The new Europa League season gets under way today. Jake Osgathorpe previews the tournament, selecting his best outright bets.
Football betting tips: Europa League outright
2.5pts e.w. Manchester United to win the Europa League at 8/1 (bet365 1/2 1,2)
1.5pts e.w. Roma to win the Europa League at 16/1 (Betfred 1/2 1,2)
1pt e.w. Monaco to win the Europa League at 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/2 1,2)
Last season's Europa League was won by Eintracht Frankfurt, who beat Rangers on penalties.
As is common knowledge, they don't immediately defend their title, instead gaining entry into pot 1 of the Champions League which is a major carrot for many teams who perhaps are fading in their domestic battle to secure top-tier European football.
One tends to supersede the other the later we go into the season. That was the case with the eventual winners Frankfurt, who pretty much gave up domestically - finishing 11th in the Bundesliga - to focus solely on European commitments.
Villarreal, winners in 2020/21 did similar, dropping from fifth to seventh in La Liga as they sacrificed league games in the hope of giving them an edge in Europe.
That is one mine in this huge minefield that is the Europa League outright. The other two are big ones, especially the first.
Seven of the last 20 Europa League finalists have started the season in the Champions League group stage. Victory in the group stage gives safe passage to the last 16 while finishing second means you must play in a knockout round play-off.
Europa League 22/23 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- 5/1 - Arsenal
- 6/1 - Manchester United
- 14/1 - Roma
- 20/1 - Lazio, Real Sociedad
- 25/1 - Real Betis
- 33/1 - PSV
- 50/1 - Feyenoord, Freiburg, Union Berlin
- 66/1 - Fenerbahce, Monaco, Olympiakos, Rennes, Braga
There really is a lot to break down with a tonne of permutations, but we'll give it a go.
Firstly, I think it's incredibly important to win the group and avoid a potential third-placed Champions League team early on, plus avoiding two extra Thursday night games in an extra crammed season due to the World Cup.
Arsenal (Group A) tick that box, Roma (Group C) may have it tougher than the Gunners with Real Betis in there too but I have them coming out on top, Manchester United should win Group E, Lazio can lead Group F and Monaco should prove too strong in Group H.
In terms of quality, I think we can rule Lazio out. Maurizio Sarri has won this competition with Chelsea, but his side are lacking in many areas, with their performance in the UEL last season a concern, finishing second in a winnable group.
Also an issue is their underlying process since the start of 21/22, where they have averaged 1.54 xGF and 1.28 xGA per game across Serie A and Europa League matches.
Arsenal are rightly the favourites to lift the trophy. They have looked excellent at the start of the new season and should breeze through a group containing Bodø/Glimt, PSV and FC Zurich.
My concern with them is motivation in the second half of the season. The way in which they are trending suggests that they could well be in a great position to secure Champions League football by the domestic route, meaning expending energy on both fronts could be seen as inefficient and could see them miss out altogether.
If they take this competition seriously throughout, they would absolutely be a bet and the team to beat, however I'm not confident that will be the case.
Make Man Utd the main bet
That leaves three, and all of the remaining three make the staking plan.
MANCHESTER UNITED are priced as second favourites TO WIN THE EUROPA LEAGUE and that is absolutely fair.
The Red Devils are still finding their feet under new coach Erik ten Hag, and while the signs are positive, I don't see them as trending as positively as Arsenal, and thus could be nowhere near the top four race come January 2023.
That could mean the proverbial eggs go into the Europa League basket as they search for silverware and a route into the Champions League.
United have a deep squad at their disposal so can deal with the games coming thick and fast, while group-wise they have a positive draw against Sheriff Tiraspol, Omonia Nicosia and Real Sociedad.
The Spaniards could be awkward, but over the six group games United should finish top.
All of this coupled with their recent record in this competition means they are a bet. Despite it being the continent's secondary competition, every time United have played in the UEL they have taken it very seriously.
They lifted the trophy in 2016/17, reached the semi-final in 19/20 when beaten by eventual winners Sevilla, and were beaten finalists in 20/21 the last time they were in the competition.
In a season of development for the club, players and coach, the Europa League could be their most realistic opportunity to win silverware and qualify for the Champions League.
Mourinho's gladiators can go again
ROMA fall into a similar category to Arsenal - a team progressing quickly who could be in domestic contention - but their manager sways me towards them at a tasty looking price.
Jose Mourinho is a winner. He wants to win every competition he enters and will more often than not play his best team where available.
That was incredibly evident last season when his side won the continent's tertiary competition - the Europa Conference League - so I have no doubts they will be playing to win this competition.
The team is stronger this season, and their underlying data looks incredibly promising at this early stage.
Add that to a team who won a European competition last season and a manager who is excellent in knockout competitions (winning this competition in 16/17) and the Italians could be a live runner.
Their group shouldn't be too much of an issue with HJK Helsinki and Ludogorets likely to be dismissed with ease, and Real Betis expected to finish a competitive second.
It is a realistic proposition that, after failing to win a recognised European trophy in their club history, Roma win two in two seasons. The only thing that does concern me is if they continue to improve and impress to the point that they find themselves in the race for the title in Italy, in which case we can kiss goodbye to their Europa hopes.
I don't think they are quite at that level yet, and am happy to take the risk that they are a comfortable third/fourth domestically which allows them to be a serious player in the UEL.
Chance Monaco to come of age
Finally, at a whopping price of 100/1, I thought MONACO were worth a poke.
The French side were put up in this column last season, and despite topping a competitive group (Real Sociedad, PSV, Sturm Graz), they were knocked out in the last 16 by Braga.
That didn't come as a massive surprise. Monaco parted company with Niko Kovac in January, replacing him with Philippe Clement, and there were some teething issues.
In their nine league games up to the second leg of their Europa League last 16 tie, Monaco won three, losing three. After they exited Europe they took off.
They had 10 remaining Ligue 1 games and won nine, drawing their final game of the season to end a winning streak.
Their start to this season has been very difficult schedule-wise, but they recently held PSG to a draw to highlight their potential.
While losing highly-rated midfielder Aurelien Tchoumeni to Real Madrid, Monaco have kept the bulk of their team together and added Takumi Minamino and the exciting Breel Embolo among others.
It is a longshot - hence the price - but there could be real value in siding with Monaco this season, especially given their group stage draw which pits them against Crvena Zvezda, Ferencvarosi and Trabzonspor.
Win the group as they did last season, and this team will be a match for anyone in this competition.
Monaco were 40/1 to win this competition last season, so the fact we can get 100/1 this time around for a team in an easier group and a team who are in a better place is just too big of a price jump.
Odds correct as of 1230 (01/09/22)
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