We aim to pick out players and cut through the noise to give analytical, objective insight with the latest focus on young Brighton striker Evan Ferguson.
- Age: 18
- Position: Centre-forward
- Club: Brighton
- Country: Rep of Ireland
Having burst onto the scene this season, full of confidence and, from the look of it, full of goals, Evan Ferguson is turning heads both across the Premier League and further afield; even Kylian Mbappe was drawn on the topic of the Irish frontman when their sides faced each other in Euro 2024 qualifying over the recent international break.
But with Tottenham the latest club linked with a move for the 18-year-old amid talks of an improved Seagulls contract, it's time to break down the numbers and analyse whether Ferguson is ready for a role at an elite team.
The newcomer introduced himself at the turn of the year with a trio of goals across four Premier League games - netting against Arsenal, Everton and Leicester - and, though he has not built on that haul in his last six league appearances, Ferguson did mark the scoresheet in the FA Cup, scoring in the fifth round tie with Stoke and twice against Grimsby at the next stage.
Added to that, the striker marked his senior Republic of Ireland debut with a goal in the 3-2 win over Latvia.
In short, his goals have come reasonably consistently and, now at the 10-game mark in his fledgling top-flight career, he is already inside the top ten for goals per 90 on-field minutes (disregarding players with fewer than 10 appearances this campaign) with 0.58.
For comparison, Fulham talisman Aleksandar Mitrovic is behind him on 0.55, as are Darwin Nunez (0.53) and Callum Wilson (0.51).
What's more, his 0.39 assists per 90 minutes put him in the Premier League's 95th percentile.
However, if we look at Ferguson's expected goals, the signs point to a slightly different trend.
While his actual goal figures see him rubbing shoulders with the Premier League's best attacking talent, the fact that his non-penalty xG/90 rating - or the number of goals Ferguson's open-play chances would be expected, on average, to produce per 90 minutes - is down at 0.58 hints that the teenager's stellar scoring reputation could be the result of a brief hot-streak.
Similarly, his npxG/90 combined with xA/90 sees a fall from a real-life total of 0.97 to a predicted 0.48 - a drop of more than half, owing to an xAG/90 measure of just 0.06.
This discrepancy would be expected to even out over time, which may mean the young Irishman's star fades just a little bit. In turn, it may encourage caution among big clubs thinking of swiping the Brighton forward.
