Arsenal can cruise into the Europa League knockout stages on Thursday but there's more woe on the cards for Everton.
Lyon v Everton (1800 GMT, BT Sport 2)
When scoring goals is a problem and so is keeping them out, you know you’ve got problems and that’s Everton right now.
This must be the Toffees’ worst team for 15 years and their Premier League position – they sit in the relegation zone - is far from false.
Of course, the situation is far from irreparable. The squad retains plenty of good players but they are without a manager able to shape them into a team. Ronald Koeman certainly couldn't do it and two defeats so far under the caretaker stewardship of David Unsworth have ensured he won’t be getting the gig full time. However, he remains in charge for this game.
Everton really need to win it if they are the stand any realistic chance of staying in the Europa League but it’s hard to make a case for that happening.
At Goodison, they were second best to a youthful, vibrant Lyon side, who showed the sort of qualities Everton have been sadly lacking this term.
The team news suggests the Europa campaign is now effectively over with the final three matches set to be sacrificed as practice games, presumably the next two for the new boss to help mould his team.
Eighteen-year-old defender Morgan Feeney makes the trip but the injured Michael Keane and James McCarthy do not. Leighton Baines and Wayne Rooney are among the others left out.
Rooney’s been pretty much the one man in a blue shirt who has been able to put the ball in the net this season and the hosts look more than capable of preying on a side devoid of confidence and one set to line up unfamiliarly.
On the handicap, Lyon are 11/8 giving up a goal start which looks perfectly fair. With home advantage and the potential to qualify for the knockout stage with two games to spare, I’d expect them to force the pace and try to get the job done as early as possible.
They’ve a derby clash with St Etienne coming up at the weekend which may worry some as clearly there’s the potential for them to ease off, but then even if they do are Everton capable right now of taking advantage?
In the sub-markets, a price of 9/2 (bet365, MarathonBet) catches the eye about teenage Lyon midfielder Houssem Aouar. He helped Lyon run the midfield for large parts of the game a fortnight ago, playing as the left of two central midfielders.
He covers plenty of ground and is as short as 13/8 elsewhere.
Prediction: Lyon 3-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1 Price Boost)
Arsenal v Red Star Belgrade (2005 GMT, BT Sport 2)
Despite having plenty of long-term injuries, Arsenal have still changed virtually their entire XI for their Europa League matches thus far.
And the changes have had no negative impact – the Gunners have won three out of three so far and know another here will guarantee they finish top of the group with two games to spare.
That would be music to Arsene Wenger’s ears so expect him to go with a very similar team to the one which won 1-0 in Belgrade two weeks ago. It will therefore include the likes of Olivier Giroud, Theo Walcott and Jack Wilshere, plus a sprinkling of the latest youngsters to come out of the club’s London Colney academy.
The Serbs put up a decent showing in the reverse fixture but repeating the trick at the Emirates is likely to prove a much tougher task.
Again it is the handicap market making appeal here, with Arsenal (-1) available at even money.
They’ve won three of their five home Premier League games this season by two or more goals, while Cologne were beaten here 3-1 in their only home Europa match thus far.
With so many of this team unlikely to feature at Manchester City on Sunday, there’s no real concern about Arsenal easing up.
What’s also encouraging is the recent admission of Red Star’s coach Vladan Milojevic that his team have been tiring in these Europa games which have proved more taxing than domestic affairs.
I used his exact quote in my preview a couple of weeks ago and his words were profound as Arsenal scored late on to grab their 1-0 win.
Arsenal have actually scored in the last 15 minutes in three of their last five games (and conceded one in that period in another), while Red Star grabbed a late winner themselves in their victory on Sunday.
The 23/25 (MarathonBet) about there being one in that period in this game is therefore tempting.
Another rather odd stat I stumbled across researching this preview is that Red Star keeper Milan Borjan has been booked in three of his last four games.
Sky Bet quote 9/2 about either keeper being carded in this one, a price which would look even more tempting is young stopper Matt Macey starts, as he did against Norwich in the Carabao Cup last week.
I’ll keep things simple though and stick with the hosts to win by at least two clear goals and package them up with Lyon in a double which pays 15/4.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Red Star (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Recommended bets
1pt double Lyon (-1) & Arsenal (-1) at 3.76/1
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Posted at 2045 GMT on 01/11/17.
