The Europa League continues on Thursday with Chelsea and Arsenal in action. Tom Carnduff has 5/1, 6/1, 9/1 and 11/1 best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Olivier Giroud and Ruben Loftus-Cheek 4+ shots each in BATE v Chelsea at 6/1
1pt Lumor Agbenyenu to be shown a card in Arsenal v Sporting at 9/1
1pt Marcel Sabitzer to be shown a card in Celtic v RB Leipzig at 5/1
2pts Damian Kadzior to score anytime in Dinamo Zagreb v Spartak Trnava at 11/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
BATE v Chelsea
Borisov Arena, Group L, 1755 GMT, BT Sport 2
Victory here could secure first place in Group L and a spot in the knockout stages for Chelsea, and they should pick up three points away at BATE Borisov.
Maurizio Sarri's men have three wins from three in this competition so far. Borisov may sit bottom the group but PAOK's clash with Vidi means that they will still carry hopes of progression into the final group games.
Chelsea looked comfortable in their 3-1 victory over BATE in their meeting two weeks ago, with Ruben Loftus-Cheek the star in that one as he grabbed a hat-trick.
Alongside winning, a common theme amongst Chelsea's games in the Europa League so far is that they are having plenty of opportunities on goal. Their opening day win away at PAOK saw 22 shots in their favour, with that figure standing at 28 against Vidi and 23 in that win over Thursday's opponents.
Every single Chelsea player who started had an effort on goal in the 3-1 victory, including Callum Hudson-Odoi and Victor Moses who came off the bench in the second-half.
It's fair to expect a similar tally of shots here, with the forwards and midfield providing the main threat. I like the look of the stats markets here, especially the value in backing shots given track record.
Loftus-Cheek managed five shots against BATE, while Chelsea strikers have contributed 20 shots over the three group games so far (Alvaro Morata started v PAOK and Vidi, Olivier Giroud started against Borisov).
Giroud may have been quiet in his only start in this competition, but his two shots on goal in nine minutes after coming off the bench away at PAOK highlights how he isn't afraid to look for goal in Europe.
It is always difficult to find good prices in a game where one side is heavy 2/5 odds-on favourites, but the shots market is one definitely worth investigating for a best bet here.
Best bet: Olivier Giroud and Ruben Loftus-Cheek 4+ shots each at 6/1
Opta facts
- Chelsea defeated BATE Borisov 3-1 in the first ever meeting between these two sides in the preceding match day.
- BATE Borisov have now lost four of their five meetings with English clubs (W1). All matches were in the Europa League group stages.
- BATE have managed just two wins in their last 15 Europa League games (D5 L8), scoring 13 goals and conceding 33.
- Chelsea have now won six consecutive Europa League games, since a 2-3 defeat at Rubin Kazan in April 2013.
- Chelsea have had the most shots in the competition so far (73), while also facing fewer than any other team (15).
Arsenal v Sporting
Emirates Stadium, Group E, 2000 GMT, BT Sport 2
Like their London rivals, Arsenal also boast three wins from three and could extend their lead at the top with another victory over Sporting.
The Gunners managed to grab a 1-0 win away in Portugal last time out in this competition and will be full of confidence that they will claim more points at home.
Unai Emery's men are on an extraordinary 14-game unbeaten run in all competitions and they welcome a Sporting side with two losses in their last five games on the road.
Arsenal's power in attack is highlighted by the fact that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette are each odds-on to find the net anytime on Thursday night, with youngster Eddie Nketiah a general price of 5/4.
Sporting are on the lookout for a new manager following a poor start to the season. Jose Perseiro was sacked after they were beaten by GD Estoril Praia at home in the Portuguese domestic cup competition.
Tiago Fernandes has been placed in temporary charge while they look for a new manager. One thing of interest is how he introduced Lumor Agbenyenu to the starting XI in their win over Santa Clara at the weekend, a player who hadn't even made the squad in Liga NOS or the Europa League this season.
That could suggest that he will be given the start here, and at a huge 9/1, there is value in backing him to be shown a card against a talented Arsenal attack.
Lumor will likely by facing the talented Henrikh Mkhitaryan in attack, while Stephan Lichtsteiner is Arsenal's most fouled player in the Europa League and he could win them free-kicks in attacking positions.
I'd be happy to back a card even at the 5/1 general price available, and given his lack of game time prior to the managerial change, there is a high chance of a void bet should he not start in North London.
Opta facts
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their three meetings with Sporting CP (W2 D1), not conceding a single goal in those games.
- Sporting have lost each of their last four meetings with English opposition since beating Manchester City at home in the Europa League last 16 in 2011-12.
- Arsenal have won each of their last three games in major European competition – they haven’t won four such games in a row since a run of six between March – November 2005.
- Sporting have managed just four wins from their last 27 away games in major European competition (D4 L19), though one of those wins was last time out against Vorskla Poltava.
