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Everton vs Aston Villa betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Ollie Watkins 2+ shots on target at 5/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Aston Villa to beat Everton at 29/20 (General)
Everton deserve huge credit for the way in which they overcame the ten-point deduction imposed upon them, yet results against those at the top have been lacking.
Add those points back on and the Toffees are 12th, much better than recent seasons, but still the lower, uneventful area of the Premier League table. Most fans would, understandably, take that at this stage.
Five games against those currently in the top five have ended in defeat, including a 4-0 hammering on their trip to Villa Park. They've lost double the amount of games they've won at Goodison Park this season.
Villa remain firmly involved in the title race and know the importance of victory here given Liverpool have their part of the winter break this weekend.
What are the best bets?
There's a general price of 29/20 available on an ASTON VILLA WIN, which I think is good enough value to get involved with.
A look at the other prices on away teams at Everton this season perhaps underlines why. Arsenal were 1/2 and Manchester City were 8/13, of course they're better sides overall, but Villa currently sit above them in the table.
Brighton were also floating around the 7/5 marker, that was a draw, while Newcastle were 5/4 when beaten. The fact you can get Villa a bigger price than both of those is enough for me.
Villa's own away form has improved despite that disappointing defeat from 2-0 up against Manchester United. Two of the last four have been wins - including a trip to Tottenham - while that game at Old Trafford should have ended in victory.
Another value play for this contest is the 5/2 best price available, even with the 2/1 general price, on OLLIE WATKINS 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET.
The striker leads the way for shots on target in this Villa squad, as expected, with his 23 so far well clear of next-best Moussa Diaby by nine.
Five away games against those currently in the bottom-half have delivered a total of 14 shots, six of which have been on target, alongside two goals.
Villa sit in the top six for shots taken in away games this season, while Everton average 12.1 against in home games. Watkins should get chances to strike if Villa are to secure victory.
BuildABet @ 27/1
- Aston Villa to win
- Ollie Watkins 2+ shots on target
- Aston Villa 6+ corners
- James Garner 4+ tackles
Click here to back with Sky Bet
VILLA's potential for victory has already been discussed, with WATKINS the key figure in their attack.
The approach taken by Unai Emery's side has led to them averaging 7.2 corners taken per away game, and there's every reason to believe they can go near that marker again given the opposition.
Only three sides see more tackles per home game than Everton this season - JAMES GARNER has had at least four successful in three of his last five league contests at Goodison Park.
Team news
Sean Dyche will continue to be without Dwight McNeil and Ashley Young through injury, while Idrissa Gueye is with the Senegal squad at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Abdoulaye Doucouré has reportedly been in training as he continues his comeback from a hamstring problem that has kept him on the sidelines for a few weeks.
Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is available after his red card against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup was overturned.
For the visitors, Emi Buendia, Lucas Digne and Tyrone Mings all remain out, while Youri Tielemans and Pau Torres are unlikely to be involved.
Bertrand Traoré has been called up to the Burkina Faso squad for AFCON, although he has barely featured for Villa this season.
Predicted line-ups
Everton XI: Pickford; Patterson, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Harrison, Garner, Gomes, Onana, McNeil; Calvert-Lewin.
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Lenglet, Moreno; McGinn, Luiz; Bailey, Diaby, Ramsey; Watkins.
Match facts
- Everton have lost their last three Premier League home games against Aston Villa, as many as in their previous 19 against them at Goodison Park in the league (W7 D9).
- Everton have lost each of their last three Premier League games; the Toffees haven’t lost four in a row since March 2022 under Frank Lampard, while manager Sean Dyche last did so in April 2022 as Burnley boss.
- Since Everton won 1-0 against a table-topping Arsenal side in February in Sean Dyche’s first game in charge, the Toffees haven’t won any of their nine Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top six of the division (D1 L8), losing their last seven in a row.
- Aston Villa won 85 points in the Premier League in 2023, second only to Manchester City (93). Their 26 league wins last year were the second-most in one year in their league history, only winning more in 1972 (28) when they were playing in the second and third tiers of English football.
- Only Sheffield United (7) have conceded more Premier League goals from corners than Everton (6) this season. They’ve conceded from a corner in each of their last three league games – as many as in their previous 39 matches combined.
- Douglas Luiz’s 89th-minute winning penalty against Burnley in Aston Villa’s last game in 2023 was the seventh Premier League goal this season they’ve scored in the 89th minute or later, the joint-most of any side along with Liverpool. Indeed, three have been scored by Luiz, the joint most by a player along with Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo.
- Unai Emery is currently averaging 2.02 points-per-game in the Premier League with Aston Villa (91 points in 45 games). He is currently the only manager in Premier League history to manage 40+ games with a club and have an average of two or more points-per-game but not to have won the title with that side.
- No player has more Premier League assists this season than Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (8), while only Mohamed Salah (22) and Erling Haaland (18) have more goals and assists combined than the Villa frontman (9 goals, 8 assists). He’s only the fifth different English player with 8+ goals and 8+ assists in his team’s opening 20 games of a season, and first since Harry Kane in 2020-21 (12 goals, 11 assists).
- Since Sean Dyche’s first game in charge of Everton in February 2023, James Tarkowski has blocked more shots (62) than any other player, has made the second-most clearances (174) and third-most headed clearances (98). Indeed, between 2017-18 and Dyche’s last game at Burnley in April 2022, Tarkowski topped all three metrics in the competition (236 blocks, 967 clearances, 571 headed clearances).
Odds correct at 1205 GMT (12/01/24)
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