With the FA Cup returning this weekend, our tipsters pick out their best bets for Saturday's fourth-round action, as well as some potential shocks that could be worth backing.
Football betting tips: FA Cup fourth round
2pts Tottenham to beat Brighton in 90 minutes at 19/20 (Unibet)
1.5pts BTTS in Everton v Brentford at 4/5 (General)
1.5pts BTTS ‘NO’ at 3/4 in Kidderminster v West Ham (BetVictor)
1.5pts Plymouth to score 1+ goals v Chelsea at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Stoke v Wigan at evens (bet365)
1pt Wolves to win to nil v Norwich at 13/8 (General)
1pt Coventry to qualify v Southampton at 7/2 (General)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Cambridge v Luton at 10/11 (General)
Bets are in 90 minutes unless otherwise stated
Which teams could cause an upset?
Joe Townsend
Saturday's FA Cup fourth round action is not blessed with potential upsets.
It's hard to make a case for Sky Bet League One side Plymouth (50/1) to shock Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, non-league Kidderminster (14/1) to do likewise against David Moyes' reliable West Ham, or for Crystal Palace, so impressive this season under Patrick Vieira, to slip up when hosting out-of-form League Two strugglers Hartlepool (22/1).
Rampant Championship leaders Fulham, who have scored 24 goals in their last five matches, would normally pique plenty of interest when priced up at 20/1 to win their tie in 90 minutes.
They are away at Manchester City.
One side does stick out a little and that is COVENTRY, who head to Southampton.
Mark Robins' team have rediscovered some form of late, winning three of their last five in all competitions. They sit 10th in the Sky Bet Championship, just five points off the play-off places with two games in hand.
According to Infogol's performance-based xG table, ranked by expected goals data, Coventry rank as the eighth best Championship team this season.
Southampton, meanwhile, are possibly the most unpredictable team in the Premier League, with their current position of 12th absolutely justified both according to xG and their middling, inconsistent nature.
It's worth opposing Ralph Hassenhuttl's men, who needed extra time to get past Swansea in the last round, and backing COVENTRY TO QUALIFY at the general price of 7/2.
Everton v Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT
- Everton 1/1 | Draw 23/10 | Brentford 13/5
Jake Osgathorpe
A new regime at Goodison Park, and boy it was needed.
Rafa Benitez had overseen a horrific run of form and performances by the Toffees. They had collected five points from a possible 39, averaging 1.17 xGF and 1.97 xGA per game in that period which ranked them as the third worst team in the Premier League.
But will Frank Lampard be able to get the ship pointing in the right direction?
Maybe, but Lampard's strength, as showed in spells at Derby and Chelsea, is in attacking play, not organising a defence.
Everton's rearguard is atrocious and needs fixing sharpish. Whether Lampard can do that remains to be seen, but what he does have at Everton is an abundance of exciting, young attacking players, so expect plenty of entertaining games involving the Toffees.
Brentford are on a four-game losing streak heading into this clash, but have performed well in their last two, warranting at least a point in both defeats to Wolves and Manchester United.
They've been poor away from home, though, especially at the back (1.85 xGA per game in PL), which should mean Everton can create plenty of good chances.
The Bees, however, won't go down quietly, with Thomas Frank's side having scored in 20 of their 28 games in all competitions this season (71%).
They have seen BOTH TEAMS SCORE in 57% of games in all competitions, and this has the recipe to be another of those.
Everton will be attack-minded under Lampard, and prior to his arrival saw BTTS land in 61% of matches in all competitions this season.
We should see chances at either end in an entertaining game at Goodison Park.
Stoke v Wigan
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT
- Stoke 3/4 | Draw 13/5 | Wigan 100/30
Jake Pearson
Despite Stoke’s position of 12th in the Sky Bet Championship, they have conceded the seventh fewest goals in the division this term, with their defensive process, as per expected goals (xG), backing up the theory that the strength of Michael O’Neill’s men certainly lies in their ability to limit their opponents.
In League One, only Rotherham have conceded fewer times than Wigan this term, with the Latics' process also second only to the Millers. Offensively, however, while Liam Richardson’s men may have netted the second most in the third tier of English football, eleven sides in the division have actually created more and better opportunities according to xG metrics.
Wigan’s inability to create on a consistent basis may be going unpunished in League One, but up against a reasonable capable Potters defence, they could find it difficult to get on the scoresheet.
