Football betting tips: Everton v Manchester City
1pt Everton or Draw at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Everton v Manchester City
- 20:15 GMT on Amazon Prime Video
- Match odds: Home 17/2 | Draw 4/1 | Away 1/3
Everton undoubtedly felt the absence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin against Fulham on Sunday, and Carlo Ancelotti has confirmed that the Toffees will again be without their top scorer as they welcome Manchester City to Goodison.
That is a big blow, but it could pave the way for Josh King to make his first start for the club.
King’s omission against Fulham didn’t go down well amongst the Everton faithful, with a front three of Gylfi Sigurdsson, James Rodriguez and Richarlison struggling to create any real chances against the struggling West London club, Ancelotti’s side going down 2-0.
The defeat to Fulham took a bit of the sheen off Everton’s season so far, but the Toffees are still just six points outside the top four with two games in hand, and prior to that loss, Everton hadn’t been beaten for three matches, beating Leeds 2-1, securing a dramatic 3-3 draw against Manchester United, and beating Tottenham 5-4 after extra time to advance to the quarter finals of the FA Cup.
The Toffees are undoubtedly inconsistent, but they are still enjoying a good first full season under Ancelotti, and it would be beneficial not to underestimate them in this fixture, particularly when their form against the current top four reads LWWDD.
Manchester City continued their ridiculous run of successive wins with a dominant 3-0 victory over Tottenham at the weekend, taking their tally to 16 straight victories, and again it was Ilkay Gundogan who was at the heart of everything good, winning the penalty that Rodri dispatched to open the scoring, before adding two goals of his own in the second half.
City are probably the only team in the world who can lose Sergio Aguero and Kevin De Bruyne and actually improve.
The league now looks a formality for Pep Guardiola’s men, seven points clear of their nearest pursuers and with a game in hand, but it is easy to forget how quickly these things shift in football. After all, it was only at the turn of the year that Liverpool led the pack, with City languishing in eighth, some seven points off the top of the pile.
A quick look at the outright betting for the Premier League shows us how dramatically these things can change, with City touching as big as 5/2 for the title back in December, while Liverpool were as short as 8/11.
This is not a piece on why Manchester City will not win the league, in fact it is hugely likely that the Citizens will deliver Guardiola a third Premier League title this term, but it goes to show that, despite their current purple patch, the team from the blue side of Manchester are not unstoppable, and the likelihood is that sooner or later they will succumb to a defeat.
Many people will be reading this preview and shaking their heads in disagreement, and possibly even bewilderment, wondering how anyone could possibly tip against Manchester City, and while that is a valid opinion in some respects, the essence of value betting is not tipping up the most likely outcome, but tipping the outcome that has a larger probability of happening than the odds suggest.
If this were a case of predicting the most likely outcome, then for sure Manchester City would be the selection, but do the odds accurately reflect their chances of victory? Would Pep’s side really win this match 74 times out of 100, as their current price implies they would?
Some people may say so, but 2/7 feels like a very short price against a team that possess the kind of individual quality that Everton do, not to mention the fact that they have a manager, in Ancelotti, who can certainly mix it with the best.
In fact, Ancelotti is one of the only managers in the world to have beaten Guardiola more times than he has lost to the Spaniard, the record currently standing at 2-1 in the Italian’s favour.
Manchester City are in top form at present, but 9/4 about EVERTON OR DRAW looks far too big.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Everton v Manchester City best bets
- Everton or Draw at 9/4 with Sky Bet
Posted at 1600 GMT on 16/02/21
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