Manchester United can reward draw backers again on Thursday night when they head to Celta Vigo in the Europa League, says our Andy Schooler.
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Celta Vigo v Manchester United (2005 BST, BT Sport 2)
Manchester United are finally heading into the home straight of a marathon season but with much still to play for, Thursday’s trip to Spain will be no laughing matter.
With the competition also carrying a place at Europe’s top table next season, the Europa League became Jose Mourinho’s top priority a few weeks ago – although frankly he may be a bit surprised that his side remain only one point and one place outside the Champions League qualification places in their domestic league, a fact which is currently muddying the Old Trafford waters.
We know why United are where they are this season. They have simply served up too many draws on home soil in the Premier League, although such a result in this first leg on the road would probably be seen as a good one. Away games against LaLiga opposition are rarely easy affairs.
The good news for United ahead of this one is an ease in their defensive crisis. Chris Smalling, Eric Bailly and Phil Jones all trained on Wednesday which lessens the chance of Michael Carrick having to fill in as a makeshift centre-back.
Paul Pogba is also expected to return, Juan Mata could do likewise and Marouane Fellaini’s ban only applies to domestic matches.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic remains the big miss – he’s the only United player to have consistently found the target this term, and their failure to take chances has been the main reason for many of those draws and why they are currently only fifth in the Premier League.
Here, they will again turn to Marcus Rashford in search of goals, while Mourinho will also be hoping Henrikh Mkhitaryan (pictured) will continue to feast in the Europa League which has brought him five goals in his last six appearances.
Further back, United will hope to be able to field a defence capable of dealing with Celta’s small man in the box, Iago Aspas, the former Liverpool striker who flopped at Anfield but is making a good job of resurrecting his career in his homeland. Aspas has bagged 17 goals in 29 LaLiga games this season and has also been a regular threat in this competition.
Attacking midfielder Sisto is another worth keeping an eye on. He was highly impressive against Genk in the last round, scoring in both legs, and his runs from deep make him a potential play at 21/5 in the anytime goalscorer market.
Celta have been strong at home in Europe this season, winning four and drawing one of their last five, but this game may be coming at the wrong time for them.
They’ve won just twice in their last eight, losing three in a row since their quarter-final success.
That said, the focus has been firmly on this game since Genk were dispatched. Celta sit in mid-table in LaLiga and their domestic campaign has been effectively over for weeks.
They should be up for this and in Aspas and Sisto they certainly have players capable of giving United something to think about.
United start as favourites in the win-draw-win market, but it is the stalemate which makes most appeal to me.
Neither of these sides is flying along right now and the draw is a result which could arguably suit both.
An away draw has been good enough for United in the last two rounds, against Rostov and Anderlecht. They’ve duly got the job done at Old Trafford in the second leg and I can envisage a repeat in this tie.
The Red Devils have drawn eight of their last 14 and have been beaten just twice in their last 40 games – a run stretching back to November.
United’s durability has been there for all to see and with Celta struggling for form, a fairly dreary opening leg would not be a surprise.
The hosts, I suspect, would happily settle for a goalless draw, although they’ve struggled to keep sides out – they’ve kept only one clean sheet in six Europa games at Balaidos, while in all competitions they’ve conceded in each of their last eight at home.
With United regularly failing to convince, it’s the draw for me in this one with 1-1 regarded as the most likely scoreline.
With an away goal in the bank, even the grumpy Mourinho would surely enjoy a tasty Rioja post-match were that scenario to unfold.
Prediction: Celta Vigo 1-1 Man Utd
Opta facts:
o Manchester United have never reached the semi-final stage of a UEFA Cup/Europa League campaign before; it’s the only major trophy they have never won.
o Celta Vigo are also in their maiden UEFA Cup/Europa League semi-final, they had been eliminated at the quarter-final stage three times previously.
o The Spanish club are unbeaten in five Europa matches ahead of this contest (W4 D1) whilst United come into this game on an eight-match unbeaten streak (W6 D2).
o The Red Devils have failed to win any of the last six times they’ve faced Spanish opposition beyond the group stages in European competition (D1 L5).
o Celta Vigo have lost their last three European matches against English sides, their last such victory coming against Aston Villa in 2000.
o Celta Vigo have recorded eight goals from outside the penalty area this season; two more than any other side, this is 42% of their total goals, the highest ratio of any side to score 10+ goals.
o Iago Aspas has been directly involved in three goals across his last four home Europa League appearances for Celta Vigo (2 goals, 1 assist).
o Henrikh Mkhitaryan has scored in five of his last six Europa League games for Manchester United.
Posted at 1445 BST on 03/05/17.
