MNF sees a struggling Everton host Arsenal, and Jake Osgathorpe thinks we could see the hosts get a result.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Both Teams to Score at 5/6 (Betway)
Everton are on an eight game winless run after their derby day thrashing at the hands of Liverpool, a game in which the Toffees were simply blown away by a much better side - something the Reds have done regularly this term (just ask Arsenal).
Nonetheless, the performance highlighted major issues at both ends of the pitch that have been a concern for some time, with plenty to work on for Rafa Benitez's side.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Everton 12/5 | Draw 12/5 | Arsenal 11/10
Over their eight game winless run, which in their defence has included a tough schedule and seen them have plenty of key absentees, the Toffees have been the worst team in the league based on expected points (xPoints).
Their xG process in that time of 1.10 xGF and 2.09 xGA per game shows the size of the task the Spaniard has on his hands, but they have shown signs of life during their last eight games which suggests they could snap out of this slump soon.
Particularly in games against Watford and Wolves, Everton looked very dangerous in attack, while against Brentford and Spurs they have looked more assured defensively.
All that being said, Everton host one of the leagues worse travellers, based on xG, on Monday night.
Away from home Arsenal have the worst expected goal difference (xGD) with -10.5 in the league, the worst defensive process (2.27 xGA per game), while only Norwich are worse in attack on their travels than the Gunners based on xGF.
Only Norwich and Burnley have collected fewer expected points (xPoints) away from home than Arsenal this season.
The key stat that stands out to me is their defensive weaknesses when travelling, and that, coupled with an Everton team who have been porous themselves of late, makes BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE the main selection.
While BTTS hasn't landed in too many Arsenal games this season, I'm happy to chance it this time around given the weaknesses both teams have shown defensively, with the Gunners again conceding plenty of opportunities at Old Trafford.
Both teams need a win here, and both have shown capabilities in attack, so I'm expecting a lively game.
Everton v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score at 5/6 (Betway)
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (03/12/21)
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