Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Richarlison to score anytime at 3/1
0.5pt Abdoulaye Doucoure to score from outside the area at 50/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Everton v Fulham
- 19:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 17/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 3/1
Everton were a 22/1 selection in our outright FA Cup preview for success in that competition and a thrilling 5-4 win over Tottenham in midweek moved them into the quarter-finals. Carlo Ancelotti's men have enjoyed a great season so far and they remain in the battle for a top-four spot in the Premier League.
Fulham find themselves at the opposite end of the standings. They aren't a bad team but have struggled to get results, you have to go back to the 2-1 win away at Leicester at the end of November for the last time they won a game in 90 minutes in any competition.
Relegation is becoming more and more likely as the weeks progress. Eight points separates them and Burnley in 17th and this isn't exactly a fixture when they are fancied for victory. Everton are slightly unpredictable, but they have shown how they are a strong team and the near enough even money value in the outright market is a decent selection to almost double your money.
However, there is value in shopping around a bit and both relate to Everton goalscorers.
Richarlison was back among the goals with a brace against Spurs last time out, and while he's 18/1 with Sky Bet to do the same here, the 3/1 price available on a goal anytime is well worth taking.
The forward has had a quiet season by his recent standards but you'd back him to finish the campaign strongly. Infogol has Richarlison's Expected Goals rate in the Premier League at 4.37 but he only has two on his tally. He has been underperforming but the showing at Goodison in midweek suggests he is starting to get back to his best.
He is averaging 2.3 shots per game which is only beaten by Dominic Calvert-Lewin (2.7) in this Everton side. Richarlison's issue has been converting that into goals but there should be confidence from the performance in the win over Tottenham.
3/1 is always going to look a tad generous on a player of his quality against a relegation contender at home. His 2019/20 statistics highlight how he can contribute in this area for Everton and we can expect that to be the case in the closing months of the season.
Another player who has found the net recently for the Toffees is Abdoulaye Doucoure, who netted in their comeback 3-3 draw with Manchester United at Old Trafford. He also scored against Fulham earlier in the season, and while both of his goals have come from close range, I'm intrigued by the 50/1 available on a strike from distance here.
The midfielder had two shots against West Ham, both of which came from outside of the area. The same can be said for efforts against Leicester and the game against Manchester United at home. Essentially, while he averages a much lower 0.7 shots per game, we have seen a fair few of these come from range.
Sky Bet have the best anytime goalscorer odds for Doucoure with one across the 90 minutes available at 13/2. However, with some confidence in Richarlison to deliver, it's worth a small stakes player on the huge 50/1 on Doucoure's potential goal coming from outside the area.
Everton look good value for victory here, even with Fulham drawing three of their last four. They were beaten pretty comfortably by Leicester while they failed to earn victory in crucial games against Brighton and West Brom, two teams near them in the table.
We could delve further into the outright markets but the headline 17/20 price is good enough for the return available. However, the best value comes in the goalscorer market and backing Richarlison and Doucoure to be among the scorers for the hosts.
Score prediction: Everton 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Everton v Fulham best bets
Odds correct at 1715 GMT (11/02/21)
Opta facts
- Everton have won all 14 of their home Premier League matches against Fulham, the best 100%-winning record of any team versus an opponent on home soil in Premier League history.
- The home team has won 23 of the 29 Premier League meetings between Everton and Fulham, although the Toffees won 3-2 at Craven Cottage earlier this season.
- Since March 1961, Everton have won 22 consecutive home top-flight matches against Fulham – the longest ever home winning run for a team against an opponent in top-flight history, six longer than any other (Aston Villa v Sheffield United, 16 between 1903-1921).
- Fulham have never won an away league match against Everton in 27 attempts (D4 L23) – in Football League history, the only two teams to play more away games against an opponent without winning are Fulham themselves versus Arsenal and Grimsby Town against Blackburn (both 28 without a win).
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