The Premier League weekend kicks off with Everton welcoming Newcastle and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Everton (-2 handicap) to beat Newcastle at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Everton v Newcastle
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 1/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 11/2
Newcastle's miserable season continued with a home defeat to Leeds on Tuesday and other results hardly went their way in the 24 hours that followed. Just six points now separates them and Fulham in the relegation zone - a run of nine games without victory, two points from a possible 27, have played a significant part.
I jokingly put up a screenshot on Twitter of a government petition to ban Newcastle games from being on TV a couple of weeks ago but there is now a case for this to become a rule. They're dull, lack an interest in defending and it's testament to how good Marcelo Bielsa is in the Premier League that his Leeds team actually made a game involving the Magpies quite entertaining.
There is an argument going around that Newcastle fans are somehow wrong for demanding more and cling on to the Rafa Benitez days too much but they have every right to voice their concerns with this team. This run has thrown them back into the relegation battle and if Fulham are to close the gap, Newcastle seem the most vulnerable to drop into the bottom-three.
The second-half could be seen as a positive in the loss to Leeds but they were helped massively by their opponent giving away the ball and being generally careless in possession. Even with that, the second-half score was still 1-1 and they failed to capitalise on a team who couldn't find their flow later in the game. They could have quite easily been 3-0 down at the break.
While Everton haven't been sweeping teams aside on a regular basis this season, they have been winning and a contest against an out-of-form Newcastle side presents the opportunity for another three points and the potential to boost the goal difference a little.
We witnessed the Toffees put in a strong defensive performance in their 1-1 draw with Leicester in midweek but this is the first time they've been presented with an opportunity to unleash their attacking potential in the Premier League in recent weeks. 2021 has given them games against West Ham and Leicester with an away trip to Wolves in between.
Four of Newcastle's five league games in 2021 have seen them concede two while the other was a 1-0 loss away at Sheffield United, a team who had gone without a Premier League victory for the whole season before that Bramall Lane meeting. Even then, the Blades' xG stood at a much higher 2.13.
A home win is 1/2, while the -1 handicap puts Everton at a best price of 13/8. That is decent enough given Newcastle's recent record, but it's worth gambling on a more comfortable Toffees win and taking the 9/2 (Sky Bet) on Everton with a -2 handicap.
It's an opportunity to revert to a forward three for the hosts with Richarlison, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and James Rodriguez all available for selection. Abdoulaye Doucoure is back from suspension in midfield while Lucas Digne got through the full 90 last time out. With the odds available, it's worth siding with Everton to punish an out-of-form Newcastle side who are also missing numbers in defence.
Score prediction: Everton 3-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Everton v Newcastle best bets
Odds correct at 1220 GMT (28/01/21)
Opta facts
- Everton have lost one of their last 16 home Premier League matches against Newcastle (W10 D5), a 1-0 defeat in September 2010.
- Newcastle United haven’t recorded a Premier League double over Everton since the 2001-02 season under Bobby Robson, winning 3-1 away and 6-2 at home that season.
- Last season’s Premier League meeting between Everton and Newcastle at Goodison Park saw Florian Lejeune score two goals in the 90th minute to earn the Magpies a 2-2 draw, the first instance of a player scoring twice in the last minute of an away top-flight match since April 2001 – Gustavo Poyet for Chelsea vs Derby County.
- Everton have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games (W5 D2), going down 0-1 against West Ham on New Year’s Day.
- Newcastle have lost their last five Premier League away games, failing to score in any of the last four. They last lost six in a row in April 2016 (a run of 9), while they last lost five in a row without scoring in May 2015 – both runs included 0-3 defeats at Everton.
- No Premier League side is on a longer current run without a win than Newcastle (9), while the Magpies’ run of five consecutive defeats in the competition is also the current longest in the division.
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