Mark Stinchcombe has our Europa League best bets as Tottenham and Celtic try and make the group stages.
Recommended bets
2pts under 2.5 goals in AEK v Wolfsburg at Evens
1pt Sarajevo to score against Celtic at 11/10
1pt Harry Kane to score and Tottenham to win 4/6
1pt 0-0 in AEK v Wolfsburg at 11/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Sarajevo v Celtic
Celtic just about negotiated their way through the previous round as 1/4 favourites as a last-minute winner from substitute Mohamed Elyounoussi saw them defeat Riga 1-0. In truth they deserved to go through having dominated with 71% possession and having 15 shots to the Latvians' four. But against a side set-up in a deep, compact 4-4-2 intent on defending, it was always going to take time.
Sarajevo on the other hand looks a completely different proposition. These two actually met in the Champions League qualifiers last season which Celtic won 3-1 in Bosnia, and then 2-1 back at home in the second leg.
Seeing goals and Sarajevo in Europe go hand in hand as over the last three years they have played 13 matches against opponents ranging from the likes of Atalanta and Celtic to lesser sides such as Connah’s Quay which has seen 42 goals – a rate of 3.23pg.
I think their two matches against last season's Champions League quarter-finalists Atalanta two years ago really encapsulates their kamikaze style. In the first leg in Italy they came back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 before losing the second leg 8-0!
And 2020 looks to be no different with their eight league matches so far seeing 25 goals (3.13pg) with Sarajevo scoring 18 of them.
So for me in this one leg encounter it makes sense to look at goals. Celtic to win and over 2.5 goals is 5/6 yet with over 2.5 goals itself being 8/11, it doesn’t make sense to add the risk of Celtic winning. Shopping around further however, both teams to score at 6/5 looks really good compared to the 8/11 on over 2.5 goals.
Indeed, it could be argued a much bigger priced bet only requires two goals rather than three. And yet shopping even further we find Sarajevo to score is 11/10! So from originally looking at needing three goals for an 8/11 bet, 11/10 for just one goal, albeit from a particular team, looks great value.
As we know Celtic have suffered some shocks over the years in these European qualifiers - defeat to Ferencvaros, Cluj, AEK Athens, Hapoel Be’er Sheva, Lincoln Red Imps, Malmo, Maribor, Legia Warszawa – the list is huge. And the bet here isn’t even to lose, or not to win, it’s just the opposition to score. And since 2018 Celtic have kept just two clean sheets in 12 Europa League away games and clearly Sarajevo know how to score against them.
Tottenham v Maccabi Haifa
Jose Mourinho has already proved how seriously he is taking this competition with strong line-ups in previous rounds, and the resting of key players in Tuesday night's Carabao Cup match with Chelsea further proves it.
After winning 3-1 in Shkendija in the last round despite Harry Kane starting from the bench, they put in a great performance against Newcastle and were so unlucky not to score more, let alone not win. Tottenham absolutely dominated the encounter having 66% possession, 10 corners, 23 shots with 12 on target, and generating an expected goals figure of well over three. Priced at 1/6, they are expected to comfortably beat Israeli side Maccabi Haifa.
Maccabi Haifa have only played seven European qualifiers since 2016 so there isn’t a lot to go on but given we know the gulf in quality throughout the whole qualifying process across the whole of Europe, it should be concerning that they have kept just one clean sheet in games against opposition such as Mura, Zeljeznicar and Kairat.
The closest team they have played in terms of quality to Spurs was Strasbourg, who finished 10th in Ligue 1 and beat Maccabi 3-1. Tottenham are 5/6 to score three goals or more but their schedule is so tight it isn’t worth chancing they score lots of goals at the price, given you would imagine Mourinho’s first task will be to get the game won then rotate if possible with a trip to Man Utd coming on Sunday.
Of their five European goals so far all but one have come after the 70th minute too. And with Spurs already without Heung-Min Son through injury, the onus even more so falls on Harry Kane. And who better to call upon with 30 goals in 35 European starts. He’s 4/6 to score and Tottenham to win, and given Spurs are just 1/6, four times the price looks very generous. After all, who else is going to score?
AEK Athens v Wolfsburg
Excitement levels immediately start heightening when you see under 2.5 goals is not favourite in a football match in Greece involving two evenly matched sides. On this occasion it’s AEK Athens hosting Wolfsburg in the capital.
It seems that ever since the Greek national team showed at Euro 2004 it was possible to defend your way to success, even against the might of the rest of Europe, that it is in the blood of their domestic clubs. And it is no different for AEK Athens.
Finishing third last season, in matches against the rest of the top four, and similar to how they set-up in bigger games likes this, they scored just 12 goals in 12 games - and predictably in the cup final against Olympiacos, failed to find the back of the net in a 1-0 defeat despite trailing since the ninth minute.
Their European exploits have been no different either. Over the past five years they have played 17 Europa League games with 12 of those finishing under 2.5 goals (71%), including a staggering SIX 0-0s.
Wolfsburg are not your typical goal-crazy Bundesliga side, with them below average for both goals scored and goals conceded last season (for 48, against 46). And there’s signs of them struggling to break down teams they’re expected to beat in Europe too. Only 1-0 wins over both Oleksandria and St Etienne last season as well as a 1-1 draw with the French side.
Against Ukrainian side Desna as 1/5 favourites in the previous round it still needed a 92nd-minute goal to calm any nerves in a 2-0 win - despite the away side being reduced to 10 men on the hour mark.
Their opening two Bundesliga games show signs of stuttering as well with 0-0 and 1-1 draws with the underlying stats proving their offensive struggles, firing in the second-lowest amount of shots, hitting the target with just 1.50 per game – the lowest in the division. All signs point to a cagey game and 0-0 looks a worthy investment at 10/1 alongside under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at in AEK v Wolfsburg at Evens
Best bet: 0-0 draw in AEK v Wolfsburg at 11/1
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