Football betting tips: Merseyside derby
2pts Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 (Betfred, William Hill)
2pts Everton +1 Asian Handicap at 5/4 (bet365)
0.5pt No goalscorer at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jordan Pickford to be shown a card at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Illiman Ndiaye to score anytime at 13/2 (Unibet)
BuildABet @ 23/1
- Everton +2 goal handicap
- Under 2.5 goals
- Pickford card
- Ndiaye 1+ shots on target
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Arne Slot's first Merseyside derby will be Goodison's last.
The circumstances are undeniably unique but the nature of the contest is unlikely to be.
When Everton and Liverpool meet it's rarely a spectacle. Blood and thunder more commonplace than goals and chances. Too much to lose. Not worth the risk. Best to play safe.
It should still be quite the atmosphere, just not necessarily one for the purists.
What are the best bets?
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That being said, the added drama of Slot having grossly underestimated both Plymouth and the FA Cup and suffered the first setback of what had hitherto been a seamless nine months in charge, allied with David Moyes returning to Merseyside since this match was originally meant to take place back in December, does make for some lovely narrative.
Whether Everton's move to their new stadium at Bramley-Moore Docks will signal a change in the consistency of how Merseyside derbies play out is one for the future, for now the statistics are irrefutable.
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This fixture has seen the most goalless draws (12) in Premier League history.
Eleven of the last 13 meetings and all of the last five have involved UNDER 2.5 GOALS. Unders at 5/4 and NO GOALSCORER at 14/1 are advised.
A lack of goalscoring ultimately cost Sean Dyche his job, but he left behind a team with serious defensive steel.
Everton have shared five goalless draws in the league already this season, with 17 of their 27 matches in all competitions going unders.
Since Moyes arrived, goals may have flowed more easily but three of the Toffees' five games have still involved two goals or fewer, with a pair of clean sheets collected along the way.
And on that basis, as well the context of the fixture, while it might seem brave to in any way oppose a Liverpool team that has lost only three times all season, I'm prepared to take EVERTON on the +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at a generous 5/4.
Everton or Draw (Double Chance) is available at 2/1, but I prefer the added insurance of a possible returned stake should the Reds win by a single goal.
Pickford plays pantomime villain
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There is a perception that in recent seasons JORDAN PICKFORD has calmed down.
It's a fair reflection of his growing maturity, with him now far less likely to do something rash. His game management - more specifically time wasting - has also got better, or worse depending on your point of view.
Pickford was booked five times last season and on six occasions in 2022/23 - including in both Merseyside derbies. This season he has received seven yellow cards already, for a combination of time wasting, dissent and generally looking to aggravate the opposition for his own team's benefit.
He should be backed at 6/1 TO BE SHOWN A CARD here.
Everton and England's goalkeeper picks the moment his team needs him most. And he'll be needed on Wednesday.
Illi the man for Moyes
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I feel a little daft going for unders and no goalscorer, only to round off with an ANYTIME SCORER but it's possible I would never forgive myself should 13/2 ILLIMAN NDIAYE score and I left it out of the staking plan.
Everton's star man all season, it's fair to say he was a little under appreciated by his previous manager - much to the consternation of the Goodison faithful.
Moyes is getting the best from him, with Ndiaye scoring in each of Everton's last three matches. In all competitions he's found the net in four of their last six, and five of their last nine fixtures.
Even better, he's now on penalty duty.
Team news
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Everton could have full-back Vitalii Mykolenko back fit although Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Armando Broja, Youssef Chermiti and Dwight McNeil remain out.
Liverpool will be unrecognisable from the XI knocked out of the FA Cup by Plymouth, but Trent Alexander-Arnold appears unlikely to be fit in time.
Predicted line-ups
Everton: Pickford; O'Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Harrison, Gueye, Garner, Doucoure, Ndiaye; Beto.
Liverpool: Alisson; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Diaz, Gakpo.
Match facts
- Everton won 2-0 in their last Premier League game against Liverpool in April 2024, last winning consecutive league Merseyside derbies in the 1984-85 campaign.
- Liverpool’s 2-0 loss in this exact fixture last season ended a 12-game unbeaten away run in the Premier League against Everton (W3 D9). They’ve not lost consecutive visits to Goodison Park since a run of three between 1992 and 1994.
- Everton vs Liverpool is the fixture to have seen the most red cards (23) and been drawn 0-0 the most (12) in Premier League history. Also, Liverpool have scored more 90th-minute winners against Everton in the competition than any other side against a single opponent (5).
- Liverpool have won 99 games against Everton in all competitions (D77 L68) – if they win this match, it will be the fifth time an English league side has beaten another 100 times since the formation of the Football League in 1888 (Arsenal 111 vs Everton, Manchester United 106 vs Aston Villa, Liverpool 103 vs Aston Villa, Arsenal 100 vs Manchester City).
- This is just the third time in the Premier League that Liverpool are facing Everton while top of the table at the start of the day – the others were a 5-2 win and a 0-0 draw in 2019-20, with the Reds going on to win the title that season.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League games (W14 D5). On both previous occasions that they’ve gone into an away league game against Everton on a 19+ game unbeaten run, they’ve lost – 0-1 in October 1978 while on a 23-game run and 0-1 in March 1988 when on a 31-game run.
- Everton have won their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 8-2 – it’s as many wins as they’d had in their previous 21 league games, and as many goals as they’d scored in their previous 14. Manager David Moyes last won four consecutive league games in November 2021 with West Ham, while he last did so as Toffees boss in March 2008.
- Everton have led 3-0 at half-time in both of their last two Premier League home games (vs Tottenham and Leicester) – no side in Premier League history has ever led by 3+ goals in three consecutive home games.
- Everton’s David Moyes won just three of his 22 Premier League Merseyside derbies in charge between 2002 and 2013 (D7 L12). This is his first match against Liverpool as Toffees boss since a goalless draw at Anfield in May 2013.
- This is Arne Slot’s first meeting with Everton as Liverpool manager. Only one Reds boss has won their first ever league Merseyside derby when that match has come away from home, with Kenny Dalglish overseeing a 3-2 victory in September 1985.
- Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in 21 goals in Liverpool’s 12 Premier League away games this season (13 goals, 8 assists). It’s the joint-most by a player on the road in a single campaign in the competition’s history, level with Andy Cole in 1993-94 (12 goals, 9 assists).
- Iliman Ndiaye has scored in each of his last three Premier League games – the last player to score in four in a row for Everton was Richarlison in February/March 2021, a run that included a goal in a 2-0 victory against Liverpool.
Odds correct at 1830 GMT on (10/2/24)
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