After landing a winner at 11/1 on the Bundesliga's final day, Tom Carnduff has a headline 125/1 tip for the relegation play-off on Thursday.
Football betting tips: La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A
1pt Wataru Endo to score anytime in Stuttgart v Hamburg at 8/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Wataru Endo to score 2+ goals in Stuttgart v Hamburg at 125/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Stuttgart v Hamburg
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
Stuttgart had to settle for a draw on the final day of the Bundesliga season, but Schalke's defeat at RB Leipzig meant that they were the ones to suffer automatic relegation.
Hamburg have to bounce back from disappointment of their own as it looked as if they had secured a top two finish, before Heidenheim scored in the 90+3rd and 90+9th minutes to win in remarkable circumstances.
Historically, the play-off favours the top-flight side. Nürnberg (2009), Fortuna Düsseldorf (2013) and Union Berlin (2019) are the only three to win from the 2. Bundesliga in 15 attempts since the format was brought back in 2008.
Rather than take the short prices on a home win, I'm happy to gamble on another big priced goalscorer and WATARU ENDO TO SCORE ANYTIME looks an appealing play at 8/1.
The midfielder netted five across the course of the regular season, averaging 1.29 shots per 90 alongside 0.14 xG. He only failed to register a shot in seven games, although three of those came against Bayern and Dortmund.
Even if they finished 3rd in the division, Hamburg conceded an average of 13.1 shots per 2. Bundesliga game - seven teams saw fewer - with the number jumping up to 14.7 in away contests.
Stuttgart are a side who took a high volume of shots. The 15.4 average they posted in home games was bettered only by Dortmund (16.8) and Bayern (21.5). It sits at 12.8 shots since Sebastian Hoeneß's appointment but they have played Dortmund and Leverkusen in that period.
Two of Endo's five goals have come under Hoeneß too, while he's played the full 90 minutes in every game. With 125/1 available, we'll also have a small play on ENDO TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
He has done this in the past and we can expect the home side to see some good chances to strike, making ENDO the value pick of all players involved in the contest.
Score prediction: Stuttgart 2-1 Hamburg (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 0950 BST (01/06/23)
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