The Merseyside derby takes centre stage on Saturday, with winless Everton hosting Liverpool. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both Teams to Score at 10/11 (Betfred)
1.5pts Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 5/4 (Betfred)
0.5pt Darwin Nunez to score anytime and be carded at 9.7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
The Merseyside derby is usually a fiery match, and usually results in a win for Liverpool.
I suspect that this edition will follow a similar pattern, though given the way both have started the new campaign, we may see a more competitive match than in previous meetings.
Everton are still winless, but there are signs of life for Frank Lampard's side, particularly in attack, while Liverpool haven't yet hit their stride as we have seen in recent seasons.
All of that means that the Blue half of Merseyside will be fancying their chances of causing an upset, and while I think that's unlikely, I think they will get on the scoresheet, meaning BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is the headline selection.
It's a bet that has landed in eight of these two sides combined 10 Premier League games up to this point.
Everton have remained a shambles defensively through five league matches, allowing 1.85 xGA per game, so a strong Liverpool attack should breach them a few times, but their attacking output has seen an uptick.
Despite playing without a recognised striker, forced into playing a more fluid forward line, the Toffees have been able to rack up a decent xGF average over their opening contests.
Lampard's side have generated 1.44 xGF per game, which is quite considerably up on last season's effort under the head coach (1.08).
Couple that with the fact that Jurgen Klopp's men haven't yet looked super secure defensively, shipping six times and keeping just one clean sheet in five games, and I like the chances of Everton hitting the net.
Liverpool, for all of their issues defensively, continue to look a real force in attack, averaging 2.41 xGF per game, and they welcome Darwin Nunez back from his ban which adds more firepower to the Reds attack.
I like the price of DARWIN NUNEZ TO SCORE ANYTIME in this game, with the Uruguayan highlighting just how good he is at getting into good scoring positions despite his limited game time this season.
Despite the form of Roberto Firmino, we could see Nunez start this weekend due to the congested fixture list and the fact that a regularly-injured Firmino may need a rest.
Even if he is a substitute, I still fancy him to get on the end of a few chances after coming on, with the big forward getting on the end of 2.30 xG in just 106 Premier League minutes this season - including four non-penalty big chances.
He has a knack of being in the right place at the right time, and will get a couple of decent scoring opportunities on Saturday against a vulnerable Everton defence.
His best price of 5/4 looks huge.
A small and speculative third selection is tentatively put forward involving the Uruguayan, with DARWIN NUNEZ TO SCORE AND BE CARDED worth some shrapnel.
The case for him scoring has already been made, and he clearly is a hot head who could be even more fired up for this derby.
We also have the chance of Nunez scoring and taking his top off just as he did in the Community Shield, but this is a player who is very physical anyway in his approach to the game who will be out to ruffle a few feathers with his awkward physique and stature.
It is a longer shot, but we are talking about a player who was booked in six of 28 league games in Portugal last season and who isn't shy in putting himself about.
Everton v Liverpool best bets and preview
- 2pts Both Teams to Score at 10/11 (Betfred)
- 1.5pts Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 5/4 (Betfred)
- 0.5pt Darwin Nunez to score anytime and be carded at 9.7/1 (Betfair, Paddypower)
Score prediction: Everton 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1715 BST (01/09/22)
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