Our tipster Andy Schooler expects few problems for Manchester United in their Europa League semi-final and is backing goals in Lyon.
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Manchester United v Celta Vigo (2005 BST, BT Sport 2; 1st leg: 1-0)
Jose Mourinho summed up Manchester United’s first leg last week when he said: “I'm very pleased with the performance, not so pleased with the result. I think we played enough to have the result closed.”
He probably wasn’t surprised though. United have spent much of the season dominating teams in terms of possession and chance creation only to fail to put their opponents away.
They could be made to regret it on Thursday, although it looks highly unlikely.
Celta offered very little threat in Spain. They’ve basically hit a run of awful form at just the wrong time and it’s now five straight defeats for the LaLiga outfit. They’ve scored just one goal – from the penalty spot – in those games.
What may give them a glimmer of hope is the fact they lost the first leg 1-0 at home when they faced Shakhtar Donetsk in the last 32 of this competition before winning 2-0, after extra time, in Ukraine.
However, February seems a long time ago right now and with United unbeaten in their last 17 European games at Old Trafford, the size of the task ahead is a big one.
Mourinho has had his men fully focused on this one, putting out a much-changed side at Arsenal on Sunday and then seeing his side suffer a 2-0 defeat. The result all but ends their hopes of finishing in the top four in the Premier League.
Essentially Mourinho decided to put all his Champions League eggs into one basket and that’s quite a gamble.
It certainly puts a bit of pressure on those chosen for this one but, as I’ve already suggested, despite United’s many problems this season they should see this one through.
They have been hard to beat – Sunday’s loss was just their third since November – and defensively they have stayed tight no matter how the personnel have come and gone.
They are just 4/7 for the win but given the number of draws they’ve had at Old Trafford this term – plus the fact they don’t actually need to win the game – that isn’t a price I’m rushing to back.
If you want to support United, 8/5 about them doing so without conceding is possibly a better bet given Celta’s toothlessness last week.
Frankly, I’m struggling to find a decent bet although it is at least worth mentioning this stat – 10 of United’s last 11 games (and 14 of their last 16) have come in under 2.5 goals.
That option is around even money in this one which will tempt some but going under in these European second legs is always a bit risky – Celta have an obligation to attack, at least at some point, given their situation in the tie.
I’ll leave that one there for those looking for a bet but personally I think it’s best to keep the powder dry.
Prediction: Man Utd 2-0 Celta Vigo
Opta facts:
o Manchester United are at the semi-final stage of a UEFA Cup/Europa League campaign for the first time; it’s the only major trophy they have never won.
o Manchester United have progressed from all 18 of their European knockout ties in which they won the first leg away from home (including qualifiers).
o The Spanish club’s five-game unbeaten run came to an end in the first leg (W4 D1); United however come into this game on a nine-match unbeaten streak in the Europa League (W7 D2).
o Celta Vigo have progressed from two of their five European knockout ties in which they’ve lost the first leg at home; including in this season’s Europa League round of 32 (v Shakhtar Donetsk).
o Celta Vigo have scored in all six of their matches on the road so far in the 2016/17 Europa League campaign; three of their last four such fixtures have ended in 2-0 wins for the Spanish side.
o Marcus Rashford has scored in back-to-back Europa League appearances for Manchester United; failing to score in nine games in the competition prior to this.
o Sergio Romero has kept more clean sheets than any other goalkeeper in the Europa League this season (7); he’s recording the best save percentage of anyone to make 10+ saves in this Europa League campaign (89%).
Lyon v Ajax (2005 BST, BT Sport 3; 1st leg: 1-4)
I suggested on these pages last week that the first leg of this tie would be worth a watch and it didn’t disappoint.
Unfortunately, I didn’t predict a 4-1 Ajax win – fair play to you if you backed that – but goals did look on the cards and do again eight days on.
The first leg was wide open, end-to-end stuff. Both sides could easily have scored more than they did and in many ways Ajax may be a little disappointed they aren’t further in front.
I’ve no doubt they’d like to be given what happened in the previous round of this competition. On that occasion, they led Schalke 2-0 after the home leg – a match they arguably dominated more than last week’s – but then found themselves staring at defeat when their German opponents went 3-0 up during extra time in the second leg.
I’ve rarely seen two such vastly-differing legs of football.
Ajax managed to scrape through that one and while you’d like to think they’ve learned something from that experience, I’d also suggest it will be in the back of their minds as they head south.
The players will certainly be well aware that they’ve been vulnerable on their travels. They’ve won just one of their last six on the road in all competitions, while in the Europa League they’ve failed to win any of their last five.
I’m picking a few holes here in a team who were pretty impressive last week but I’m not convinced Lyon are totally out of this and what I am sure about is they will give it a proper go.
Unlike Ajax, who will try to win the Dutch title at the weekend, this game is all Lyon have left this season.
Fourth in Ligue 1, they have no chance of claiming Champions League football via their domestic competition so what lies ahead doesn’t matter. With that in mind, 31-goal striker Alexandre Lacazette will surely start having been deemed only fit enough for the bench in the first leg, while Corentin Tolisso, rested at the weekend with a niggle, will likely be risked. The pair have linked up superbly this season and will be key to any Lyon revival.
The attack is very much Lyon’s strength, something highlighted by Les Gones’ shambolic defending in Amsterdam.
It is that defence which could turn out to be the weak link again here and ultimately cost Lyon a place in the final.
Still they will go for it at the other end in the hope that just maybe they can pull off the comeback.
They’ll undoubtedly leave some gaps further back and the likelihood is that Ajax do take advantage at some point. But even if they do, it’s hard to see Lyon shutting up shop – as already pointed out they have nothing to save themselves for.
With this in mind and judging by how the sides went toe-to-toe in the first leg, going big on goals looks worth serious consideration.
The bookies are clued up – over 2.5 is just 2/5 – but I’m going to take a punt on a longer shot by backing over 5.5 at 5/1.
This was close to coming in last week and has already occurred in two of Lyon three home matches in the knockout stages of the Europa League.
Yes, circumstances were different when they beat AZ 7-1 and Roma 4-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais but there are good reasons to suggest it could happen again.
Try a bet to small stakes.
Prediction: Lyon 4-2 Ajax
Opta facts:
o The eight previous times a side has scored four or more goals in the first leg of a UEFA Cup/Europa League semi-final, they have always progressed to the final.
o Ajax have failed to win any of their last four non-group stage matches on the road in the Europa League (D1 L3); never losing by more than a single goal in that stretch though.
o Ajax have failed to win any of their last five matches in European competition away in France (D1 L4); never losing by a margin of over two goals however.
o Lyon lost the first leg 4-1 in Amsterdam against Ajax, the French side claimed a 7-1 home victory against Dutch side AZ earlier this season in the second leg of their last-32 tie however.
o Ajax recorded 16 shots on target against Lyon when these sides met in the first leg; four more than any other side has managed in a Europa League match this term.
o Ajax's Bertrand Traoré has been directly involved in four goals across his last four Europa League appearances; three of those goals coming against Lyon in the first leg (two goals and an assist).
Posted at 1550 BST on 10/05/17.
