After a 5/4 winner last Friday night, Jake Osgathorpe is again on duty to preview Everton v Tottenham, with two betting selections highlighted.
Football betting tips: Everton v Tottenham
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (Betfred)
1.75pts Both Teams to Score ‘No’ at 23/20 (BetVictor)
In what is a huge game for both of these teams on Friday night, don’t be surprised to see little goal-mouth action.
I did a deep dive into both Everton and Tottenham’s underlying numbers this season earlier in the week, with the conclusion being that neither are performing at a level that suggests they can finish in the top six, Everton especially.
The Toffees have been the sixth worst team in the Premier League since late October based on expected points, with their tactics at times baffling.
Lack of attacking intent costing Everton
After starting the season on a tear from an attacking standpoint, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and James Rodriguez in particular off to flying starts, Carlo Ancelotti’s side soon reverted to a defence first approach.
They had immediate success when doing that, beating Chelsea, Leicester, Arsenal and Sheffield United back-to-back, and that set-up has been persisted with, and has contributed to Everton’s downfall.
Since the first Merseyside derby of the season in October, Ancelotti’s side have averaged just 1.16 expected goals for (xGF) per game, which is better than only Sheffield United, Crystal Palace, West Brom, Burnley and Southampton over that period.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Tottenham in disarray
After a few promising results back-to-back, Spurs have won just one of four, showcasing some serious defensive vulnerabilities while seeing their own attacking process dip.
Newcastle racked up nearly 4.0 xG against Jose Mourinho’s side, before Manchester United put up 2.03 xG against them last weekend in a thoroughly deserved defeat, and all of a sudden it is looking likely that Spurs could miss out on European football all together.
There are issues on and off the pitch, with Mourinho now constantly digging out players in post-match press conferences.
Paul Pogba has recently launched an attack on Jose Mourinho's man-management style from his time at Manchester United, and it appears the same thing is happening at Spurs.
How far they have fallen since sitting top of the league table through nearly a third of the season.
Since then, they have collected the 11th most points and performed like the 11th best team in the league, averaging 1.39 xGF per game – down on the previous 12 game average of 1.83.
Goals could be in short supply
Given the magnitude of this game, the fact that the losers chances of a top six finish would be all-but over, and the relative form of both teams and their struggling attacks, I think we could be in for a low-scoring encounter.
Everton have huge injury concerns in attack too, so I expect a similar approach and performance to what we witnessed on Monday night when drawing 0-0 with Brighton.
They will attempt to stifle Spurs’s underwhelming attack, and so I am surprised to see UNDER 2.5 GOALS as the outsider in that market.
Also, given Everton’s attacking issues in particular, I was also shocked to see BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ as odds against.
This bet has landed in five of Everton’s last seven league games, and in seven of Tottenham’s last 12 in the league, so despite defensive question marks surrounding the visitors, I think that’s worth chancing.
Everton v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (Betfred)
- 1.75pts Both Teams to Score ‘No’ at 23/20 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Everton 0-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1415 BST (15/04/21)
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