Sky Bet Championship strugglers Sheffield Wednesday visit Everton, sitting sixth in the Premier League, in the FA Cup on Sunday evening. Michael Beardmore has best bets and a preview.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Under 2.5 goals in Everton v Sheff Wed at 11/8
1pt Everton win and under 2.5 goals at 3/1
0.5pt e.w. Michael Keane to score first at 20/1 (paying 1/3 odds 1-98 places)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Everton v Sheff Wed
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 4/11 | Draw 19/5 | Away 7/1
Everton come into an FA Cup fourth-round tie against Sheffield Wednesday on the back of 12 days off after the postponement of their Premier League game at Aston Villa.
Whether that factors into Carlo Ancelotti’s team selection remains to be seen but this is a golden opportunity for anything close to a strong Toffees side to move into the FA Cup’s last 16.
In any other recent season, this would be a competition Everton might target but their fine league form has put them just two points off a Champions League spot at the halfway stage with a game or two in hand on every team above them.
The Owls, meanwhile, have had an even longer break – a coronavirus outbreak in their camp meaning they have not played since winning 2-0 at Exeter in the third round on January 9.
That was their third straight win under caretaker boss Neil Thompson but the six-point penalty they incurred for financial irregularities keeps them rooted in the Sky Bet Championship relegation zone.
Everton struggled to overcome another lowly second-tier South Yorkshire side in round three, needing extra time to beat Rotherham, and I don’t think Wednesday will roll over either.
The Owls are in a false position in the Championship, not just down to their six-point deduction but the fact they lose so many tight games – six of their 10 league defeats have been by one goal.
A team that concedes only a goal per game – 23 in 23 – should not be in trouble but it’s their lack of cutting edge at the other end of the pitch (a joint league low 15 goals) that’s the issue.
What's important here is that they keep games tight – 22 of Wednesday’s 27 matches this season have featured two goals or fewer.
Seven of Everton’s past 10 – they started off on fire this season but goals have dried up since – can also be put in that bracket, so under 2.5 goals at 11/8 stands out with Sky Bet when it’s virtually evens with most other firms.
For extra value, it’s worth adding on an Everton win which boosts the price to 3/1 – the Toffees’ quality should edge this but they have scored more than twice in a game only once in their past 15. A 1-0 or 2-0 win would seem the likeliest scoreline.
As most Championship sides would do when visiting a top-flight side, I expect Wednesday – particularly given their decent defensive record – to sit back and attempt to frustrate their hosts.
It could well take a set-piece to break the deadlock at Goodison and no Premier League side has scored more than Everton’s nine from those scenarios this season.
Michael Keane regularly pops up with a goal (three this season already) – so much so that some firms have the England centre-half as low as 8/1 to open the scoring.
That makes the 20/1 offered by bet365 – which we can take to 1/3 each way terms – look mightily inviting.
Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Sheffield Wednesday (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Everton v Sheff Wed best bets
Opta facts
- This will be the 20th FA Cup match (including replays) between Everton and Sheffield Wednesday, the third most played match in the competition's history. Everton have progressed from the last five ties, most recently a fourth round meeting in 1989-90.
- In all competitions, Sheffield Wednesday have lost just one of their last nine away games against Everton (W5 D3), though this is their first visit since a 1-1 draw in the Premier League in March 2000.
- Everton are looking to reach the FA Cup fifth round for the first time since 2015-16; the Toffees have progressed from 11 of their last 12 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division.
- Sheffield Wednesday have been eliminated from 16 of their last 17 FA Cup ties against Premier League opponents, with the exception being a 1-0 win at Brighton last season.
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (22/01/21)
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