Everton and Leicester have enjoyed a positive first-half of the campaign and Tom Carnduff picks out a goalscorer for their Goodison Park meeting.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Richarlison to score anytime at 15/4
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Everton v Leicester
- 20:15 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 9/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 6/4
A huge game at the top-end of the Premier League table. Leicester find themselves involved in the title race while Everton sit just two points off the top-four. Currently fourth is rivals Liverpool, and with two games in-hand the Toffees will fancy their chances of overtaking Jurgen Klopp's men.
Leicester have a very strong away record though. Only Manchester United have picked up more points on the road and that will be a concern for an Everton side who sit in the bottom-half of the home standings. They have picked up 13 points from a possible 24 at Goodison Park.
The outright result is one to avoid in this game given how it really could go either way. Two strong teams in good form makes it difficult to side with one, and that is reflected in the prices alongside the Asian Handicap having both at 0 at the time of writing.
Jamie Vardy's absence could be significant over the next couple of weeks. He's fifth in the goalscoring charts with eleven and five assists, level with Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and the likes of Harvey Barnes and James Maddison will have to step up further to continue to provide goals from the attacking midfield area.
That could give Everton the slight advantage here, but with Calvert-Lewin a short 6/4 to score anytime, there is value available by shopping around and taking the 15/4 best price on Toffees forward Richarlison being among the goals. He only has two this season from 12 starts but the statistics highlight how he should have had more.
Richarlison has been having more opportunities than the headline numbers suggest. The issue has been putting the ball into the net, that is reflected in the fact his season xG is 3.53 and his average xG per match is bettered only by Calvert-Lewin.
He is also seeing an average of 1.15 shots on target per match from a total shots rate of 2.67. Again, only Calvert-Lewin has seen more so far this season and the 23-year-old's numbers are a positive when we consider how suspension and injury have disrupted the first-half of the season.
Richarlison's last goal actually came in the first fixture between these two, a 2-0 win for Everton, and that was scored from an effort that, remarkably, carried an effort of 0.02 on the xG charts. So while he has been missing good chances elsewhere, he did make the most of a strike from distance against the Foxes.
We can expect a big second-half of the campaign for Richarlison, starting with this game on Wednesday night. As mentioned before, the outright result is one to avoid here given the 15/4 available on a goal for the Everton forward. However, with the 0 start both ways on the Asian Handicap, Everton represent better value at 9/5.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Everton v Leicester best bets
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (26/01/21)
Opta facts
- Everton have won their last two Premier League games against Leicester, with the Toffees looking to win three league games in a row against the Foxes for the first time since a run of four between 1977 and 1980.
- Leicester City have won only two of their 14 away Premier League games against Everton (D7 L5), losing 2-1 last season.
- Everton are looking to complete a league double over Leicester for only the second time in the last 15 seasons the sides have met, achieving it in 2016/17 when the Foxes were the reigning champions.
- Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has failed to score in any of his last five Premier League games, having led the goalscoring chart following 11 goals in his first 11 appearances this season.
- Leicester’s James Maddison has been directly involved in seven goals in his last eight Premier League appearances (5 goals, 2 assists), one more than in his previous 33 games. Maddison has scored in his last three games and could be only the second Foxes player to score in four in a row, after Jamie Vardy who has done so on four previous occasions.
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