Our Andy Schooler previews the pick of Thursday's Europa League action, including Everton taking on Atalanta.
Cologne v Arsenal (1800 GMT, BT Sport 2)
Up against a team which has yet to win in the Bundesliga this season, Arsenal have to be the bet here at 17/10.
Yes, they’ll play another virtual reserve side but the stand-ins have done a fine job thus far, winning three and drawing one in their group. Those results include a 3-1 victory at home in the reverse fixture.
Remember the Gunners have still been able to field plenty of quality, with the likes of Olivier Giroud, Jack Wilshere and Theo Walcott having been the bedrock of this campaign so far.
The latter is set to miss out here but the fit-again Danny Welbeck looks a direct replacement and is another international to slot into what will again be a fairly youthful team.
Following a long tradition of academy excellence, the likes of Reiss Nelson and Ainsley Maitland-Niles have impressed in the games so far though and if Arsenal keep performing to the standards they’ve set in this group then the price is just wrong.
OK, they have already qualified but they know a win here will clinch top spot and a seeding for the last-32 draw.
Cologne are still chasing second spot in the group but their form suggests that isn’t going to happen.
They’ve taken just two points from 12 domestic league games thus far, while it’s one win and three defeats in this Europa group.
Injuries have certainly played a major part with German international left-back Jonas Hector having been out for most of the season so far, while Dominique Heintz (thigh) and Simon Zoller (hamstring) have joined the long-term injury list since the last round of Europa matches.
A host of other niggles are currently causing problems in the squad and with a big game against a fellow bottom-five club, Hertha Berlin, to follow on Sunday there won't be chances taken in this one.
I'm really surprised to see Arsenal at the price they are and they look very worthy of support.
In the sub-markets, Welbeck has potential as a goalscorer. He's a top price of 40/17 to net at any time which looks tempting, especially given he bagged three in six games for the Gunners at the start of the season.
However, right now we don't know for sure that he starts and even if he does, it's unlikely he'll play more than an hour. The first goal at 7/1 maybe a better bet, if indeed he makes Arsene Wenger’s XI.
Everton v Atalanta (2005 GMT, BT Sport 2)
You have to be pretty poor to be knocked out of the Europa League after just four of the six group games but that’s the situation Everton find themselves in.
They managed to collect just a single point from those four matches with their opening match in the competition really showing up their deficiencies. That came in the reverse fixtures when they were totally outclassed and lost 3-0.
The Italians are hardly world beaters, they sit only in mid-table in Serie A, but they are unbeaten in this competition and head to Goodison Park knowing victory will take them into the knockout stages.
Quite what Everton’s motivation is here, you have to wonder.
They have actually taken four points from the last six available in the Premier League, scoring five goals in the process, but they remain in a precarious position and a huge week is coming up with games against Southampton, West Ham and Huddersfield.
A good run over those matches will see the pressure lift at Goodison; a bad one and a season-long relegation fight looms.
Surely David Unsworth will have that in mind ahead of this game, although reports on Merseyside suggest he’ll still play a strong team.
The word ‘strong’ is probably related to the number senior players in Everton’s squad these days but many have no form of which to speak.
Certainly of those who have been playing regularly, at least four will miss out here. Oumar Niasse is not eligible, Morgan Schneiderlin suspended and Mason Holgate injured. Unsworth, meanwhile, has confirmed Phil Jagielka will be rested with those importance league games on the horizon.
Lyon won here three weeks ago and Atalanta can do the same, although 13/10 isn’t as tempting a price as the Arsenal one (see above).
Ahead of the team announcements, I can therefore leave it alone at present, although I wouldn’t go so far as to put people off the away win.
Prediction: Everton 1-2 Atalanta (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best of the rest
Zenit St Petersburg’s home game with whipping boys Vardar (BT Sport Extra, 1800 GMT) immediately catches the eye.
The Macedonians have conceded 17 goals in four group games thus far, losing 5-0 to Zenit on home soil and also 6-0 to Real Sociedad.
Like Everton, they are out of contention in terms of qualifying for the knockout stages and more big defeats could well follow.
The issue for those heading to the handicap markets is that Zenit boss Roberto Mancini, whose side are already in the hat for the last-32 draw, has admitted he'll make changes. This despite the fact they are still battling for top spot with Sociedad.
It's not a huge surprise given Zenit face a tough domestic game against Spartak Moscow on Monday and will likely mean the competition’s top scorer Aleksandr Kokorin gets a night off.
Any player coming into the side in an attacking role will surely fancy his chances against such a porous defence so it might well be worth siding with Russian international Dmitry Poloz.
He has found his chances limited at Zenit of late and he’s usually be found on the bench this season. However, he did net 12 times for Rostov last season, scoring in games against Bayern Munich and PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League.
He's 7/5 to score at any time and 8/1 for a brace – both prices which could tempt me in if he's confirmed in the starting XI.
However, given the lack of certainty, the best bet right now is probably for Poloz to bag the first goal at 11/2. You will get your money back if he’s not on the field when the first goal goes in so there’s an element of a safety net factored in.
Recommended bets
3pts Arsenal to beat Cologne at 17/10
1pt Dmitry Poloz to score the first goal in Zenit v Vardar at 11/2
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Posted at 1730 GMT on 22/11/17.