17 of Stoke’s 28 league matches this term have seen UNDER 2.5 GOALS, as did their 2-0 victory over Leyton Orient in the proceeding round of this competition. The 2.01 available in bet365’s Asian Lines section about fewer than three goals in this match is a price worth getting on side.
Wolves v Norwich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT
- Wolves 3/5 | Draw 13/5 | Norwich 9/2
Liam Kelly
Although they’ve somewhat stunningly moved out of the relegation zone, I’m not convinced Norwich’s improved results recently are a result of an improved process. Beating Everton and Watford teams that were in disarray – both sacking their manager after defeat to the Canaries – is hardly a sign that Dean Smith’s side are on fire.
Prior to those matches, in which Norwich overperformed their expected goals numbers (five goals, 2.65 xG), they averaged just 0.9 xG per game in the Premier League, severely struggling to be a threat going forward.
Up against a strong Wolves outfit at Molineux, Norwich will surely find it hard to create chances. Therefore, WOLVES TO WIN TO NIL looks a value play at 13/8.
Wolves have conceded only four goals in their last 11 fixtures in all competitions, including games against Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United. Bruno Lage’s men should be backed to keep up their recent winning form with a clean sheet.
Cambridge v Luton
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT
- TV Channel: BBC iPlayer
- Cambridge 11/4 | Draw 12/5 | Luton 19/20
Read Liam Kelly's full preview
A good FA Cup run might be all that Cambridge can look forward to this season, but it will be tough to beat a Luton side that enter the game in the midst of a solid spell.
Rising to ninth in the Championship in recent weeks, it's no more than the Hatters deserve for their performances this term, ranking fifth on Infogol's expected goals (xG) table.
Luton's strength has undoubtedly been their ability to limit opponents to few chances, averaging 1.09 expected goals against (xGA) per game in the league.
That should continue against a Cambridge team that have scored 38 goals in 29 games in League One.
It may well be difficult to break down the hosts at the other end, however, who are generally strong at the Abbey Stadium, making UNDER 2.5 GOALS of interest at 10/11.
The unders have landed in Cambridge's last four matches, and they'll want to stay in this game for as long as possible to keep the cup dream alive.
Tottenham v Brighton
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT
- TV Channel: ITV4
- Tottenham 17/20 | Draw 12/5 | Brighton 3/1
Read Liam Kelly's full preview
Brighton are strong, averaging 1.20 xGA per game in the league. Defensive numbers worthy of their good position in the table.
Spurs' improved form might be tough to keep out, however, which makes TOTTENHAM TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES value at a shade of odds-on (19/20).
Brighton have caused Spurs issues previously, but this is a different Tottenham side, one that is currently playing at the level of a Premier League title contender.
With the benefit of home advantage, solid moves in the transfer window and the possibility that Son Heung-min returns for this game, they should oust Brighton from the FA Cup here. Back them to do so.
Kidderminster v West Ham
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT
- TV Channel: BBC One
- Kidderminster 10/1 | Draw 9/2 | West Ham 1/4
Read Jake Pearson's full preview
Matches involving West Ham have taken something of a chaotic turn of late, their six Premier League fixtures prior to the winter break seeing a total of 23 goals, with five goals scored on four separate occasions, but the Hammers should have too much quality to allow Kidderminster to create any real opportunities of note.
Creating chances isn’t really the forte of the Carpetmen, either, with their expected goals (xG) tally much lower than their actual goals for tally.
With Moyes expected to take this match seriously, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ at a standout price of 3/4 makes appeal.
Chelsea v Plymouth
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT
- TV Channel: BBC Red Button
- Chelsea 1/25 | Draw 14/1 | Plymouth 40/1
Chelsea will win this game comfortably but the visitors from Sky Bet League One can at least find the net at some stage across the 90 minutes. Thomas Tuchel's side conceded in their 5-1 victory over Chesterfield in the last round.
Granted it is two divisions below their Stamford Bridge opponents but Plymouth do tend to score goals. They've netted 47 from 28 outings in the league with 28 of those coming on the road.
Argyle have scored at least two in each of their league three away contests and - with changes expected - they can at least get one despite the bookmakers not massively fancying it to happen.
At a price of 11/8, PLYMOUTH TO SCORE 1+ GOALS looks a solid bet. It's the same price as BTTS, and while saying Chelsea won't score in this contest is an incredibly brave/stupid statement, there's little point in adding factors to the same price.
ALSO READ: Sunday's FA Cup betting previews
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