Things appeared to be looking up for Arsenal heading into the north London derby.
They had seen off Everton before a 4-0 rout of PSV Eindhoven in their return to Champions League football midweek.
But the 2-2 result against Tottenham at the Emirates must have felt like a loss, especially after they went ahead twice.
The post-match analysis immediately put the spotlight on Jorginho, who made a mistake which led to the second equaliser. But it also highlighted Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah, who both missed big chances at critical moments which could have put the game to bed.
After seven games, Mikel Arteta’s men are one point adrift of reigning champions Manchester City. After painfully falling short in the title race last season, there is now a conversation to be had about what else is needed to get the Gunners over the line.
Jesus and Nketiah are currently the only recognised strikers at the club, and neither have scored 20+ goals in a Premier League season.
You would have to go back to the 2019/20 season to find the last Arsenal striker who hit that mark.
The challenge facing Arsenal is not just finishing in the top four, it is beating City to the Premier League title. While Pep Guardiola has Erling Haaland leading the line, Arteta has a former City player, one the champions allowed to depart for a direct rival.
Do Arsenal have an issue up front?
There is a case to be made here. Both Jesus and Nketiah feature amongst the top five players with the fewest minutes per big chance missed in the Premier League since the start of last season.
But another player featuring on that list is none other than Haaland. So this can be a chance creation issue instead. Arsenal simply don’t create as many chances for their forwards as City do.
But it is also evident that when they do, their forwards don’t make the most of it.
In terms of expected goals (xG), both Jesus (0.55 xG vs 0.46 goals per 90 minutes) and Nketiah (0.41 xG vs 0.31 goals per 90) underperformed last season. This means that they both bagged less goals than they should have given the quality of chances they had.
Potential striker fits for Arteta's Arsenal
What Arsenal need is a forward who can link up, while also offering better finishing and a physical presence.
The easy option is Brentford striker Ivan Toney, whose contract is close to running out. The Englishman got 20 Premier League goals last season and can be a reliable plan B.
Arsenal would also be getting a Premier League proven striker who is physically dominant and consistently outperforms his xG.
Another option is Victor Boniface of Bayer Leverkusen. The Nigerian is much more than your typical number nine. He offers an aerial and goalscoring threat, while also dropping deep to create opportunities for his teammates.
Boniface is having an incredible start to the Bundesliga season with 6 goals and 2 assists in six matches, but he will need to be consistent throughout the season to make a compelling case for a big-money transfer.
Our pick though, would be Brighton’s Harry Kane-esque forward Evan Ferguson.
According to our player valuation model, the Irishman has an Expected Transfer Value (xTV) of just under €15million. Brighton, savvy as they are, would of course want several multiples of that despite his relative inexperience at the highest level.
So the Seagulls would want a hefty fee, but the Gunners have shown a willingness to break the bank for the right player. We saw this in the summer during their pursuit of Declan Rice.
Standing at 1.88 metres, Ferguson’s physical profile makes him capable of holding the ball up and offering an aerial threat. He can do this while also dropping back into midfield areas to provide an outlet for his team-mates - similar to Jesus.
But most importantly, the 18-year-old’s excellent finishing ability means that he can score from half-chances and from long range to make Arsenal look much more dangerous going forward.
Arteta spent over €50 million on Jesus only last season, but the Brazilian has the versatility to be a creative threat out wide and play alongside the new striker.
Making yet another big-money acquisition would be an incredible show of ambition, but that is just what is needed to take the final step towards building a winning dynasty.
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