Unhappy-at-home Everton welcome up-and-down Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday night. Michael Beardmore delves deep to find the best bets.
Football betting tips: Everton v Aston Villa
1pt Mason Holgate to be shown a card at 16/5 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
1pt Matt Targett to be shown a card at 11/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Everton revived their hopes of European football with a win at Arsenal last Friday night – ensuring profit for Sporting Life readers as I tipped them at evens on the double chance at The Emirates.
The Toffees, though, are a team to back on the road – their form at Goodison is more relegation material than top-six worthy, with just one win in nine at home this calendar year.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side have lost to Burnley, Fulham and Newcastle during that time, and were also held by Crystal Palace so even money around a home win, even against fading Aston Villa, seems too much risk for little reward.
How is Jack Grealish's absence affecting Aston Villa?
The visitors, who have dropped to 11th in recent weeks, would surely be hovering around the top eight like Everton had they not been missing talismanic playmaker Jack Grealish for several weeks.
In the immediate weeks following his injury, Villa could not buy a goal but have rediscovered their scoring boots in April, only for their previously-watertight defence to begin springing leaks.
Some of that has been down to the quality of opposition – Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester City, for example – but conceding two at home to West Bromwich Albion last weekend will have concerned Dean Smith.
That could lead them to tighten up at Goodison and Everton have hardly been prolific recently, netting just seven times in their past nine games – under 2.5 goals is available at a shade of odds-on but Villa’s defensive dip is steering me away.
The uncertainty about goals – this could just as easily finish 0-0 as 2-2 – leads me away from the outright outcome and scoring markets in this one.
The better value appears to be in the card markets, with both teams among the top eight in the ‘Unfair Play’ standings, racking up close to an average of two cards per game this season.
Considering that Villa love a counter-attack and have a host of players with pace – Anwar El Ghazi, Trezeguet, Bertrand Traore, Ollie Watkins – the 16/5 Sky Bet and William Hill offer on Everton's MASON HOLGATE TO BE SHOWN A CARD appeals.
Given the defender has accumulated eight yellow cards in 22 Premier League matches this season (one every 2.75 games) to top the Toffees' ill-discipline standings, I was expecting Holgate to be around 5/2 to enter the referee’s notebook so 16/5 offers a bite of value in a game where it’s tough to find.
Villa, meanwhile, have five players who have racked up half a dozen or more cards – and with Grealish out, it’s a choice between midfielders Douglas Luiz and John McGinn and full-backs Matty Cash and Matt Targett.
In the betting, TARGETT TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 11/2 is easily the outsider of the four but with seven bookings in 32 games this season I’m struggling to understand why. Luiz has the same tally, in admittedly four matches fewer, but is half the price at 11/4.
As a full-back prone to lunge in, that 11/2 on Targett is as good a price as you'll find in this unpredictable encounter.
Everton v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- Mason Holgate to be shown a card at 16/5 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
- Matt Targett to be shown a card at 11/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1800 BST (29/04/21)
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