverpool, cling on against Palace and shoot themselves in the foot against West Brom before Wednesday's 2-2 thriller.

All told, Arsenal have played eight games in the last 25 days and, crucially, not one of them has been settled early. They've drawn five, won three, and all three of those victories came by a one-goal margin. In other words, they've been involved in intense domestic games for an extended period and there's no let-up, as they face Chelsea in the EFL Cup on Wednesday before travelling to Bournemouth in the Premier League.

Clearly, Wenger is not best pleased by the scheduling and he has a point, although he may not be at the City Ground to reiterate it. Wenger will discover his fate on Friday following comments made to Mike Dean in the West Brom tunnel with a touchline ban certain and a stadium ban possible. He's yet to miss a game in his two-and-a-bit decades in charge of Arsenal, but that could change.

Whether Wenger's absence affects the result here is unlikely. He can and will make changes but so will Forest caretaker boss Gary Brazil, whose side have failed to score in three matches since Christmas and lost to both Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland, neither in flying form, at home.

Arsenal's second-string won 4-0 here in the early stages of last season's League Cup and another fairly comfortable victory lies in store for an outfit who, despite their flaws, boast a virtually impeccable FA Cup record. It's over 20 years since they lost at this stage and defeat here is borderline unthinkable.

In the circumstances, then, with the likes of Kolasinac, Koscielny, Monreal, Giroud and now Xhaka all absent from the away side, the goalscorer markets look the place to go for value and I'm drawn to Ainsley Maitland-Niles at a massive 25/1.

His performances against Chelsea drew credit from Wenger, who was delighted with the youngster despite the fact he was exposed for the second goal. That serves as a reminder that while he may yet develop into a world-class left-back, Maitland-Niles is really a midfielder, desperate to get hold of the ball and look forward, and it's in this role that Wenger has often used him in cup competitions.

There's a concern that he played the full whack against Chelsea having come on early at West Brom, but there's enough of a gap between the two games to believe that Wenger will set him the challenge of starting again and with that the possibility that he'll do so from a more advanced role.

Even from defence, he's looked sufficiently threatening for us to be comfortable with a bet at 25/1, but were he named as part of a midfield which will surely be missing Mesut Ozil and probably even Jack Wilshere, we'd be talking about a 10/1 shot.

It's also worth sticking Danny Welbeck in the staking plan as 4/1 simply looks too big a price.

He needs to force his way into the Arsenal side if he's to be a key part of England's World Cup plans and this looks a good opportunity, with Alexandre Lacazette and Alexis Sanchez both likely to be rested even if the former could do with a confidence-boosting brace.

Welbeck scored the only goal as Arsenal forced their way past West Ham in the Carabao Cup three weeks ago and has been a consistent contributor for Arsenal in the FA Cup, including when scoring twice against Southampton in round four last year.

His overall FA Cup strike-rate of 0.31 goals per game is a tenth up on his league return (0.21) and better still for Arsenal (0.44) and this is an opportunity he cannot afford to pass up.

Prediction: Nottm Forest 0-3 Arsenal (BC)