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Europa League final tips: Atalanta vs Bayer Leverkusen best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Europa League final
2pts Florian Wirtz to score or assist at 5/4 (Betfair, Paddys)
1pt Rafael Toloi to be carded at 13/5 (Betfair, Paddys)
*All bets 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 21/1
Florian Wirtz to score or assist
Rafael Toloi to be carded
Bayer Leverkusen most booking points
Bayer Leverkusen are looking to do the extraordinary, something no team has ever done before. They are two games away from going an entire season unbeaten.
They won the Bundesliga title a few weeks ago but closed out the season with successive wins, making them the first German side to go unbeaten in a league campaign, and they have a great chance of completing an unbeaten treble.
Atalanta await in the Europa League final, before they take on Kaiserslautern in the DFB Pokal final on Saturday. This game is definitely the more dangerous, as the Italians have finished the season well.
Seven wins in their last nine with one defeat - which did come in the Coppa Italia final - has seen them reach the final two in the Europa League and also guarantee themselves Champions League football for next season by securing a top five finish in Italy.
These are two attack-minded sides with two incredible coaching minds at the helm, so we should be in for a cracking contest on Wednesday.
What are the best bets?
Well, full disclosure, we have skin in this game already. Having backed Leverkusen to win the tournament before a ball was kicked at 20/1, we will at least collect each-way money but boy would it be nice to see them win it.
The smart play for people on Leverkusen with me is to hedge your bets and back Atalanta. But, given this is a standalone preview, we are going to forget the pre-tournament selections and focus on the match markets.
For me, Leverkusen are probably a touch short to win in 90 minutes, but they have been so reliable that I simply can't oppose them, and while Over 2.5 goals did tempt me at even money, I've found something sweeter in the card markets.
RAFAEL TOLOI TO BE CARDED looks a cracking bet at 13/5.
The Italian has been in and out of the side all season due to some bad injury luck, but has recently returned, and the club captain should start at the right side of a back three on Wednesday.
He has slowly built up his fitness, and played his first 90 minutes in Atalanta's win over Lecce at the weekend, helping his side keep a clean sheet. Toloi was also booked in that game, as he was in his 26 minute cameo in the Coppa Italia defeat.
He's been booked in three of his last five appearances and has collected eight yellows this season, averaging 0.71 cards per 90, so looks overpriced here against a tricky Leverkusen side.
I also really like the look of FLORIAN WIRTZ TO SCORE OR ASSIST at 5/4.
The German has had a stellar campaign under Alonso, scoring 18 times and assisting a further 19 across his 47 appearances. His goal involvement (goals + assist) per 90 average is 1.01, which is pretty incredible, as is his xGI of 0.76.
Anything odds-against looks overpriced.
Team news
Bayer Leverkusen have no injury concerns, meaning Xabi Alonso can field his strongest XI.
Atalanta will be without Saed Kolasinac and Marten de Roon, while Emil Holm is doubtful. Gian Piero Gasperini's main decisions come in forward areas, where he must decide whether to start Ademola Lookman or not.
Predicted line-ups
Bayer Leverkusen: Kovář; Kossonou, Tah (c), Tapsoba; Frimpong, Andrich, Xhaka, Grimaldo; Wirtz, Boniface, Adli
Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Tolói (c), Djimsiti, Hien; Hateboer, Éderson, Pasalic, Ruggeri; Koopmeiners, De Ketelaere; Scamacca
Match facts
- Bayer Leverkusen have faced Atalanta twice in European competition, with the Italian side winning both legs of a 2021-22 UEFA Europa League last 16 tie. Bayer have only faced Internazionale more often while losing every game in major European competition (three defeats in three games).
- This is the eighth major European final between a German side and Italian side and first since the 2010 UEFA Champions League final, won 2-0 by Inter against Bayern Munich. In the UEFA Cup/Europa League, it’s the first since 1997 when FC Schalke 04 were crowned champions over two legs against Inter via a penalty shootout.
- Bayer Leverkusen have reached their third UEFA European final, also featuring in the two-legged 1988 UEFA Cup final against Espanyol (lost 0-3 first leg, won 3-0 second leg, won on pens) and 2002 UEFA Champions League final against Real Madrid (lost 2-1).
- This will be Atalanta’s first ever European final, becoming the 11th different Italian team to reach a final and first to do so for a first time since Lazio in the 1998 UEFA Cup (lost 3-0 to Inter). This will be 60 years and 261 days since their first European game in September 1963, the longest wait for a side to play in their first a European final from their first game, a record which will be eclipsed in one week by Olympiakos (64 years, 259 days – 1959-2024).
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in all 12 UEFA Europa League games this season (W9 D3) and are looking to become the fourth side to win the trophy unbeaten, along with Chelsea in 2018-19, Villarreal in 2020-21 and Eintracht Frankfurt in 2021-22, the latter two of which did so in a penalty shootout in the final.
- Atalanta are looking to become the first Italian side to win the UEFA Europa League, with the trophy only ever being won by sides from Spain, Portugal, England or Germany previously. The last Italian team to win the UEFA Cup was Parma in a 3-0 win over Marseille in 1999.
- Bayer Leverkusen have completed 6,622 passes in this season’s UEFA Europa League, the most by a side in one campaign since Sevilla in 2019-20 (6,971). Their passing accuracy of 89.5% is the second best on record (behind Nice in 2017-18, 90%) while their ratio of 94.3% short passes is the highest by a team in a Europa League season.
- Atalanta have only faced 2.8 shots on target per game in the UEFA Europa League this season, the lowest ratio of any side in the competition this season; their final opponents Bayer Leverkusen have been averaging 7.2 shots on target per game in 2023-24.
- Bayer Leverkusen have had 232 shots in the UEFA Europa League this season, the most by a team in one season since Chelsea in 2018-19 (247). They’ve had 30+ shots in three different matches this season, something that had only been achieved more than once in a season by one team previously (Marseille in 2015-16, twice).
- Six of Bayer Leverkusen’s 31 UEFA Europa League goals this season have been scored in the 90th minute of matches – it’s the most 90th minute goals a side has scored in a single major European season
Odds correct at 1600 BST (16/05/24)
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