With a 9/1 winner in the first-leg, Tom Carnduff is hoping for more profit as Burton take on Manchester City on Wednesday.
Recommended bets
1pt Liam Boyce to have 2+ shots on target at 13/2
1pt Phil Foden to have 2+ shots on target at 7/2
1pt Fabian Delph to score anytime at 8/1
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Burton v Manchester City (Pirelli Stadium, 1945 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
We can confidently state that Manchester City will be in the final of the Carabao Cup in February, even though they still have to play the second-leg at the Pirelli Stadium on Wednesday night.
Pep Guardiola's men hammered Burton 9-0 when the two sides met at the Etihad, completely destroying any hope the Brewers held of a huge upset and an appearance at Wembley.
What makes things worse for the hosts is the fact that City's under-23s side are in Checkatrade Trophy action on Tuesday night, meaning Guardiola will have to play more first-teamers than he would have liked here.
The EFL refused City's request to have this game moved and that should see a similar line-up to the one from the first leg.
However, in front of a packed ground where the home supporters will want to see their side give it a good go, I'd expect to see Burton enjoy a few more chances than they had in the first meeting.
Speaking in his pre-match press conference, Nigel Clough stated that "all you can do is take what you can from it, just look at the game in isolation on the night and say, 'this is how we want to play, can we get those little individual things, can somebody get a goal, get some youngsters on the pitch, some experience on the pitch?'
"We'll just take what we can from it. But it's going to be about more than what we get. "It's about the supporters and everything. The fact that they'll see Manchester City here, and Pep Guardiola."
They'll try and blank out the aggregate scoreline in their mind and see what they can do against a talented City side with home comforts.
Betting guide
Score prediction: Burton 2-5 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 50/1)
Probably one of the more bizarre scorelines I've gone for in a preview, but it seems the type of game that justifies it. City's youth squad being in action 24 hours earlier means that they'll be a host of senior players on display and they've already proven that they can beat weaker opposition. Guardiola will want his side to put in a professional performance, but it's much easier said than done to simply ignore the 9-0 that is in your favour, especially if they grab a few first-half goals.
Burton can capitalise on that and strike on more than one occasion. It is Manchester City, but Burton have only failed to find the net in one of their previous 11 at home, showing they have little issue in scoring at the Pirelli.
Best bet: Liam Boyce to have 2+ shots on target at 13/2
The first of a few best bets for this game involves Burton's top scorer Liam Boyce. The 27-year-old has ten goals and six assists in all competitions this season, including two goals in the Carabao Cup. He may not have registered a shot in the first leg, but the fact that Burton only had four shots in total highlights the balance of the game there.
Boyce should be heavily involved when Burton go forward. I've already discussed the fact that Burton are capable of scoring and Boyce will be one of those in the running for a goal if it is to come for the hosts. He can also be on penalty duty, and you never know what could happen if the game does become open as the scoreline increases.
Best bet: Phil Foden to have 2+ shots on target at 7/2
Staying with the stats betting, but this one is a 7/2 shot on the Manchester City side of things. Phil Foden should be given a start as Guardiola looks to hand the youngster more first-team minutes.
The attacking midfielder was brought on in place of Kevin De Bruyne on the hour mark in the first-leg, scoring a goal and having two shots on target despite being on the pitch for a third of the game.
Foden has played just over 90 minutes of Premier League football this season, meaning the Carabao Cup is vital for his progression. It's expected that he's involved for the entire game - regardless of the scoreline.
Best bet: Fabian Delph to score anytime at 8/1
He could return to his native midfield position in this game as Guardiola looks to rest other players in that area of the pitch. He has established himself as a left-back in recent seasons, but Oleksandr Zinchenko should retain that position from the first-leg.
Even if Guardiola does opt to put Delph in at left-back, it's worth noting that both Zinchenko and Kyle Walker managed four shots between them from the full-back positions in the first-leg.
RequestABet: Liam Boyce and Phil Foden to have 2+ shots on target each, over 4.5 goals in the match
Opta facts
- The only previous competitive meeting between Burton and Man City was in the first leg – with Burton suffering their biggest defeat since becoming a Football League side in 2009-10 (0-9).
- Man City’s 9-0 win over Burton in the first leg is the biggest ever margin of victory in a semi-final of English cup competition.
- Burton have won two of their last three home games against Premier League opposition, winning League Cup ties against QPR in 2014-15 and Burnley this season.
- Manchester City are looking to reach consecutive League Cup finals for the first time. The last team to both reach and win consecutive finals in the competition were Manchester United in 2008-09 and 2009-10.
- Burton mustered just one shot on target against Man City in the first leg, with that coming from Lucas Akins after just seven seconds.
- Burton manager Nigel Clough has lost just one of his last five home games against Premier League opponents (W2 D2), with that defeat coming in the League Cup second round in 2016-17 (0-5 vs Liverpool).
- Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in 13 goals in his 13 League Cup appearances for Manchester City (9 goals, 4 assists).
- Man City’s Gabriel Jesus has scored five goals in the League Cup this season, including four against Burton in the first leg. The last time a Man City player scored more in the competition was in 2013-14 (Alvaro Negredo and Edin Dzeko, six each).
Odds correct at 1725 GMT (22/01/19)