- Danny Welbeck has scored more goals in the Europa League than any other Arsenal player since the start of last season (5).
Celtic v RB Leipzig
Group B, Celtic Park, 2000 GMT, BT Sport 3
Defeat here could all-but-end Celtic's hopes of progression to the knock-out stages, and they face a difficult task against a strong Leipzig side.
The Bundesliga outfit sit second in the group with two wins from three, which is a decent return when you factor in that they have opted to play without star men Timo Werner, Emil Forsberg and Yussuf Poulsen for the majority of this tournament.
They were victorious in their only away game in this group so far, with a 3-1 win over Rosenborg making up for a surprise opening game defeat to FC Salzburg.
A win here will continue to put the pressure on their fellow Red Bull club, and will set them up nicely to potentially overtake Salzburg in the standings when they meet in Austria at the end of November.
The value here is in the cards, with Xavier Estrada Fernandez one of Spain's strictest referees.
He has shown at least four cards in every club game he has officiated this season, while there have been 50+ booking points in all-but-one of his eight games in charge.
There were three yellow cards in the last meeting between these two sides, while Celtic's defeat to Salzburg before that seeing four yellows and one red.
Given the referee appointment and the importance of the fixture at this point, there is a potential for a high card count here.
That could spell trouble for Marcel Sabitzer, with the winger having been shown four yellow cards already this season. He contributed an assist in the win over Celtic, but has been shown cards in three Bundesliga fixtures.
The 24-year-old has committed ten fouls in total this season, including two in two Europa League starts. Discipline is a weakness of his despite his talent on the ball, which could see him booked once again in Scotland.
Opta facts
- RB Leipzig beat Celtic 2-0 in the first ever competitive meeting between these two sides in the last round of matches.
- Celtic could only muster one shot on target in their last match against Leipzig, their lowest tally in a Europa League game since December 2015 (against Fenerbahce).
- Celtic have won just two of the last 16 Europa League games (D5 L9), both 1-0 home wins against Rosenborg and Zenit St Petersburg.
- RB Leipzig have scored at least two goals in their last four Europa league games, although they have conceded a total of nine in that time.
- RB Leipzig’s Mateus Cunha has scored in his last two Europa League games, and has had at least seven more shots at goal than any other Liepzig player in the competition (13).
Dinamo Zagreb v Trnava
Group D, Stadion Maksimir, 2000 BST
Zagreb will be looking to continue their perfect run in the Europa League so far as they welcome Trnava, who still have hopes of qualification to the knockout stages.
The hosts have maximum points after three games, including a 2-1 victory over the Slovakian outfit in the reverse fixture, and could wrap up top spot in the group with victory here.
My eye was immediately caught by the huge 11/1 available on Damian Kadzior scoring for the hosts. The 26-year-old has four goals and eight assists already this season with the majority coming in the league.
The price is available due to his limited game time in the Europa League. The winger is yet to start in Europe this season, although he did come off the bench against Fenerbahce and Trnava.
He is a player with talent in great form, which is why his price looks good even if he doesn't start here and finds himself as a second-half sub.
Kadzior did manage to have an opportunity on goal despite playing just 14 minutes in their comfortable home victory over Fenerbahce, and did net twice in just three minutes as a substitute away at NK Zelina in the Croatian domestic cup competition.
It is also worth noting that he also expressed a desire to play in European competition in a recent interview with Polish media outfit RMF24, saying "I want to play in every team match and I want to be number 1 in my position."
This selection carries the biggest risk because minutes on the pitch could be limited. Although, given the confidence he is playing with, he has every chance of striking even if he does start on the bench.
The fact that Trnava have lost just one of their last eight away in Europe could also see Zagreb boss Nenad Bjelica look to Kadzior to find a way through a stubborn defence.
The price of 11/1 is eye-catching, but there is value in backing it even if it does go down to around the 5/1 mark.
Best bet: Damian Kadzior to score anytime at 11/1
Opta facts
- Dinamo Zagreb won their only other meeting with Spartak Trnava in the reverse fixture last time out, running out 2-1 winners in Slovakia.
- Including qualifiers, Spartak Trnava have only lost one of their last eight away matches in European competition (W4 D3), though it was in their most recent such trip to Fenerbahce (0-2).
- Dinamo Zagreb have won each of their first three matches in the Europa League this season, that’s more than they have managed to do after six group games in any of their previous four campaigns in the competition.
- This is Spartak Trnava’s second ever visit to Croatia and the first since July 2004, when they drew 0-0 with Slaven Belupo Koprivnica in an Intertoto Cup encounter.
- Dinamo Zagreb have had six different goalscorers in this season’s Europa League (excluding own goals), only Sevilla (8) have had more in the competition so far.
Odds correct at 1640 GMT (07/11/18)
