Our tipster Andy Schooler previews Wednesday's Europa League semi-final between Ajax and Lyon and has a 33/1 shot for you.
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Ajax v Lyon (1745 BST, BT Sport 3)
The much-maligned Europa League is down to its last four and for those who usually give it a wide berth, Wednesday’s semi-final should be worth a watch.
Acting as an hors d'oeuvre to the Monaco v Juventus Champions League semi-final at 1945 - it has been brought forward as its original Thursday date clashes with a day of remembrance in the Netherlands – it’s easy to think goals will be forthcoming.
Both sides are at their best going forward and while Lyon are the bookies’ favourites to progress to the Stockholm final later this month, it would be foolish to write off an Ajax side who have won all six of their home Europa League games this season (five of them without conceding).
It was hard not to be impressed by Ajax’s last match at the Amsterdam ArenA in this competition. They dominated Schalke and could easily have won by more than the 2-0 margin which in the end proved a fragile lead before they scraped through the second leg after extra time.
That hints at where their frailties lie and you’d imagine Lyon would sign up to a 2-1 first-leg loss now with the home leg to come.
Home midfielder Davy Klaasen, who scored both goals in that Schalke win, has been heavily linked with a move to the Premier League and is clearly one to watch but the Ajax ‘total football’ model remains and they are a team who look very comfortable on the ball at all times with virtually every member capable of playing a pass.
Kasper Dolberg is the top scorer but in keeping with the deep-rooted Ajax style much of their threat comes from further back with Lasse Schone and Amin Younes others to have caught the eye during their Europa run.
With Lyon having lost three of their six away games in Europe this season, Ajax’s strong home record could well continue here.
Yet I’m a little wary for a few reasons, primarily the loss of both Joel Veltman and Nick Viergever from the defence through suspension.
Also, last time out they were beaten by PSV Eindhoven, a result which virtually ended their hopes of winning the Dutch league, which in itself could leave scars.
They will look to put that disappointment behind them but the fact that they have now conceded in seven of their last eight (the Schalke game being the exception) highlights they aren’t watertight right now.
Lyon have the players to take advantage. Alexandre Lacazette is the best-known in their attack (although he is rated a doubt for this one) but Corentin Tolisso is a player who really makes them tick and is regularly a focal point in their forward play with his drifting runs and ability to supply a final pass.
He’s now bagged 13 goals this season and with three in his last five, looks worth a shot at 15/4 in the anytime scorer market given Ajax’s defence is going to be something of a makeshift one.
Only St Etienne have kept out Lyon in their last 28 games and Lyon can be expected to find the target in this one, even if they are missing Lacazette (Nabil Fekir is no slouch if he plays as the central striker).
The French side’s problem is that they have been too open at the back, losing recent Europa games away to Beskitas and Roma.
Both teams to score at 4/7 looks one for anyone happy enough to take a short price but for me I’ll side with the impressive Tolisso, a player whose form this season recently earned him his first France cap.
Given the potential issues facing Ajax at the back, as well as the anytime price, I’m also going to back Tolisso (pictured) at 33/1 to score twice. That's a surprising price to me.
A brace is something he’s managed twice for his club in 42 games this season and while the level of opposition is clearly rising here, those key absentees for Ajax must given a side which prides itself on its attacking play more than a chance of getting among the goals.
Prediction: Ajax 2-2 Lyon
Opta facts:
o Ajax have never lost to Lyon; winning both group stage matches against them during the 2002/03 Champions League campaign and recording two draws against the French side in the 2011/12 Champions League group stage.
o Lyon have reached their third major European semi-final, with each being in a different competition (1964 Cup Winners Cup, 2010 Champions League).
o This is Ajax’s second appearance in a UEFA Cup/Europa League semi-final; they went on to win 1991/92 UEFA Cup the last time they reached this stage in the competition.
o Since losing those two group games against Ajax in the 2002/03 Champions League campaign, Lyon have gone eight matches unbeaten in European competition against Dutch sides (W4 D4); including their two wins in this season’s Round of 32 tie versus AZ (11-2 on aggregate).
o Ajax are currently enjoying an 11-game unbeaten run in the Europa League proper at home (W8 D3).
o Ajax have kept clean sheets in five of their six Europa League matches to have taken place at home this season; recording one in each of their last four at the Amsterdam Arena.
o Lyon come into this match having lost four times in their last five away from home in the Europa League; none of those fixtures have been group stage games.
o Six of the last eight goals conceded by Lyon in the Europa League have come in the first half; five of the last six they’ve let in have come from set-pieces.
o Alexandre Lacazette has scored three times in three Europa League appearances on the road this season for Lyon. Joel Veltman was sent off in Ajax’s most recent Europa League outing; no team has seen more reds this term than the Dutch club (3).
Posted at 1650 BST on 02/05/17.
